HG S2 (Intel Bot)

By Phil Keith with Tom Clavin, Hanover Square Press [HarperCollins], (2022) Reviewed by John Grady “To the Uttermost Ends of the Earth” is one of the best works aimed at a general audience on the naval aspects of the Civil War. Phil Keith and Tom Clavin have brought back to life one of the most rakish figures of the war, Raphael Semmes, the Maryland-born Confederate raider and given much needed attention to John Winslow, the North Carolinian and relentless hunter of his former shipmate who was then commanding CSS Alabama. The CSS Alabama’s record of taking more than 60 vessels registered in the United States during its cruising of the world’s oceans remains a telling factor even today of the diminished place America holds as a maritime trading power. Insurance rates for oceanic trade under the U.S. flag skyrocketed with each sinking on the high seas caused by Confederate commerce raiders, including the lesser known but still successful strikes of CSS Florida and CSS Georgia. Semmes and the able John Kell, his executive officer, set the standard for raiders in commanding the renamed Hull Number 290 built at the Laird Shipyard in Birkenhead, across the Mersey River from Liverpool. Keith, who died before “To the Ends of the Earth” was published this spring, and Clavin provide the general reader a useful guide as to how the Confederacy, though recognized as a “belligerent” power by Great Britain, France, and other nations, should never have been allowed to build a disguised warship in supposedly neutral country and worse yet take on board foreign nationals from that country as crew. For the nitty-gritty of how that worked – through phony buyers – see James D. Bulloch’s masterful two-volume The Confederate Secret Service in Europe, first published in 1884 but still available today. Bulloch, Theodore Roosevelt’s uncle, was the master of the art of duplicity in building and buying ships that appeared to be merchantmen but were “commissioned” in international waters as Confederate warships. Let’s simply say official eyes in governments in London and Paris were averted. Keith and Clavin, co-authors of the best-selling “All Blood Runs Red,” also perform a remarkable service in tracing how each captain, both men in their 50s, took to their mission. Even using the best Navy charts, ironically done under the direction of Matthew Fontaine Maury who was then serving the Confederacy, on the best sailing routes between key points, Winslow, commanding USS Kearsarge, faced the daunting challenge of finding a tiny moving object operating from the Azores to Cape Town to Singapore. Semmes’ use of the same charts had been essential in falling on unsuspecting merchantmen. But he faced major problems as weeks slipped into months and months to more than a year. First, CSS Alabama had no easy access to admiralty courts willing to auction of its captures as “prizes,” and then splitting the take among captain, officers, and crew. What the raiders were reduced to was emptying safes of specie and currency, confiscating nautical instruments, taking necessary supplies – meat, vegetables, flour, etc. from the captive vessel, finding a place to release the crew, and then torching it. American merchantmen were soon falsifying papers of ownership or staying in port. More troubling yet for Semmes’ crew’s physical and mental health and the continued operation of CSS Alabama, there were really no ports even at “the uttermost ends of the earth” where the men could have extended shore leave and the ship attended to after battering months at sea. Semmes counted himself lucky when he could buy additional coal in a closely-watched foreign port. These fuel stops also alerted U.S. consuls and agents to Alabama’s presence, and they sent word to Washington and gave key information to other U.S. Navy vessels operating nearby. For Winslow those tips and his knowledge of the charts led Kearsarge to being in the right place at the right time when it came to finally bagging Semmes. Credit also must go to the training demands laid on by his executive officer James Thornton to the gunners when the showdown came off the French coast. Where the authors shine is recounting the battle off Cherbourg – both in understanding weather, seas, the moves of the two captains and the vessels’ conditions as warships which were vitally important to the outcome. The fouled condition of Alabama’s powder, suspected for weeks and known before the battle assured Winslow’s victory. As proof, time and again, Kearsarge suffered little damage despite being at close range of Semmes’ guns. The hundreds watching from the shore through the smoke had an imperfect gauge as to what was happening six miles away which resulted in the sinking of the Alabama on June 19, 1864. Rather than surrendering to Winslow, the wounded Semmes, however, was taken aboard a British-owned vessel and escaped capture. This action set off a firestorm of anger in the Union Navy and official Washington. It was one reason he was arrested after the war to face a military commission, rather than be granted a parole although the charges were ultimately dropped. John Grady is the author of Matthew Fontaine Maury, Father of Oceanography and writes for the U.S. Naval Institute. Tom Clavin is a New York Times bestselling author of books of history and nonfiction. He has worked as a newspaper and website editor, magazine writer, TV and radio commentator, and a reporter for the New York Times. He has received awards from the Society of Professional Journalists, Marine Corps Heritage Foundation, and National Newspaper Association. Phil Keith is the author of several books, including Blackhorse Riders, which won the 2012 award from USA Book News for Best Military Nonfiction, was a finalist for the 2013 Colby Award, and earned a 2013 silver medal from the Military Writers Society of America. He holds a degree in history from Harvard and is a former US Navy aviator. During three tours in Vietnam, he served with distinction and was awarded, among other decorations, the Purple Heart, the Air Medal, the Presidential Unit Citation, and the Navy Commendation Medal. To the Uttermost Ends of the Earth, The Epic Hunt for the South’s Most Feared Ship – and the Greatest Sea Battle of the Civil War. By Tom Calvin and Phil Keith (Hanover Square Press [HarperCollins]: 2022) The post To the Uttermost Ends of the Earth, The Epic Hunt for the South’s Most Feared Ship – and the Greatest Sea Battle of the Civil War first appeared on Naval Historical Foundation. View the full article

The last few weeks have been filled with discussions about possible Russian use of tactical nuclear weapons – probably in a demonstration first – because of their collapsing conventional war in Ukraine. There are lots of different scenarios/vignettes you can go through and could spend all day or more on each one, but I’d like to pull one out for you today that brings together a few threads we’ve seen the last nine months. Here are the threads we are going to pull in to the primary subject of this wargame: the Russian Federation decides to demonstrate their willingness to use tactical nuclear weapons. Threads common to this war so far: Russian “gun decking” of material readiness.Russian culture of not delivering bad news and hoping for the best.Ineffectiveness and lack of trust in Russian Air Force manned aircraft capabilities.Reliance on rocket forces.Russian leadership has no option but victory. Facts: Due to the test ban treaty, the Russians have not been able to test their nuclear warheads in decades. The two parts of the nuclear triad most visible to Western eyes – submarines and manned aircraft – have all demonstrated spotty levels of performance and maintenance in the post-Soviet era. One can assume the missile forces have comparable, if not worse, records.Open source reporting reflects that even the most basic of Russian weapons, like HE artillery rounds, have a higher than acceptable failure rate. Assumptions: Russians decide for an air-burst demonstration shot vice a tactical use on the front lines. The Russian’s relatively benign high altitude airburst will not mirror Western ideas of a demonstration shot over water, but will instead drive the point home by doing it over Ukraine between Kyiv and the Donbass.The 448th Rocket Brigade of the 20th Guards Combined Army based out of Kursk was the last Russian Army unit to be equipped with the SS-21 (Tochka-U) and in 2019 converted to the SS-26 (Iskander-M). However, we know that SS-21 have been used by the Russians in Ukraine, so we can assume that the last unit to convert would be the first to bring them back.The SS-26 transition has been a slow one with substantial SS-21s remaining with the brigade that enabled them to quickly use the SS-21 from the start of the war.We can assume that the SS-26 coming in to use are mostly conventional to save money and trouble. They need to keep the nuclear capability on the books, so they will have their special weapons crews remain in Kursk with their few remaining nuclear armed SS-21. That sets the table, and here is what I would like wargamed…and what I think will be different. I’m not interested in flash-bangs etc … no … I want something much more difficult. I want something that will stress the diplomatic and political structures of the USA, EU, and NATO. Before Turn-1, here is what happens (I attempted to be exceptionally abbreviated but I can’t help myself). President Putin orders a demonstration shot, but specifically states that he wants it overhead Ukraine as outlined above. Putin does not trust the ability of cruise missiles or manned aircraft to successfully deliver a weapon where and how he wants it, and absolutely no strategic forces are to be used (so the Russian Navy good idea fairies can stow their wings).Colonel Dmitry Nikolayevich Martynov, Commander of the 448th is forward deployed in theater with his forces and all of a sudden has is Deputy Commander Lieutenant Colonel Igor Ivanovihe Karamyshev showing up in his command vehicle telling him that he is ordered by Moscow to get on the Mi-17 he arrived in and return to Kursk.Upon arrival, Martynov is walked in to a briefing led by Shoigu himself and is given his orders; he has 72-hrs.Martynov leaves and contemplates that, yes, they have three nuclear certified crews in Kursk, but they are not his best. His best crews are forward deployed. These are the sick, old, or otherwise best left home crews. Yes, they can launch, but … he's keeping the details to himself.Also, the Transport Erector Launchers (TEL) are not his best, his best are forward deployed.His nuclear certified ordinance crews … well, they are specialists. They never deploy and when he last walked through the nuclear magazine, all seemed in order. All paperwork is in order. As long as the TEL’s can drive 5-km, the 448th should be good to go.D-3: Shoigu insists that they have a “Primary,” “Back-up,” and “Ready Spare” for the strike (as is expected), which is great as they only have three nuclear warheads good to go. .D-2: some low-level USA Joint Staff J2 types received notice of Shoigu’s movement to Kursk and even saw in another report Martynov’s unusual return to Kursk – but this is not of great concern - just another Colonel. Shoigu’s movements are worth briefing – but not Martynov.D-1: a separate NATO J2 shop notices some unusual, but not unheard of, movements around the 448th’s magazines in Kursk, but in a sea of data, is barely acknowledged. In DC and Brussels, a series of high-level short notice briefings are taking place that has the staff curious, but that is not unusual so far this year. However, some pasty looking officers are going in to brief no one really sees around often. Huh.D+0 (early): TELs are set to move, but TEL-2’s transmission shit-the-bed halfway out the shelter, so the “Ready Spare” of TEL-3 is now the “Backup.”D+0 (mid-day): Final launch orders received. "Dial-a-Yield" was set earlier to .5-kilotons with airburst at 10km. “We’re here to make a point, not destroy resources we want later.” The Colonel mumbles to himself as he attempts to remain calm as he slowly realized what he is about to do. Target 320-km away; the Voloshanska Dacha Ornithological Reserve in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. TEL-1 launch successful. However, word is received 10 very sober minutes later, no detonation. Orders are clear; TEL-3 begins checklist and 2-minutes later TEL-2 has another successful launch.The crews remain in place. Martynov steps out of his command vehicle, gets in a staff car and drives over to TEL-1. He’s a hands-on leader and wants to thank them for a job well done, duty, etc. He then gets back in the staff car to visit TEL-3 when he gets a call on the radio from Major Aleksey Aleksandrovich Kondratev who he left in charge of the command vehicle. "Return immediately."As he pulls up, he see’s a GRU truck full of security pulling in, “дерьмо.” Four and a half a kilometers west of the woods of Volvoshanka at the bus stop in the village of Orlivs’ke, a farmer’s hears the high-pitched screech of what is to her, ten months in to the war clearly a missile. At the end of the street she sees something hit the ground. She walks to the southeast 50-meters towards the crossroad at the edge of her brother’s field and there it is in her neighbor’s yard. A small crowd gathers to look at it and about 10 minutes later a few guys from the Territorial Army arrive to shoosh everyone away. Once they finish that, everyone looks to the southeast again over the field where one of the kids is pointing. Something else just fell at what looks like 500 meters away the field. Another dud. Everyone looks at each other. What a lucky little village. The war hasn’t reached them yet, and when for some reason it did, nothing blew up. So, there is a bit more story than I wanted to do, but it was fun – for me at least. Here is where the wargame starts. No one knows it but the Russians right now, but at D+0 the Russians just tried to do an airburst over Ukraine between Kyiv and the Donbass – they actually tried twice – but neither missile detonated. We have a few things to play out: Red (Russia): What are your possible COAs from here? Blue (USA/NATO): What will it take for you to know exactly what happened here without inside sources? (judge will determine how many turns Red gets before Blue/Green/White know) Green (UKR): How long will it take for Ukrainian EOD to get there and realize that is no normal warhead on that SS-21? White (International Organizations/neutral nations/Pope/etc): Possible reactions and timelines. …and no – in what I consider the infinitesimally small chance the Russians would ever use tactical nuclear weapons in UKR (non-zero, but close to it) – I don’t think this scenario is outside a half-standard deviation either side from the centerline. Also, I may have some technical details incorrect here. If you feel the need to be pedantic, roll in the comments, I can take it. View the full article

