North Korea 'had plan to attack Japan'

NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR THREAT / North Korea 'had plan to attack Japan'

The Yomiuri Shimbun

An agreement adopted at the latest round of six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear program stipulates two-phase measures toward Pyongyang's denuclearization in return for energy support.

This second series of articles on the threats posed by North Korea's nuclear program, following the first series carried last month, takes a close look at the background to the agreement reached at the six-party talks.

This is the fifth and last installment of the series.

What appears to be a simple maritime accident can have very different implications in the eyes of military experts.

On Jan. 9, a U.S. Navy nuclear submarine collided with a large Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. tanker in the Persian Gulf, causing damage to the submarine's bow and the tanker's stern. The accident itself was not serious, but Koh Young Choul, a former South Korean National Defense Ministry officer in charge of intelligence covering North Korea, analyzed it as follows:

"It was highly likely that the nuclear submarine hid itself in bubbles created by the commercial ship's screws to sneak past surveillance by Iran," Koh, 53, said. "That's the best way for a submarine to slip through airplane patrol searches."

"Even North Korea's old-fashioned submarines could come close to Japan in the same way," he added.

There is nothing to worry about if North Korea has no intention of attacking Japan. However, that was not the case in the past. According to Koh, North Korea mapped out a plan to attack the Japanese archipelago, called Operation Mt. Paektu No. 3, 10 years ago, when it deployed Rodong ballistic missiles.

Mt. Paektu, which stands on the North Korean border with China, is considered a sacred site by Koreans and also a symbolic place, having served as a bastion for anti-Japanese guerrillas during World War II.

According to Koh, part of the Mt. envisioned Paektu operation went as follows:

Immediately after starting a war, Rodong missiles would be launched, targeting U.S. bases in Sasebo, Nagasaki Prefecture, Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture, and other locations in Japan, as well as more than 50 reactors at nuclear power plants. In the meantime, ballistic missiles loaded with chemical warheads would be launched at Tokyo.

After that, commando units aboard submarines would enter Japan and carry out guerrilla attacks against important facilities.

For North Korea, U.S. military power is a threat. However, Pyongyang, which has an energy shortage problem, does not have any option in war other than a quick, decisive battle against the United States. Therefore, the best strategy for North Korea is to bring the war to an early ceasefire by inflicting maximum damage on Japan first. Such a scenario is a nightmare for Japan, but it could actually become a reality.

In autumn 2005, the Ground Self-Defense Force secretly conducted a security exercise at its garrison in northern Japan under the scenario that the garrison was a nuclear power plant. Two GSDF companies, or 300 personnel, were mobilized and put on alert around the garrison. Their mission during the drill was to block elite rangers, playing the role of North Korean commandos, from infiltrating the facilities.

The GSDF members who did not know each other were divided into friends and foes. Consequently, GSDF members acting as North Korean agents studied the situation around the garrison for several days before the exercise, and easily succeeded in entering the garrison by disguising themselves as construction workers or soft drink deliverers. In one case, some of the agents got into the garrison through a tunnel they made under a fence in only about 20 or 30 minutes.

"It's difficult to destroy a nuclear power plant with small firearms such as rocket-propelled grenades, but there's a possibility that infiltrators could capture the entire plant by causing a blackout to disable security sensors," a senior GSDF officer said.

The only way to prevent infiltration is to boost security manpower. However, the senior officer said, "With less than 150,000 members in total, the GSDF has a limited capacity to allocate its personnel to guard important facilities nationwide and monitor the coast."

"Even if we provide security jointly with police, we won't be able to protect [important facilities] if the mission is prolonged," the senior officer added.

Although North Korea's nuclear program was the major topic at the latest six-party talks, Pyongyang, behind the scenes, demanded the United States stop its joint military exercises with South Korea and its deployment of cutting-edge fighter jets to U.S. bases in Japan and South Korea. There is no doubt that North Korea will--from now on, too--try to seize every opportunity to erode Japanese, South Korean, and U.S. military power.

The six-party talks will inevitably become protracted. Japan could end up in an even more dangerous situation if North Korea is given more time to advance its goal of strengthening its military power, centered on nuclear weapons.

Is Japan well prepared? It is time to look at the country's present position with fresh eyes.