I'm looking to beef up a scenerio involving Iran and the US. If the US had struck targets within Iran in order to uphold UE/UN sanctions and without an offensive attack by Iran (against Israel or the US) how would countries within the Arab League of Nations look at the attack on a brother country? I'm curious if heavily Arabic/Muslim countries such as Saudi Arabia, Oman, UAE and Bahrain would shun the attack, remain neutral or offer support? How about Turkey which is not within the Arab League but its majority religion is Muslim and has a significant US Air Force base within its borders (as Bahrain and the HQ of COMFIFTHFLT). Since I am not the expert on US/Arab relations I'm hoping others have read how some of these other countries feel about the Iran sanctions and the US military appearing to be staging (albeit not agressively) to enforce those sanctions?

 

Strategically I can see this being a difficult scenerio if the countries didn't offer as a minimum the use of their air space or in the case of Egypt not allowing passage through the Suez. Syria I think is obvious in their relations with Iran and Yemen could possibly harass ships coming out of the Red Sea with terroist speedboats I presume? Lots of hard, hypothetical questions, just looking for some easy answers though!

 

Steve

I think the big boys in the PG have generally tried to tread carefully in their politico-military relations. Yes, they snipe at each other sometimes - even militarily - but for the most part have avoided head on clashes.

 

Its rather difficult to guesstimate what exactly what might happen if there were strikes on Iran without there being any overt provocation.

 

Yes, places like the KSA and UAE would like to preserve their relationship with the USA (they have the really nice toys they want to buy!) but at the same time they have a challenging balancing act to maintain with their own populations and their position within the greater Mideast.

 

Recall that even the joint action against Saddam in 1990-91, who offered plenty of reason for his smackdown, caused a great deal of strain between the regional actors.

 

The 'Arab Spring' adds a further level of complexity and uncertainty. It still looks pretty dim in places like Libya and Egypt.

 

I can envision a situation where any number of local nations - US allies and otherwise - might choose to opt out of getting involved or even feel compelled to protest openly. Possibly worse.

Steve,

The nice nice thing about Harpoon is you can craft any number of different situations. It kind of reminds me of the war room sequences from the old movie "War Games." One thread I'm about to explore is a 50/50 split. Some Pan-Islamic countries siding with the US, while others (led by Turkey) come to Iran's defense. Needless to say, they are a monkey's paw for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) to keep the US and UK off balance.

Godspeed on your design. I'd like to see it when our done - you have my curiosity peeked!

 

FWFS,

Greg Emerson, DM1(SW), USN-Retired

Renton, WA, USA

Some Pan-Islamic countries siding with the US, while others (led by Turkey) come to Iran's defense. Needless to say, they are a monkey's paw for the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) to keep the US and UK off balance.

Godspeed on your design. I'd like to see it when our done - you have my curiosity peeked!

And I think that's what make this scenerio interresting. With Iran in the middle of the Arab/Islamic world and with Muslim followers have, until recently, been only followers of other Arabic/Muslim countries. As long as Iran keeps their guns holstered and doesn't provoke an attack by closing the strait or attacking Israel I think the US is going to have a tough time finding allies in the Arab world. I am a fellow sailor, I have all the faith in my US Navy and Armed Forces but I would not want to be in Vice Admiral Foxs' shoes right now. His 5th Fleet has their work cut out for them. Thanks both of you for your input.