Americas General Dynamics won a $533 million deal for Lead Yard Support and Development Studies and Design efforts related to Virginia-class submarines. The deal includes options which, if exercised, would bring the cumulative value of the modification to $813,720,300. The Virginia-Class new attack submarine is an advanced stealth multimission nuclear-powered submarine for deep ocean anti-submarine warfare and littoral (shallow water) operations. Work will take place in Connecticut and Virginia. Expected completion will be by October 2023. Thomas Instrument won a $13.6 million deal for depot-level overhaul services of the C-5 dual-powered winch, National Stock Number 1680-01-593-5680/Part Number 200413780-20. Work will be performed at Brookshire, Texas, and is expected to be completed by September 29, 2027. Middle East & Africa Shipbuilder Israel Shipyards has launched its new multi-mission offshore patrol vessel (OPV) S-45 for enhanced coastal protection by the Israeli Navy. The company launched the tailored-made ship at its headquarters in the port city of Haifa on September 29. Israel Shipyards said the S-45 is a cost-effective watercraft designed for coastal protection, drilling rigs, and offshore facilities protection. The Royal Moroccan Army has procured advanced military drones from China as part of its continuing effort to bolster its air defense capabilities. Among the systems reportedly purchased was the Wing Loong II medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). Developed by Chengdu Aircraft Design & Research Institute, the Wing Loong II is originally intended to support surveillance and reconnaissance missions. Europe The Irish Defense Forces will be getting at least three new primary search radars, after Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform confirmed that part of the defense budget has been allocated for such a purchase. The need for primary search radars was highlighted in a report by the Commission on the Defence Forces in February of this year. A number of anonymous sources told The Journal that the primary radar should have the equivalent capability of the Lockheed Martin TPY-4. Ireland currently relies on secondary radars and this will not work if the aircraft is not using a transponder. Asia-Pacific The Philippine military has sent eight Autonomous Truck Mounted Howitzer System (ATMOS 2000) 155mm self-propelled guns to Mindanao to support counter-terrorism operations in the southern region. According to Defense Undersecretary Jose Faustino, Jr., the Israeli-made artillery systems are game-changing assets “that will bolster the military’s territorial defense capabilities as well as internal security operations.” Today’s Video WATCH: Elbit Systems / ATMOS View the full article

Americas The US Navy awarded Raytheon Technologies a $232.8 million deal to procure material and support equipment for depot maintenance facilities and unit level support equipment, as well as to provide program administrative support for non-recurring sustainment activities and supplies, services, and planning for depot standup and expansion in support of the for the F-35 Lightning II Program. Work will take place in Connecticut, Florida, Oklahoma. Japan, Norway, Australia, Indiana, Netherlands, North Carolina and Arizona. Expected completion will be by September 2025. The Navy awarded Raytheon a $225.7 million deal for AIM-9X Block II and Block II+ System Improvement Program Increment IV to include hardware and software development to the AIM-9X system as well as test and integration of developed hardware and capabilities. More specifically the hardware development will include updates to the AIM-9X sensor, electronics unit, and guidance unit and the software efforts include the development of the operational flight software versions 10.5 and 11.5 and integrated flight software. Additionally, this contract provides program protection, cyber security, information assurance and training for the AIM-9X system. Work will take place in Arizona, California, Pennsylvania and Utah. Estimated completion will be in September 2027. Middle East & Africa Turkey said on Sunday it had “neutralized,” the term its defense ministry usually employs for killed, some 30 members of the banned Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in separate cross-border operations in Iraq and Syria. Turkey regularly carries out cross-border air strikes, often with armed drones, in neighboring Iraq and Syria as part of its offensive against PKK militants based there. Europe The recently concluded sinking exercise (SINKEX) called Atlantic Thunder 22 allowed Combat Air Crew Six (CAC-6) from VP-9 to execute a coordinated time-on-target using Harpoon anti-ship missiles with the British Royal Navy’s HMS Westminster. The target was decommissioned Oliver Hazard Perry Class frigate ex-USS Boone. A time-on-target strike is when all munitions arrived on the target nearly at the same time. Using Naval Integrated Fires (NIFE), the target coordinates were transmitted to HMS Westminster for the warship to launch two Harpoons passively. That was the first time NIFE has been used to carry out an attack on a real target in a multinational environment. Asia-Pacific The Taiwanese Navy has inducted a new, indigenously-made amphibious warship to transport troops and military supplies to vulnerable islands. The development is part of the country’s push for self-sufficiency in defense and its continuing modernization efforts amid increasing pressure from China. Named after Taipei’s tallest mountain, the 10,000-ton Yu Shan is equipped with a forward cannon for air and surface targets. Hyundai Rotem has entered into a collaborative agreement with Norway’s Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace to develop unmanned turrets for next-generation military vehicles. The South Korean firm said a memorandum of understanding was signed by the two companies during the DX Korea 2022 defense exhibition in Goyang. Today’s Video WATCH: Just How Powerful is America’s AIM-9X Sidewinder Missile View the full article

