Yishten

Just testing us, I guess. OK, back to the overall plan of convoy movement until something else happens, radars still running.

That'll be the plan, then. We will give continued persistent advisement that continued approach will be considered hostile, and I'll hold off on firing on the helo unless it gets to roughly the range of the 130 (which I'd have to look up when I get home) or 5 nm, whichever is less.

I agree it seems odd for this to be a serious attack, though I can't imagine what gain they are hoping for exposing their pilots and equipment to harm in such a feint. Anyway, I'm fine with holding fire. From what I can tell, their longest range likely weapon would be something in th 3.5 nm range, so I'm comfortable holding off on firing until maybe 4.5-5 nm.

What do you think, CV32 (Brad, was it? I'm James, btw). I think the helo has had adequate warning. I'm inclined to classify it as hostile and swat it down at the 13 nm mark, much as I would have done for the presumptive F4-E.

Based on the speed, if I had to guess I'd say an AB-204 off an ex-Sumner. Second guess would be an AB-212 or maybe the SeaCobra. I favor the ABs because my gut says it's here to keep tabs on us and rotate out the P3-F rather than make an attack run, though of course those aren't mutually exclusive options. It's going slower than I'd have expected from a 214.

Ah. Yes, no problems now. I'll stick with my previously stated plans.

I think it's accurate-- we do appear to have moved quite a bit. I'm a bit surprised the aircraft-- at least the presumed F-4E-- has that kind of loiter endurance. Maybe drop tanks? H018 gets the standard ID requests and warnings. I can't anticipate any other changes to our plans until new data or closer approach-- assuming no answer or answer identifying as Iranian and continued approach, classify hostile; final warning at 25 nm; fire at 13 nm. On a tech note: although all earlier turn files could be opened with no difficulty, this one throws an unhandled exception error: "Add failed. Duplicate key value supplied." I have copy-pasted the Details section below. If I hit Continue, it seems to load fine and, at least as near as I can tell, all the relevant data is displayed, though if I then try to load another turn file, it fails. Details: See the end of this message for details on invoking just-in-time (JIT) debugging instead of this dialog box. ************** Exception Text ************** System.ArgumentException: Add failed. Duplicate key value supplied. at Microsoft.VisualBasic.Collection.Add(Object Item, String Key, Object Before, Object After) at SimPlot_Viewer.FileLoad.LoadBearings(String[] textline) at SimPlot_Viewer.FileLoad.Load(String path) at SimPlot_Viewer.Form1.MenuLoad_Click(Object sender, EventArgs e) at System.Windows.Forms.ToolStripItem.RaiseEvent(Object key, EventArgs e) at System.Windows.Forms.ToolStripMenuItem.OnClick(EventArgs e) at System.Windows.Forms.ToolStripItem.HandleClick(EventArgs e) at System.Windows.Forms.ToolStripItem.HandleMouseUp(MouseEventArgs e) at System.Windows.Forms.ToolStripItem.FireEventInteractive(EventArgs e, ToolStripItemEventType met) at System.Windows.Forms.ToolStripItem.FireEvent(EventArgs e, ToolStripItemEventType met) at System.Windows.Forms.ToolStrip.OnMouseUp(MouseEventArgs mea) at System.Windows.Forms.ToolStripDropDown.OnMouseUp(MouseEventArgs mea) at System.Windows.Forms.Control.WmMouseUp(Message& m, MouseButtons button, Int32 clicks) at System.Windows.Forms.Control.WndProc(Message& m) at System.Windows.Forms.ScrollableControl.WndProc(Message& m) at System.Windows.Forms.ToolStrip.WndProc(Message& m) at System.Windows.Forms.ToolStripDropDown.WndProc(Message& m) at System.Windows.Forms.Control.ControlNativeWindow.OnMessage(Message& m) at System.Windows.Forms.Control.ControlNativeWindow.WndProc(Message& m) at System.Windows.Forms.NativeWindow.Callback(IntPtr hWnd, Int32 msg, IntPtr wparam, IntPtr lparam) ************** Loaded Assemblies ************** mscorlib Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 4.6.1586.0 built by: NETFXREL2 CodeBase: file:///C:/Windows/Microsoft.NET/Framework/v4.0.30319/mscorlib.dll ---------------------------------------- SimPlot Viewer Assembly Version: 0.9.1.0 Win32 Version: 0.9.1.0 CodeBase: file:///C:/Users/yisht/Desktop/SimPlot%20Viewer/SimPlot%20Viewer.exe ---------------------------------------- Microsoft.VisualBasic Assembly Version: 10.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 14.6.1586.0 built by: NETFXREL2 CodeBase: file:///C:/WINDOWS/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/Microsoft.VisualBasic/v4.0_10.0.0.0__b03f5f7f11d50a3a/Microsoft.VisualBasic.dll ---------------------------------------- System Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 4.6.1586.0 built by: NETFXREL2 CodeBase: file:///C:/WINDOWS/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System/v4.0_4.0.0.0__b77a5c561934e089/System.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Core Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 4.6.1586.0 built by: NETFXREL2 CodeBase: file:///C:/WINDOWS/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Core/v4.0_4.0.0.0__b77a5c561934e089/System.Core.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Windows.Forms Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 4.6.1586.0 built by: NETFXREL2 CodeBase: file:///C:/WINDOWS/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Windows.Forms/v4.0_4.0.0.0__b77a5c561934e089/System.Windows.Forms.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Drawing Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 4.6.1586.0 built by: NETFXREL2 CodeBase: file:///C:/WINDOWS/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Drawing/v4.0_4.0.0.0__b03f5f7f11d50a3a/System.Drawing.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Runtime.Remoting Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 4.6.1586.0 built by: NETFXREL2 CodeBase: file:///C:/WINDOWS/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Runtime.Remoting/v4.0_4.0.0.0__b77a5c561934e089/System.Runtime.Remoting.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Configuration Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 4.6.1586.0 built by: NETFXREL2 CodeBase: file:///C:/WINDOWS/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Configuration/v4.0_4.0.0.0__b03f5f7f11d50a3a/System.Configuration.dll ---------------------------------------- System.Xml Assembly Version: 4.0.0.0 Win32 Version: 4.6.1586.0 built by: NETFXREL2 CodeBase: file:///C:/WINDOWS/Microsoft.Net/assembly/GAC_MSIL/System.Xml/v4.0_4.0.0.0__b77a5c561934e089/System.Xml.dll ---------------------------------------- ************** JIT Debugging ************** To enable just-in-time (JIT) debugging, the .config file for this application or computer (machine.config) must have the jitDebugging value set in the system.windows.forms section. The application must also be compiled with debugging enabled. For example: <configuration> <system.windows.forms jitDebugging="true" /> </configuration> When JIT debugging is enabled, any unhandled exception will be sent to the JIT debugger registered on the computer rather than be handled by this dialog box.