On paper and in theory, one would think that a nation who love-hates NATO only slightly less than she love-hates the USA, and is always looking for an opportunity to - now that the UK yeet'd itself out of the EU - nudge Germany out of the way so she can be seen as THE leader of Europe, would take the lead in supporting Ukraine in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Of course, I'm talking about France; If France wants to lead Europe to a new era of military self-reliance, how come its contribution to the war effort in Ukraine is so small? That is the awkward question being posed by some of the country's top strategic thinkers, who are pushing President Emmanuel Macron to make an urgent decision on more arms to Kyiv. Recent analysis conducted on the ground in Poland and Ukraine shows that the French share of foreign arms deliveries is less than 2%, way behind the US on 49%, but also behind Poland (22%) and Germany (9%). "I was concerned about the reliability of the statistics which showed France low on the list of contributing countries," says François Heisbourg, who is perhaps France's most influential defence analyst. "So I went out to the main distribution hub in Poland to see how much in tonnage was actually being delivered, rather than just promised. "Unfortunately the figures bore out my fears. France is way down the list - in ninth position." We hear the same old excuses that we are used to hearing from other nations (FRA actually spends a bit over 2% GDP on defense), who free-ride in NATO; ...defence officials say the true measure of military help is quality not quantity. Some countries are delivering masses of outdated equipment. France has given 18 Caesar self-propelled artillery units, which are now celebrated along the Ukrainian front-line. France, they add, is like other Western countries in having run down military stocks as part of the post-Cold War peace dividend. You know there's a "but" on the way ... and this is the point I raised to surprising response over the weekend on twitter; Ukraine's Caesars are fully one quarter of France's entire mobile artillery. It cannot offer much more without making itself vulnerable in regions where it is already committed, like the Sahel and the Indo-Pacific. 18 = 25%. Yikes. Yes, the nation that pretty much invented modern artillery on the battlefield is that short. Amazing, and she desires to be a major player on the stage? She's a continental power...but in theory only. How to fix on the whole? That is a great question with a complicated answer I'm not sure we can do justice to here. How do you possibly fix her relative lack of support to Ukraine? "When I was in Kyiv, everyone was very polite. I had no sense that the Ukrainians disapproved of us," he says. "In a way it was worse. I had the distinct feeling we were becoming irrelevant." For Mr Heisbourg the equation is simple. Ukraine will talk to countries who it knows are likely to deliver the weapons it needs. France at the moment is not one of them. The French have a very flinty ego. They don't like to be dismissed. They like to be important. They lust for a seat as a player. Treat her like a 3rd-tier nation, and that might get her to up her game. Yes, France has long-standing interests in Russia ... but she, like many, seems to be missing her moment on history's stage. France has been and could be a strong and responsive ally ... but at this moment in time, cracks in her very real military capability are being brought in to focus, and larger cracks in her ability to understand place and time are even more pronounced. View the full article

Americas Rolls Royce won a $20 million delivery order for the procurement of four spare AE 2100D3 engines used on the KC-130J aircraft. All work will be performed in Indianapolis, Indiana and work is expected to be completed by March 2024. The KC-130J is a multi-role tanker aircraft designed and developed by Lockheed Martin to replace the KC-130F/R/T aircraft. Work will take place in Indiana. Expected completion will be by March 2024. The Navy awarded Raytheon a $16 million contract modification for sustainment material and support for the AN/SPY-6(V) family of radars. The solid state, fixed-face and rotating SPY-6 variants provide integrated air and missile defense capabilities. Work will take place ein California, Arizona, Massachusetts and Virginia. Expected completion will be by September 2023. Middle East & Africa Kuwait now has six Eurofighters in the country after Leonardo delivered another two aircraft to Ali Al-Salem Al-Sabah Air Base. This is the third batch of delivery and the Kuwait News Agency said in a statement that the Eurofighters in the country have accumulated 100 flight hours. The US State Department Approved a Foreign Military Sale of M1A2K tank operational and training ammunition and related equipment to Kuwait for an estimated cost of $250 million. The Pentagon said the Kuwaiti government had requested to buy the ammunition and related equipment, and the proposed sale would improve Kuwait’s ability to meet current and future regional threats. The equipment would provide Kuwait with the ability to deter and defend against land-based threats, and help protect border regions and key land-based infrastructure, the Pentagon said in a statement. Europe The US Senate approved $12 billion in new economic and military aid for Ukraine on Thursday as part of a stopgap extension of the federal budget into December. The measure, agreed by senators of both parties, includes $3 billion for arms, supplies, and salaries for Ukraine’s military, and authorizes President Joe Biden to direct the US Defense Department to take $3.7 billion worth of its own weapons and materiel and send them to Ukraine. Asia-Pacific Swedish defense firm Saab announced last week that it would set up a new production facility for the Carl-Gustaf M4 rifle in India. The initiative seeks to bolster arms production in the country and provide the necessary support to the Indian Army and other military customers worldwide. According to the company, the new facility will employ complex technologies and advanced manufacturing techniques for the state-of-the-art Carl-Gustaf system. Today’s Video WATCH: Carl-Gustaf M4 | The most feared weapons system to be made in India | WION Originals View the full article

Lessons - yep there are lessons. When you go to war - you step in to a dark room. You hopefully have prepared yourself with the best equipment, training, operational concepts possible. The wise commander steps in to that dark room knowing that he will not know what will happen when he enters. At first, he won't see what works and does not - but he looks for it. He adjusts, he modifies - he tries to find advantage. Remember the FbF the other day about the Australian Light Horse and the assault on Beersheba? The Germans then did not think that mounted infantry would fight as cavalry - though the Commonwealth leadership saw the need to improvise, adapt, and overcome. Victory came to the less myopic leader. Now the other side of the coin. You have cavalry. Always go back to one question: what is the mission. General de Witte, Belgian Army knew what to do. Fight with what you have. Fight for every hour - as those behind you need every one. Unlike WWII - not all of Belgium was taken by the Germans, and the plucky actions of the Belgian King and his people kept a tiny corner of Belgium free through the war. Their holding action along with the British Expeditionary Force and the spotty help of the French was essential in stopping the Germans from taking Paris. Without Generals like de Witte, we would live in a very different world. Important to remember - especially for Americans. In WWI, the Belgians lost 14,000 men in a population of 7.5 million. For the USA's population of ~307 million today (2010) - that equates to 573,066 dead. First posted November 2010.View the full article

Americas Argon ST won a $21 million delivery order under a previously awarded basic ordering agreement for the procurement of nine amplifier chassis for the support of operations of the MQ-4C Triton with the first deployment of IFC 4-configured unmanned aircraft system. Work will take place in Virginia. Expected completion will be by March 2025. Sikorsky won a $17.2 million order, which provides non-recurring engineering in support of incorporating a one-second or less Engine Fuel Firewall Shutoff Valve into the CH-53K aircraft. The CH-53K is the United States Marine Corps’ (USMC) heavy lift replacement for the CH-53E. The most powerful helicopter in the Department of Defense, the CH-53K is a new-build helicopter that will expand the fleet’s ability to move more material, more rapidly throughout the area of responsibility using proven and mature technologies. Work will take place in Connecticut, England and Maryland. Expected completion will be in April 2027. Middle East & Africa A US Air Force F-15 fighter shot down an Iranian Mojer-6 unmanned aircraft over Iraq on September 28. USCENTCOM said in a statement that the drone was heading towards American troops in Erbil. Europe The road runway in Jousta, Finland was reactivated for the first time in decades in order for the Finnish Air Force to practice landing and take-offs on the highway. The Nordic country, which is applying for NATO membership following neighbouring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has a dozen similar reserve runways designed for wartime use around the country. Jane’s reports, that the NATO enhanced Vigilance Activity (eVA) battlegroup in Slovakia was declared combat-ready following exercise ‘Strong Cohesion’ in Leš?, held from 20 to 22 September. A spokesperson said that the declaration was made after evaluation by an in-theatre readiness inspectionteam led by Czech Major General Petr Procházka, deputy commander of the Army of the Czech Republic’s operations command. Asia-Pacific The vice commander of the Philippine Air Force (PAF) Maj. Gen. Arthur Cordura told senators during a hearing that only five out of twelve FA-50PH fighters are operational. Cordura explained that two jets are undergoing routine maintenance while the rest are waiting for spare parts. Delivery of spares are delayed by the COVID pandemic. He added that 10 jets will be serviceable by the end of the year. Today’s Video WATCH: Here Comes the CH-53K King Stallion View the full article

By Norman Polmar (Editor’s note: This is the second in a series of blogs by Norman Polmar, author, analyst, and consultant in the naval, aviation, and intelligence fields. Follow the full series here.) Soon after I went to work for Navy Times in late 1959, the editor-in-chief, John Slinkman, came over to my desk and dropped a newspaper clipping. I picked it up; it was about nuclear-propelled submarines. “Call Rickover and see what he has to say about this,” said Slinkman. “Admiral Rickover?” I asked. “Do you know another?” he responded. A few minutes later I called the Department of Defense operator and asked for Admiral Rickover. A secretary answered, I told her who I was. A couple of minutes later a gruff voice asked, “What do you want, Polmar?” It was Admiral Rickover! (I later learned that if he was available he would usually speak to a calling journalist.) “Sir,” I began and babbled something about who I was and how my editor had told me to call and ask him about . . . . After a few seconds of silence, Rickover responded, “The Navy has [number] public affairs officers who have nothing better to do than sit on their fat asses and answer dumb questions like that.” A few more seconds of silence. . . . “Where did you go to school?” he asked. I responded that I was attending night school at American University. He asked what I was studying and a few more questions about school. The conversation ended abruptly. No goodbyes. Some time later Mr. Slinkman again asked me to call Rickover. I did. The conversation was similar—no answers, but lots of questions about school. There were a few more, similar calls (by me) over the next couple of years. One conversation—about school—lasted some 40 minutes. Then, one day, I was in the john, sitting quietly, and doing my own business. Suddenly, from outside of the stall door I heard a female voice ask, “Norman, are you in there?” It was Elke, one of our secretaries. Gulp! “Yes.” “Admiral Rickover is on the phone for you.” “Get his number, I’ll call him back in a couple of minutes,” I told her. “But it’s Admiral Rickover!” “I can’t come right now. Get his number.” This exchange was repeated, twice. Finally, she left. A few minutes later, finishing that business and the paper work, I returned to my desk and called Rickover. “Polmar—where did you get the material for your article on page [number] of this week’s Navy Times?” Panic! I drew a complete blank. After a second or two I recalled being told that one should never answer Rickover that you didn’t know something. “Your testimony last year before the Joint Committee on Atomic Energy.” Silence. Then, “What classes are you taking this semester?” This conversation was brief. I knew that every year Rickover testified before the Joint Committee, and those printed hearings ran to hundreds of pages. I was certain that the answer to his question was “somewhere” in those printed pages. During my four (great) years at Navy Times I spoke to Rickover several times. Our “relationship” ended when he learned that I was writing a biography of him. He threatened to sue me, my publisher, and, I think, my parents, and a few others, and tried to stop the book from being published. Admiral Rickover and I did meet, in July 1978, at the retirement ceremonies for my friend Admiral F.H. (Mike) Michaelis, then Chief of Naval Material, in the sail loft of the Washington Navy Yard. I was seated in the VIP section—an end seat in the second or third row. The admirals and Navy and DOD officials were seated in the first row. I noticed Admiral Rickover entering the loft. The retirement ceremonies had just started, and the “greeters” had left the door area. Rickover was in civilian clothes and wearing a Navy raincoat, without rank insignia. He looked around and began walking toward the “bleachers” (i.e., cheap seats!). At that moment the Navy clergyman was giving the invocation. I leapt up, walked quickly around behind the podium to the entrance area, grabbed his arm, and steered him to my seat. I then went and sat in the cheap seats. Rickover did not know who I was. The biography Rickover: Controversy and Genius (Doubleday, 1982), written in collaboration with my close friend Thomas B. Allen, has sold very well. Michael Douglas approached Tom and me and discussed making a movie (with his father, Kirk Douglas, playing Rickover); but Rickover learned of our discussions, contacted Douglas with threats of law suits, and that was the end of that project. The post Speaking to Admiral Rickover first appeared on Naval Historical Foundation. View the full article

By Norman Polmar Photo courtesy of U.S. Naval Institute (Editor’s note: This is the seventeenth in a series of blogs by Norman Polmar—author, analyst, and consultant specializing in the naval, aviation, and intelligence fields. Follow the full series here.) In July 1983 a friend asked my wife, Beverly, and me to attend a bar-b-q at his home. Among the few others at the gathering was a rather tall, interesting young man wearing sun-glasses. I was introduced to Tom Clancy and his wife. I knew immediately who he was. The year before he had an article published in the Naval Institute Proceedings —“The Floating Shell Game.” His article called for placing MX ballistic missiles on air-cushion vehicles moving across the open spaces of the mid-west during a crisis. I did not agree with his the proposal. Following the bar-b-q, I received a letter from Tom on insurance company lettered dated 26 July 1983. It began: “As you see, I really am an insurance agent. I am not, however, licensed in the state of Virginia, hence you are safe from my professional depredations. But not from my hobby.” Tom went on to explain that he had to make a living, hence he was an insurance agent. He wrote, “I am a frustrated would-be officer. I learned in college that even during Vietnam the military did not need overly myopic people. To compensate for this rejection I have for years purchased and read numerous books on military and naval affairs, including at least three of yours.” Then, after telling how selling insurance was “boring stuff,” Tom next related his plan for a trilogy of books that he was writing—the first was Patriot Games, although the first that he was actually writing he called Hunt for Red October—a Soviet strategic missile submarine whose captain was defecting and would hand his submarine over to the Americans. He based his defection story on the incident involving the Soviet destroyer Storozhevoy in 1975. Then, in his five-page, self-typed letter, Tom went on to tell me the proposed plot of Red October. My reaction: “Wow!” Subsequently, Tom would ask me questions about submarines and how the United States could “hide” a huge missile submarine from Soviet spy satellites. As is well known, the Naval institute published the book in 1984—its first work of fiction. It was an instant best-seller. A few months later Time magazine published the first major interview with Tom, a full page in the 4 March 1985, issue. Citing President Reagan’s question as he praised Hunt for Red October—“How in the world did he have all this knowledge?”—Time reported: “The answer is that Clancy, 37, studied the major unclassified books dealing with Soviet submarines, such as Combat Fleets of the World and Norman Polmar’s Guide to the Soviet Navy. Another important resource was the $9.95 war game Harpoon, devised as an instruction manual for Navy ROTC cadets, which comes with a 40-page rule book of strategy and tactics….” Unsaid was that retired submarine officer and analyst Ralph Chatham was a key source for Tom. Red October was dedicated: “For Ralph Chatham, a sub driver who spoke the truth, and for all the men who wear dolphins.” I also gave Tom some advice for Red October that he did not use: On 12 September 1984, Tom wrote to me asking for my comments on a letter that he planned to have in the book that was sent by the captain of the submarine Red October to his mentor, the head of the Soviet Navy’s main political administration. I carefully read the proposed faux letter and sent a few comments to him. Years later, I came across Tom’s 1984 letter in my files. I immediately raced up to my library to see if Tom had incorporated my suggestions. Gulp! The letter was not in the book! The text refers to the letter, but it was never provided for the reader. I reproduced the letter, with a commentary, in the Naval Institute Proceedings in April 2010—“The Missing Ramius Letter.” Tom and I kept in contact and periodically he called me with questions about Soviet weapons and tactics when writing his massive Red Storm Rising (published in 1986). Although Tom sold movie rights to that book as well as to Hunt for Red October, the second book was never made into a film. And, Tom was off and running. He produced or collaborated on dozens of books. A key participant in his efforts was John D. Gresham, a technical artist for General Dynamics, whom I had first met in 1985. A few years later he became Tom’s chief researcher and later coauthor. John and I became close friends, and periodically John came to me with questions for Tom’s projects. One day John called to say that Tom wanted us to come out to his home on the water in Calvert County, Maryland. The 80-acre estate was a former boy’s camp—Camp Kaufman. I visited Tom there on several occasions: Indeed, he made it clear that I always was welcome for lunch if I brought corned beef and Jewish rye bread. He provided the trimmings and drinks and deserts. John Gresham and I drove out to Tom’s home to discuss a proposal for a television series of spy stories. Tom would be the “star” of the series, introducing and closing each episode. We agreed that John would rough out the television scripts and I would write a monograph to accompany each of perhaps a dozen episodes. The byline on the monographs would read “Tom Clancy and Norman Polmar.” We drank some of Tom’s single malt scotch to seal the bargain. (It was an “exception” for me—I normally drink only red wine.) John and I got to work… the first episode would deal with intelligence and spies during the Cuban missile crisis (1962). Then came word that Tom’s new literary agent objected to the project and the deal was dead. Tom gave us permission to use the material that we had researched and we began writing a book about the crisis. Thus, in 2006, John and I published DEFCON 2: Standing on the Brink of Nuclear War During the Cuban Missile Crisis. Tom wrote the foreword for the book, which sold very well. Subsequently, the book was made into a two-hour television documentary for the Discovery Channel. The documentary was filmed in Moscow and Cuba as well as in the Washington, D.C. area. I accompanied the film crew to Cuba. We got Tom to do the film’s introduction and closing, his only appearance on the “big screen.” The film also did very well. Tom and I kept in contact… the periodic corned beef lunches at his home in Calvert County and, later, in his apartment at the Baltimore Harbor. And, we continued to have e-mail exchanges. When I was a member of the Secretary of the Navy’s Research Advisory Committee (NRAC), I chaired a panel established to determine future research and development requirements for the Navy and Marine Corps. I brought the panel members out to Tom’s home. As we sat in his dining room eating delicatessen, Tom waxed forth with interesting and perceptive views about the future. Tom was a very private person. But on occasion he would open a small window. At dinner in New London, Connecticut, in September 1986, with friend of mine, then-Lieutenant Karen DiRenzo, and me, Tom had a drink and then we three finished off a couple of bottles of wine. Tom began talking about personal matters related to his book and film contracts. Another time, in private, he mentioned some of the several institutions that benefited from his largess: Make-A-Wish Foundation, for children with serious diseases, and eye institute of the Johns Hopkins medical complex in his native Baltimore. Later he made major contributions for the cancer ward at Johns Hopkins. And, one time he told me about a conversation with General Colin Powell, uncle of his lovely wife, Alexandra, and his views of their pending marriage. (Tom and Powell were close following Tom and John’s interviews for one of their books.) But Tom was mostly a private man. Tom Clancy died on 1 October 2013, at age 66, from a massive heart attack. Earlier he had undergone bypass surgery. It was a tragic loss for many people, especially for his wife and his four children. He was a good man. And, he was a talented man. He has been missed for both characteristics. The post Norman’s Corner: Tom Clancy first appeared on Naval Historical Foundation. View the full article