The merchants are keeping their radars off, but yes, that's right.

Seems likely. I don't think we can get close enough to them to attack them if they don't want us to. So just continue with the overall movement of the convoy, keeping the radars active?

He'll get closer to Stoykiy and the approaching fighter though, I think.

Yes, the rest of the ships will maintain.

Although any move more easterly than about 020T would pretty rapidly pull out out of overlapping range envelopes, a sprint by Ladnyy at like 000T or thereabout would actually improve our mutual support position before it deteriorated it any.

I doubt they'd just send the one F-4E also. Firing on them as soon as they enter the range envelope is probably as close to truly seizing the initiative as we are gonna get against the fighters, but at least we have a free hand to engage the ships (once we find them) on our terms once hostilities have been initiated. If you were going to maneuver to see how they react, I'd be tempted to suggest moving toward the P-3F. I will have to review the annex before I could figure out the realities, and I'd be hesitant to put ourselves in a position of not being able to support one another, but if we could work out the details it's possible the implied threat to their tattletale might provoke a reaction.

I think 3.3.5.7 would be the rule-- and if so, looks like you're instincts were dead on, it would be 15 minutes to simultaneously fuel and alert the Hormone, able to launch 5 or more minutes thereafter. Regardless, either way, I'm happy with the 15 minute number, will respect not launching until at least 5 minutes after that 15 minute number, and really am not intending to launch the Hormone while we're in the middle of a sea of Iranian fighters. Which, incidentally: I'd go ahead and classify A017 as hostile. So, yeah, A017 gets a request for ID and to stand off 25 nm from the convoy. At 35 nm that request gets repeated. At 25 nm, a final message advises "Presumed Iranian F4-E approaching the convoy 80 nm off the coast of Bahrain: I am instructing you to stand off 25 nm from this convoy. Given recent tensions, failure to comply will be viewed as hostile intent, and will be met accordingly. This is the final warning." Get FC radars going at that time. At 13 nm, assuming CV32 is in agreement, I will fire up to 3 Uragan (SAN-7a) at A017.