With what looks like sabotage of the Nordstream 1 & 2 pipelines under the Baltic Sea bringing a momentary focus on critical infrastructure on the seabed, now is the perfect time point everyone to Pierre Morcos and Colin Wall's 2021 CSIS commentary, Invisible and Vital: Undersea Cables and Transatlantic Security. In the national security arena, when conflicts arise people will discuss Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC) and Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) - concepts military professionals concerned with keeping beans, bullets, lawyers, guns, and money flowing have focused on for all of human written history. In our age, where so much of what goes over GLOC and SLOC relies on the flow of information - voice and data - with few offline backups, is the security of those pathways just as important - the Information Lines of Communication (ILOC)? I've been guilty as most have with the fragility of satellite communications ... but is that where the real threat is to the lifeblood of the information age? ...undersea cables carry over 95 percent of international data. In comparison with satellites, subsea cables provide high capacity, cost-effective, and reliable connections that are critical for our daily lives. There are approximately more than 400 active cables worldwide covering 1.3 million kilometers (half a million miles). Forget obsessing about what additional bridging equipment we need in light of the lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War (actually, do keep obsessing about it because we are woefully short) - but instead invest some of your intellectual effort about the challenge of bridging a cut in a cable 1,000nm at sea and 3,000 meters under the water; The Euro-Atlantic ... carries traffic between the two biggest economic hubs with dozens of cables, the majority of which are between the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. Europe relies heavily on these cables as a majority of its data is stored in data centers located in the United States. ... he planning, production, deployment, and maintenance of subsea cables are almost entirely in the hands of the private sector. Currently, the four largest suppliers are Alcatel Submarine Networks (France), SubCom (United States), NEC (Japan), and newcomer Huawei Marine Networks (China)... ...In the financial sector alone, undersea cables carry some $10 trillion of financial transfers daily. There is more than just financial and economic exposure here; Submarine cables are also critical for transatlantic security as governments rely heavily on this infrastructure for their own communications. Diplomatic cables and military orders largely pass through these privately owned cables as military operated, and classified cables remain marginal. Undersea cable breaks between Egypt and Italy in 2008 led U.S. drone flights in Iraq to decrease sharply from hundreds to tens a day. ...in recent years, Russian attention to transatlantic undersea cables, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean, has increased commensurately with NATO’s perception of undersea cables’ importance and vulnerability. Moscow has two primary means by which it could directly threaten the cables: submarines and surface vessels that can deploy autonomous or manned submersibles. On top of physical vulnerability; More difficult and subtle than destroying the cables is tapping them to record, copy, and steal data, which would be later collected and analyzed for espionage. Well, 'nuff said on that. Ahem. This next bit should give you a flash of panic; Allied governments should also step up their efforts to protect this critical infrastructure from malicious activity. Once allies agree on a shared assessment of vulnerabilities, NATO defense planners could consider setting capability targets to encourage allies to develop appropriate assets, such as surveillance ships or autonomous undersea drones. The United Kingdom has already announced the acquisition of a vessel specifically designed to protect underwater infrastructure. It will be equipped with advanced sensors and underwater drones and is expected to come into service by 2024. In addition to monitoring capabilities, allies could also consider policies to bolster the global fleet of cable repair vessels, which as of now is both overstretched and informally organized. The Fiscal Year 2020 U.S. National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), for example, allocated a small stipend for a program to incorporate two privately owned vessels into a “fleet” the government can activate in a crisis. Adopt contingency planning in case of major breaks: The United States and its European allies and partners should also develop, in close coordination with the private sector, contingency planning to prepare for the consequences of intended or unintended significant cuts. A focus should be on scenarios where many cables are severed in a short time period, overwhelming the redundancy features that the private sector builds into account for more common, isolated failures. We are naked, and you should be afraid. Ask hard questions. Demand action. View the full article

Americas Lockheed Martin Aeronautics won an $115.4 million deal, which provides diminishing manufacturing sources parts for F-35 Lightning II program for the Air Force, Navy, Marine Corps, non-US Department of Defense participants, and Foreign Military Sales customers. Work will take place in Texas. Expected completion will be in September 2023. Just recently, the US Navy, in collaboration with Raytheon, carried out two StormBreaker smart weapon-guided test vehicle releases from an F-35B Lightning II at .9 Mach, bringing the F-35 one step closer to receiving a major weapons upgrade. Huntington-Ingalls Industries won a $23.6 million modification for the procurement of material and labor associated with contractor-furnished on board repair parts for the outfitting of CVN-79. Work will take place in Virginia. Expected completion will be by June 2024. John F. Kennedy (CVN 79) is the second aircraft carrier in the Ford Class. It is also the second aircraft carrier built by Newport News Shipbuilding named for JFK. Middle East & Africa Iraq will take delivery of two GM403 air defense radars from Thales this month, Iraqi Defense Minister Juma Inad Saadoun has disclosed. “The Ministry of Defense has received French-made GM403 radars, two out of four, while they will arrive successively in Iraq at the end of this month,” Saadoun was quoted as saying. The last radar will arrive in the first quarter of next year. Thales said in July that it will supply Iraq with four GM403 air defense radars under a contract that will include a command and operations center. Europe The Royal Navy’s Duke-class Type 23 frigate HMS Kent has completed weapon and naval combat tests after undergoing maintenance and upgrades. The assessment prepares the frigate to join future deployments and drills, such as the Joint Warrior military exercise in Scotland next month. The Lithuanian government has delivered a total of 50 M113 armored personnel carriers to Ukraine, Lithuanian Defense Minister Arvydas Anusauskas announced. In a September 26 press briefing, Anusauskas said Lithuania plans to continue providing military assistance to its war-stricken European neighbor, pending consultation with NATO allies. “Our armed forces are NATO’s armed forces and our capability is also important for our allies who are here,” the minister said. “This is why every time we consider a reduction of our capability … we have to discuss with our allies how we are going to compensate for this.” Asia-Pacific Australia has started the construction of its fifth Arafura-class offshore patrol vessel (OPV) intended to enhance the country’s maritime awareness. A keel laying ceremony was held at the Henderson Maritime Precinct in Western Australia, with representatives from shipbuilder Luerssen Australia in attendance. The event marked a “major milestone” in the design, development, and delivery of another OPV for the Royal Australian Navy, Deputy Secretary of National Naval Shipbuilding Tony Dalton said. Today’s Video WATCH: Building The Unsinkable | USS John F. Kennedy CVN 79 | Aircraft Carrier – Mega Machines ?10 View the full article

If there was any concern that Russia might turn Germany as winter sets in cold and expensive, you can put that concern to the side;European leaders said Tuesday they believed dual explosions that damaged pipelines built to carry Russian natural gas to Europe were deliberate, and some officials blamed the Kremlin, suggesting the blasts were intended as a threat to the continent. The damage did not have an immediate impact on Europe’s energy supplies. Russia cut off flows earlier this month, and European countries had scrambled to build up stockpiles and secure alternative energy sources before that.With both Nordstream 1 and 2 now offline due to - well - "things," Russian gas is no longer an option for Germany in the short term. Who did this, why, and what are the implications? Well - I don't want this to be Emma Ashford week - but her thread here is pretty good; Going to make a 🧵 on this, since it's easier than ten different responses: who damaged the Nordstream pipelines? The short answer is: we don't know, and we won't know for some time, unless the WH chooses to declassify info. But we can at least parse the possibilities: 1/x — Emma Ashford (@EmmaMAshford) September 28, 2022 What this means is high energy prices for Germany, significant headwinds for her manufacturing and export markets, and lowered living standards for the German people and others who ride in her wake. The German people will have to do those things smart people have been telling them to do for a couple of decades - nuclear, coal, LNG - things their political class thought was "old think" by people who were of a lower class than they. Arrogance, again, has a price. This should not be a shock. This is a perfect storm resulting from decisions of her political class who painted their nation in to a corner for the sake of Green fever dreams, WEF/ESG sourced corruption, and general arrogance of a leadership class more interested in their in-group positioning than serving the needs of their people. Will there be any accountability? I hope so. Maybe, maybe ... hopefully ostpolitik will be dead for another generation ... but it will be back. Money has its own gravity field. View the full article