Well, I have little desire to turn off my radars now that we have probable F4-Es inbound. When I have a discrete contact and reason to surmise it's approaching, I'd be inclined to repeat my request for identification and, assuming either no answer or an answer identifying it as Iranian, a request to stand off 25 nm from the convoy. If the contact approaches within 35 nm, I'd repeat that request and make sure I was in a position to bring weapons to bear if need be.

I did, but that was my error from not speaking Russian and getting two (to me) similar words mixed up: it's actually the Monolit radar. It's range is better than the MR-750 surface search functions (if I'm understanding correctly how it works) and does not come near to exceeding the horizon. I shouldn't need the Vaygach-Us unless the Monolit were damaged. If A014 were to exceed 150 nm range or we were to lose the APS-115 ESM contact without other contacts in the interim, I would want to consider shutting down our radar, altering course, and seeing if we could regain anonymity. I don't think that opportunity will come to pass. Otherwise, though, my plan would be to continue with the maneuver of approaching the coast then turning toward Kuwait City, with the radar on and looking for sign of further contact or hostile activity. My plan would be to refuel and alert the Hormone as noted, and when it's ready, look to sending it back out for another sweep.

Okay. Well let's go ahead and classify that as hostile then. Obviously we'd be inclined to respond to any hostile acts or new contacts. Otherwise, though, I don't think we're prepared to initiate hostilities yet. I think we might as well get the Moskit surface search radar going, too-- it's got better range. When the Hormone gets home I'd like to begin the process of refueling and alerting to send it up again. I'd also like to "request" the Iranian forces-- via this aircraft-- respect a 25 nm "safety perimeter" around our entirely legal convoy, in the interest of avoiding unintended mishaps given recent hostilities.

Alright. We'll want to do that, then.

Although we've been operating under the presumption that this is a P3-F, I suppose I cannot say that I know it's not a P3-C-- unlike the previous scenario, I don't have a good idea as to where to expect the enemy to be. I'd leave it classified as neutral for now. It goes beyond anything I think the rules cover: are we able to ask it to identify itself?

I don't disagree. Ok, so orders as previously, but let's amend to get that 3D radar on as soon as possible.

The contact is about 75 nm from our convoy. I'd have to pull out the annex but at least the large merchant should have been in range in the 130s, Stoykiy and other mediums in the 100s, and everyone else about now.

The likelihood that our convoy has not been detected seems pretty low at this point, and whatever it is seems pretty intent at flying right at the Hormone. Since I don't think A014 could have visual on the Hormone yet, I assume this is using the ESM bearing, so I think it best to deactivate the Hormone's radar, turn to 250T and fly 12 nm at FMP, then return to the ship. Maybe I can preserve the Hormone and keep it out of visual sighting. I am tempted to activate the MR-750 in 3D mode to get some eyes up. If it becomes evident that A014 is turning to bear toward the convoy or when it comes within 50 nm of the convoy, or if it makes any other apparent potentially hostile action, whichever comes first, I intend to do so. Certainly at that point, it would be reasonable to try to ask the contact to identify itself and, depending on its actions, advise it to turn away.

Oh, no, I didn't doubt that. Rather, I simply meant that even if nothing of apparent significance changes in the next say 12 minutes I'm still likely to change my current orders at that time. Exactly how I might change them would depend on whether anything does change over that timeframe.

So I'm curious: are both ESMs picking this up, or just one? And, though it's not relevant to the new information: the Hormone is already emitting? (The clarified flight plan for the Hormone, as noted previously, is to maintain 310T for 60 nm, then cease emitting and descend to VLow still maintaining 310T, then turn to 130T and travel for 40 nm in that direction, then turn to return directly to the ship, barring other contacts or changes, at cruise speed for all of this). So, this contact. Since I'm unsure of any annex data specifically, and internet searching is failing me, I'm unsure if a P3-F mounts an APS-115 or not. I think I just want to keep an eye on the ESM for now-- I estimate a roughly 5-10 minute probable window before the convoy is likely to be detected (actually, quite possibly less because of the size of the Maykop), probably another 10-15 minutes before there's much danger from a worst-case scenario (e.g, assuming it's a P3-F and assuming that a P3-F also mounts Harpoons like a P3-C). So I don't want to wait a full 30 minutes before making a new decision, but I would think 10-15 would be safe. My intention would be to continue current plan until that time.

Certainly to clarify the intention was for the Hormone to come to 310T after separation and before climbing to altitude, to begin transmitting only after climbing to altitude, to cease transmitting before descending, and to descend to V low before turning away from 310T. It's also reasonable to first fly back reciprocally at say 130T for some nm before turning to approach the convoy. I'll write out the clearer flight plan in full when I get back to a computer tonight.