Americas Boeing won a $191.8 million delivery order for the repair of multiple flight control surfaces used on the F/A-18E/F and E/A-18G aircrafts. The delivery order does not include an option period. Work will be performed in Jacksonville, Florida; various other locations within the continental US that cannot be determined at this time and St. Louis, Missouri, and work is expected to be completed by July 2025. Mood Inc. won a $8.6 million deal for the spare of the Planetary Blade Fol used on the V-22 aircraft. The V-22 Osprey is a joint-service, medium-lift, multimission tilt-rotor aircraft developed by Boeing and Bell Helicopters. Boeing is responsible for the fuselage, landing gear, avionics, electrical and hydraulic systems, performance and flying qualities. All work will be performed in Torrance, California, and is expected to be completed by March 2026. Naval Supply Systems Command Weapon Systems Support, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, is the contracting activity Middle East & Africa Boeing won a $16.4 million contract modification to Foreign Military Sales (Saudi Arabia and United Kingdom) for improved drive system-enhancement on the Apache attack helicopter, production line and for the Apache Longbow crew trainers. Work will take place in Arizona. Estimated completion date is August 30, 2024. Europe The Army is dispatching two High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems to Latvia for the country’s national combat readiness exercises, according to a statement from US Army Europe and Africa. Approximately a dozen personnel will be deployed with the rocket systems to the exercise, called Namejs 2022. US soldiers are practicing rapidly deploying long-range “precision fires capabilities in coordination with our allies and partners,” the statement said. British engineering firm Supacat says it has completed the integration of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) sensing technology into the country’s Fox armored vehicles. In a press release last week, the company revealed that the first batch of upgraded vehicles has already been delivered to the manufacturer, Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land (RBSL). Asia-Pacific The US government has agreed to let Taiwan buy the NASAMS air defense missile system, Up Media reports. The offer from the Americans were made during the annual Monterey Talks security meeting by both sides in Annapolis on June 20. According to the news report, the Taiwanese will be allowed to buy the latest variant of NASAMS which can fire the AIM-9X, AMRAAM, and AMRAAM-ER missiles. Today’s Video WATCH: This is America’s M142 HIMARS View the full article

As winter arrives in Eastern Europe and the Russo-Ukrainian war approaches the end of its first year, a very serious war will become even more serious. Both nations are increasingly fully invested in to seeing this to the end. Though on paper stronger, cracks in national resolve in Russia are showing much more than in Ukraine. Wars of choice for conquest – which is what Russia is engaged in – has a much different impact on a nation’s people than an existential war for national survival, which is the war Ukraine is in. As Russia’s problems in trying to achieve something that looks like victory manifests itself in to the Russian people’s waning support for the war, the rulers of Russia will increasingly find their legitimacy and hold on power under threat. They know this war should have been over months ago. They clearly did not know their enemy well. Desperate times can force desperate measures. If the present Russian leadership’s hold on power is seen as weak, what measures might they take to try to hold on to power by forcing a quick end to the war on favorable terms? Some are looking closer at the nuclear option that Russia has. I think they are looking too hard. A good example of this line of concern was in yesterday’s WaPo by Joseph Cirincione. NB: Before the pull quotes, a fair warning – Cirincione is selling a book titled, Nuclear Nightmares: Securing the World Before it is Too Late, so keep that in consideration; Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing his war. If the Ukrainians continue to liberate areas of their country from his invading army, would he actually use nuclear weapons as he has threatened? If so, how? And what would the U.S. response be? It is difficult to put percentages on risk. Nor does it really matter. Given the stakes, if the chances are 10 percent or 40 percent, the response would be the same: Minimize the possibility of nuclear use, and prepare responses in advance. This is when I remind everyone that "we" are horrible at predicting the next war early enough to prevent them. The track record is simply not very good. However, Cirincione has invested a lot of time and effort in looking at this - so we should give his ideas some consideration; The next quote reminded me of a little reminder a peer gave me back when I was a NATO staff weenie at the other end of the HQ p-way from him. As a JO, he was on the other side of the wire as an JO in the Warsaw Pact. "Americans may not follow their doctrine very well, but Russians do."Russian military writings describe in detail how, if Russia is losing a conflict, it could use nuclear weapons to force its enemy to retreat. This “escalate to de-escalate” or “escalate to win” strategy is somewhat controversial, but it is not dissimilar to various U.S. plans for using nuclear weapons first.Well, sometimes we follow our doctrine. Sometimes the Russians don't...but if you are playing odds... I still stand by my belief - and that is a weak thread, I know - that in the next war, nuclear weapons will be what chemical weapons were during WWII. Everyone had them; no one used them. If nuclear weapons were to appear on the Ukrainian stage, Cirincione does not have this COA as his most likely ... but it is my most likely of one must choose from the "Nuke" basket; Demonstration shot. One option is for Russia to fire a nuclear weapon over an uninhabited area — say, part of the Black Sea — as a demonstration of its seriousness in hopes that the West will back down. Some scientists involved in the Manhattan Project urged just such a demonstration shot as an alternative to bombing Japanese cities at the end of World War II. While no one would be killed and there would not be physical damage, the explosion would stop the world in its tracks. There has not been a nuclear weapon used in combat in 77 years. No one has even seen a nuclear explosion above ground since 1980. This is their neighborhood and fallout will drift to their lands if nukes are used. Is anyone going to buy grain downwind? No. Next to underground explosions, explosions high over the water or in the atmosphere create the least secondary radiation effects. Don't underestimate the lingering memory of Chernobyl. I see "Demonstration Shot" of the most likely COA of the least likely Nuke COAs. As shocking as this would be, Russia would likely reject this option for the same reason U.S. military leaders did in 1945: It is not shocking enough. Don't agree. Russia believes their own FITREPs, so to speak. The arrogance of their initial OPLAN speaks to this. They hold most of Central and especially Western Europe in contempt. I am sure a nuke over the Black Sea would be shocking enough (and they're right). This is the author's "Most Likely COA:" Low-yield weapon. Russia could fire a “low-yield” nuclear weapon on a Ukrainian military target. The explosion would kill hundreds or thousands and cause significant damage. Russia could use one of the 10-kiloton warheads it deploys on some of its ground-launched cruise missiles, including the Iskander that has been used extensively in the war with conventional warheads. Although this would be a massive explosion — equal to 10,000 tons of TNT — it would be small by nuclear standards. The bomb that destroyed Hiroshima was 15 kilotons; most U.S. and Russian nuclear warheads range from 100 to 1,000 kilotons. Some believe that Russia has even smaller-yield warheads, in the one-kiloton range.I'm sorry, a nuke is a nuke. Any use, however slight, breaks the seal. As mentioned earlier, why go right away with something that will blow fallout your direction and ruin a major cash crop for who knows how many years? No one would want hot-wheat. You'd win nothing but a poisoned challis. Once this seal is broken, beyond that line be dragons. I would see a hard split between Western and Central European NATO on a response. Lots of marches with large paper mache puppets, etc. I don't think the author is correct at all in his assumptions. ... it would not require a “response in kind” by the United States, though some would urge that. The likely response, in addition to those in scenario one, would be massive increases in military aid to Ukraine and possibly concerted NATO or U.S. strikes on the Russian units that launched the attack.As per the split in NATO, there will be no NATO strikes anywhere after such a use. I do not see the USA using nukes either when two European NATO members, France and the UK, have nukes of their own. NATO will not do it, and especially the Biden Administration won't go alone in such a step unilaterally. In his next two COAs, he treats them as individual events, I don't. Once "Low Yield" goes, unless there is an immediate capitulation to Russian actions, the next two steps will follow rather quickly. This isn't a ladder, this is a chute. Large-yield weapon. Putin could dial up the explosive force of the attack to the 50- or 100-kiloton range, or about three to six times the Hiroshima bomb. Tens of thousands would die with massive damage and radiation plumes. If the target were Kyiv, it would decapitate Ukraine’s leadership. This would almost certainly trigger a direct U.S. or NATO response, though not likely nuclear. The United States and NATO have sufficient precise, powerful conventional weapons that they could use to devastate Russian forces in Ukraine and command headquarters, including those units responsible for the attack. This would likely be accompanied by large-scale cyber operations. Nuclear attack on NATO. This is the least likely scenario. Russian first-use doctrine includes the option of striking NATO targets. The attack could be by long-range missiles or air-launched cruise missiles on Central European states. If the yield of the weapon was similar to the previous scenario, it would inflict a level of destruction on a NATO state not seen since World War II. This could trigger a nuclear response. Some would argue a limited nuclear counterstrike was necessary to preserve nuclear deterrence. More likely is an all-out conventional assault to try to eliminate either Putin himself or the weapons he commands before he strikes again. There is a certain arrogance in thinking that you can control the nuclear genie once it is out of the bottle. I am firmly of the school that you can't ... unless one side buckles. That is why one must be firm. The weaker you are, the more attractive the chute of nuclear use seems. There is also a Rumsfeldian Known-Known in play here; the US President Joe Biden. He has a history going back decades. As former SECDEF Gates noted, he has a tendency to pick the wrong action on the international stage. He also shows a desire to - at whatever cost to foreign nationals - get the USA out of foreign entanglements involving our forces. Should the Russians in desperation pull the nuclear card, would the USA do nothing and let the Russians get her way? What precedent does that set? Does anyone think that will stop the Russians from pulling this card again? Does anyone really think there is a way to control nuclear escalation, that the same people who on the USA side who never saw Kabul collapsing like it did or on the Russians side who didn't see Kyiv standing like it did - that these two groups - have the insight and nuance to steer around and control each step in the "nuclear escalation ladder?" If the Russians do an airburst high over the Black Sea, would NATO/USA do a similar airburst over the Arctic? I don't know. No one does. Do you think the Biden natsec team has run this game yet and has a pre-planned response approved and ready to go? I don't. Even with the best of teams on both sides, these are the "B" and "C" teams, not the "A" teams. Neither side has that record. There is no ladder to escalate on, to pause on each step and ponder. No, once the seal is broken, we have a steep and well greased chute. Pray for cooler heads, humility, and well secured genies. View the full article

Americas Rockwell Collins won a $15.6 million modification, which adds additional in-scope work to provide a virtual reality trade study, aircraft common equipment replacement/virtualization, aircraft flight management computer functional equivalent unit card development, and Beyond Line Of Sight (BLOS) chat software enhancements in support of the E-2D Hawkeye Integrated Training System devices, as well as provides associated technical data, computer software, and computer software documentation for BLOS chat software enhancement efforts. Additionally this modification exercises an option to procure coupled mode capability in support of E-2D Aircrew Procedures Trainer Device 2F211 S/N 4 and E-2D Distributed Readiness Trainer. Work will take place in Virginia and Florida. Estimated completion will be in February 2024. The US Marine Corps has contracted Stratom to develop an uncrewed ground vehicle that integrates a range of capabilities in one platform. The Remote Expeditionary Autonomous Pioneer (REAPr) System is expected to possess “material handling, construction, path/trail clearance, explosive hazard defeat and refueling” capabilities, according to the Small Business Innovation Research solicitation. Middle East & Africa Iran unveiled a new medium-range ballistic missile on Thursday during a military parade commemorating the Iran-Iraq war, state television said. “The liquid-fuelled Rezvan ballistic missile has an operational range of 1,400 kilometers (870 miles),” said the station, which aired images of the missile mounted on a military vehicle. Europe Rheinmetall BAE Systems Land (RBSL) has contracted Elbit Systems UK to provide 150 Elbit Laser Warning Systems (ELAWS) for the Challenger 3 (CR3) Program. The ELAWS provides 360-degree coverage with a precise and timely warning against laser-guided threats such as missiles. Asia-Pacific Singapore plans to build a new building at Ebbing Air National Guard Base to house an F-35 simulator, the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) has disclosed. This confirms that the island intends to bring its F-35s to the Ebbing ANG base to join its F-16 fleet. The EIS also noted that F-35Bs would not operate in STOVL mode due to noise concerns. Singapore has bought four F-35Bs with options for eight. According to Jane’s, the Indian Army has selected Larsen & Toubro (L&T) to co-develop the country’s first light tank project along with the Defence Research and Development Organisation. The army selected the Mumbai-headquartered multinational to develop a 25-ton tank for mountain warfare under project Zorawar, L&T’s senior executive vice-president for defense Jayant D Patil told the outlet. Today’s Video WATCH: British Army’s Next Generation Challenger 3 Tank Is Now Under Construction View the full article

Before diving into today’s post, as we have reached a lot of new readers in the last year, I would beg the indulgence of long-term members of The Front Porch to allow me to review some long-standing positions of mine. On the foreign policy front, especially for the last decade, I have liked to consider myself a realist. I do not expect perfection in my personal friends, nor expect perfection in my nation’s friends. I am not an isolationist by any stretch, but I do find myself much closer to John Quincy Adams’s; …admonition that “Americans should not go abroad to slay dragons they do not understand in the name of democracy.” …than I am to that mindset that brought us to that now clearly disastrous invasion of Iraq in 2003 etc. For firm realists, I am probably seen as a bit wobbly, but that’s OK as it is fair. I am, for a lack of a better description, a situational realist. For even longer than the 18 years I have put my thoughts down here, I continue to advocate for a complete restructuring of our imperial presence around the world, especially when it comes to our ground forces. All of our friends and allies can more that support significant ground forces to defend their lands. We are a maritime and aerospace power on the other side of the world. We can maintain combined logistics and training facilities with them, and even rotate forces in and out when desired, but we should not be garrisoning their nations with tens of thousands of ground forces as we approach the middle of the 21st Century. I’m not dogmatic on the topic. I am open to the argument for some forces in South Korea – very few – because integration timelines are so short for that still unresolved war. Other locations, even in Europe, I am much more skeptical about. Even with recent Russian aggression, our allies in Europe should, if we can break their addiction to Uncle Sam’s umbrella, more than handle that threat until, if needed, we need to bring forces across the Atlantic. I also depart realist dogma when it comes to Ukraine. As the record shows, I have been a regular supporter of helping Ukraine defend herself over the last decade. Russia is, and remains, a bully with an imperial mindset. She started this war, and it is in our interest that she is defeated as her present leadership clearly stated that this was the first of many wars of conquest. Best to stop the Russian neo-imperial effort with Ukrainians on the Dnieper than with Americans on the Oder. America has a long record of helping those trying to secure self-determination. An imperfect record, but in line with our nation’s founding. We are not, however, to force our beliefs on others. Set and example for others to follow if they so wish, but not force. That’s the outline, and with that, today I’d like to point you to an article by someone who I disagree with now and then – which is normal and healthy. You must read widely, and not just the people who think just like you. You need to challenge your ideas with well meaning people of good intention that see solutions to problems differently than you do in whole or in part. No one has a perfect picture, but some are mostly right and others history shows are mostly wrong regardless of their pedigree or alignment with the constellation of your priors. You may dismiss their ideas for lacking merit, find some challenges in them that refines and improves your own, or you might even be provided some insight which leads you to change your own. Normal and healthy. I’m not aligned with her fully here, but if you want to hear – and you should – what a principled realist argument is, our friend Emma Ashford has a read worth your time over at Foreign Affairs. It is actually a review of the recent books, Matthew Specter’s The Atlantic Realists and Jonathan Kirshner’s An Unwritten Future, but in practice it is much more. First, let's allow Emma to define "realism" in this context; What today is called “realism”—the school of thought most undergraduates are taught in their International Relations 101 class—is in fact structural realism or neorealism, a version of realism outlined in the 1970s by the scholar Kenneth Waltz. Neorealism is further divided into “defensive” and “offensive” variants, depending on whether one believes that states primarily seek security through defensive means, such as military fortifications and technology, or through an expansion that acquires power and territory. Both versions focus heavily on structural factors (the ways that states interact at the global level) and effectively ignore domestic politics, the quirks of bureaucratic decision-making, the psychology of leaders, global norms, and international institutions. Neorealism thus stands in stark contrast to the older school of classical realism, which counts Thucydides, Machiavelli, and Bismarck among its earliest practitioners, has strong roots in philosophy, and includes factors such as domestic politics and the role of human nature, prestige, and honor. It also contrasts with classical realism’s more modern counterpart, “neoclassical realism” (a term coined by Gideon Rose, a former editor of this magazine), which seeks to marry the two variants by reincorporating domestic and ideational factors into structural theories. Now let's dive in to a few pull quotes that hopefully lead you to read the whole thing. None of these notions are pleasant or popular. The realist Robert Gilpin once titled an article “No One Loves a Political Realist.” All too often, pointing out the harsh realities of international life or noting that states often act in barbaric ways is seen as an endorsement of selfish behavior rather than a simple diagnosis. As one of the school’s founding fathers, Hans Morgenthau, put it, realists may see themselves as simply refusing to “identify the moral aspirations of a particular nation with the moral laws that govern the universe.” But their critics often accuse them of having no morals at all, as the debate over Ukraine has shown. That is something I find attractive about the realist argument. It accepts the reality of fallen man, our own limitations, and the need for the attenuation of emotion. At its core is humility - a rare but valuable commodity in our age. Ukraine has long been a flash point for realist thought. Many realists argue that in the post–Cold War period, the United States has been too focused on an idealistic conception of European politics and too blasé about classic geopolitical concerns, such as the enduring meaning of borders and the military balance between Russia and its rivals. Policymakers who subscribed to liberal internationalism—the idea that trade, international institutions, or liberal norms can help build a world where power politics matter less—typically presented NATO’s expansion as a matter of democratic choice for smaller central and eastern European states. Realists, in contrast, argued that it would present a legitimate security concern for Moscow; no matter how benevolent NATO might seem from the West’s perspective, they would argue, no state would be happy with an opposing military alliance moving even closer to its borders. This argument aligns closely with one of my critiques that is mostly OBE but should be understood; our Ukraine policy was in no small measure run by people who could not see the situation from the Russian perspective. They were Russian experts who had a spreadsheet understanding of Russia, but not a cultural or historical perspective. That ignorance was fortified with an unalloyed belief in their own expertise. They/we were like a stumbling child - meaning no harm but unable to not damage things they/we don't understand. Yet even if realism is largely present in today’s policy debates as a foil, pushing U.S. foreign policymakers to justify their choices and perhaps adopt slightly more pragmatic options, that may be the best that realists can hope for. As Specter points out, realists have had a complicated relationship with policymaking. Kennan, who served as the U.S. State Department’s director of policy planning, and Morgenthau, who worked under him, are among the best-known realist policymakers, and their influence has waxed and waned over time. The most realist administrations—those of Presidents Richard Nixon and George H. W. Bush—had some notable policy triumphs: ending the Vietnam War, managing the peaceful breakup of the Soviet Union, winning the Gulf War. But they also had mixed legacies, from Nixon’s troubled domestic political record to Bush’s 1992 electoral loss. That is still more than one can say for realist influence in the Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama administrations, when unchallenged U.S. power allowed idealists to drive most policy. Yet as the world continues its shift toward multipolarity, realist insights will once again become more important for the conduct of U.S. foreign policy. Perhaps realism at mid-century will have a better seat at the table. Perhaps. Again, I encourage you to read it all, but in your busy life if you can't, I will leave you as Emma leaves her review. This is the core, and apologies to Hillel, all else is commentary; Realists accept that foreign policy is often a choice between the lesser of evils. Pretending otherwise—pretending that moral principles or values can override all constraints of power and interest—is not political realism. It is political fantasy. Photo credit ELACLARRISASIMAMORA. View the full article

In September of last year, the national security story was the announcement of AUKUS - trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Though the Russo-Ukrainian War quickly took it from headlines, it is still moving forward - and in ways you may not expect. These three Anglosphere nations have a long cultural, diplomatic, economic, and military history together - so many of the building blocks are already there to make something impressive. Using his recent article in the Australian Strategic Policy Institute as a starting off point, our guest for the full hour returning to Midrats this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern will be Dr. Alessio Patalano. Alessio is Professor of War & Strategy in East Asia and Director of the King’s Japan Programme at the Centre for Grand Strategy at the Department of War Studies (DWS), King’s College London (KCL). Prof Patalano is a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society (FRHistS), Adjunct Fellow at the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies, Temple University Japan, a Visiting Professor at the Japan Maritime Command and Staff College (JMCSC) and a Senior Fellow at the highly influential think tanks Policy Exchange and the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). In 2022, he also became fellow at the Royal Navy Centre for Strategic Studies, and Sir Herbert Richmond Fellow in Maritime Strategy at the Council on Geostrategy. Join us live if you can, but it not, you can get the show later by subscribing to the podcast. If you use iTunes, you can add Midrats to your podcast list simply by clicking the iTunes button at the main showpage - or you can just click here. You can find us on almost all your most popular podcast aggregators as well.View the full article

So, who is great in the pantheon of retired Navy Commanders? Well, we lost one, if not the, ranking member last month - Commander Dean S. “Diz” Laird, USN (Ret.). Another legend next door. Over the course of his 29-year legendary military career, he shot down the first German planes of World War II off the coast of Norway for the Navy and was the only Navy Flying Ace who scored victories against German and Japanese planes in both the European and Pacific Theatres. Diz flew 99 different military aircraft before retirement and then flew his 100th at the age of 95, flying a T-34C in Coronado in July 2016. He flew 175 combat missions and served on 12 aircraft carriers, was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross in 1945, won the National Air Races in 1949 (setting a world speed record at the time), and holds the U.S. military record for most straight deck carrier landings. Additionally, Diz was part of the Navy’s first Jet Squadron, becoming the first pilot to land a jet on the deck of the USS Midway. In 1969, he flew as the lead stunt pilot and helped choreograph the reenactment of the attack on Pearl Harbor for 20th Century Fox’s 1970 film “Tora! Tora! Tora!” While still in the Navy, Diz moved to Coronado in 1958 with his wife and three children. He stayed active in the community as all his children attended Coronado schools. He cherished the idyllic Coronado way of life to raise his children and thoroughly embraced the island’s close-knit community with his kind-hearted spirit, generous personality, and innate ability to make friends easily. Upon retiring from the Navy in 1971 at the rank of Commander, he became a partner and co-owner of the Coronado Municipal Golf Course restaurant. Diz operated and managed the concession for nearly 20 years, making lifelong friends and playing countless rounds of golf — which included six career holes-in-one at the Coronado Golf Course — a true Ace’s ace! With Lorraine, always at his side, Diz traveled extensively in his retirement years, often times meeting with pilots who were former World War II adversaries. He was inducted into San Diego’s Air & Space Museum International Hall of Fame in 2014 and honored on the Coronado Avenue of Heroes in 2015. Diz was also a member of the American Fighter Aces and Tailhook Associations (original member and organizer of the first several annual Tailhook events). He lived life to the absolute fullest and never let his age slow him down, accomplishing several noteworthy feats after age 90: he went skydiving on his 90th birthday, received the Congressional Gold Medal in 2015 and the Audie Murphy Award in 2018, and threw out the first pitch for the Oakland A’s in 2019. Coronado was Diz’s primary home until 2015, when he moved to Walnut Creek, CA to be closer to his daughter and grandchildren. He was predeceased by Lorraine in 2014 and his oldest daughter Diane in 2008. He is survived by his son Michael (Clare), daughter Andrea (Scott), eight grandchildren, and 13 great-grandchildren. We will always love our Commander Laird, Diz, Dean, Dad, Grandpadean, BePa, and Great Grandpadean. He will be sorely missed, and we will always carry his spirit with us with the fondest of memories. h/t MR. View the full article

Don't think this is just a problem with the US Air Force Academy. No, all our services academies are worm-ridden with the worst ideas infesting academia from the "diversity" cult. You need to read the full thing, but to give you a taste of what is going on, I do have three slides for you to review; So, in the USAF you are a bad person if you are "colorblind" or state "I don't see color." Even worse, you are not allowed to think that "we're all just people." To draw that out, it appears that the USAF wants everyone to judge people by the color of their skin first of all. If that isn't racist and retrograde, I'm not sure what is. Callsigns and nicknames are bad too, it appears. Oh, no boyfriends or girlfriends. Lawdy. It gets worse. As always, if you have to tell someone you are important, or threaten them to say you are important, you actually are not important - just a hazard. Also I will note, they are referencing the "diverse teams outperform" that has been debunked countless times by actual scientific studies...and reminded to everyone during the FY 2023 NDAA markup by Congressman Gallagher (R-WI). Not only is this political, it is starting to gain the appearances of cultish religions. You have a cadre of zampolits/inquisitors who run around looking for heretics to destroy, they have "Reading Rooms," "Red Guard" apparatchiks embedded with eyes and ears everywhere, and of course, promote "Affinity Groups" who exist only to promote sectarian division. Don't forget, the commissariat that the US military, academic institutions, and other governmental organizations do not come cheap, and they only grow. They don't exist to solve any problems, but to instead expand them. That is the way to job security and more contracts. Next week's DivThu will give you an example of that price tag. Until then, please try to remember that no one has a "mom" or a "dad." Welcome to Year-0. Good news, there are people about to access levers of power who appear to have had about enough of this grevience-driven rent seeking;Waltz (R-FL), a ranking member of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness, told Fox News Digital that the program’s structure is particularly concerning because it appears to create a "separate, parallel chain of command." "To those of us who are a little bit older, it reminds us of what the Soviets used to do or what the Chinese do today, where they literally have political commissars inserted at every level end of the chain of command, but they have a separate reporting chain to ensure that the military is abiding by their ideology and their political doctrine," Waltz said. "Not only do they have diversity and equity officers in the cadet chain of command, they wear a special insignia, which is exactly what the political commissars — they would wear an armband in both the Soviet army and now in the Chinese Communist military. I just think there are some really alarming parallels," he said. "When we are in the majority, we are going to legislate this, and we are going to cut it out of the U.S. military," he added. An Air Force Academy spokesperson said in a statement to Fox News Digital that the D&I training is to help prepare cadets for "warfighting effectiveness."There is a time and a season for everything. Winter is coming...or spring. View the full article

Americas The US Navy awarded Raytheon a $160 million deal for Dual Band Radar (DBR) design agent and technical engineering efforts. Engineering efforts and supplies are required to support the DBR systems installed aboard CVN-78 and DDG-1000 class ships. Work will take place in Massachusetts, California, Rhode Island and Virginia. Estimated completion will be by September 2023. The US Army’s Program Executive Office Missiles and Space has issued a Request For Information (RFI) for the Close Combat Missile System-Heavy (CCMS-H). The CCMS-H is to replace the existing BGM-71 TOW anti-tank missile. The new missile must be able to destroy Tier 1 armored threats and field fortifications. It must have dual command guidance such as Fire and Forget, Command-Line of Sight, or Semi-Active Laser homing while incorporating reprogrammable target prioritization capability. The Army intends to store the CCMS-H for up to ten years and the missile must be ready to be fired at any time. Middle East & Africa The Israeli Navy has successfully test-fired a Gabriel 5 anti-ship missile from INS Oz. The Israeli Defense Ministry says the test was carried out in August. Israel Aerospace Industries manufactures the Gabriel family of advanced sea-skimming missiles. Raytheon won a $15.3 million order, which provides for depot-level repair capability for the government of Kuwait’s inventory of AN/APG-79 Active Electronically Scanned Array radar weapon replaceable assemblies. Work will be performed in El Segundo, California and Forest, Mississippi and is expected to be completed in February 2023. Europe Defense News reports that the Italian Air Force and Navy have figured out how to manage their small fleets of F-35Bs, and it goes something like “Joint training and operations, but separate bases.” With both services due to receive just 15 F-35B’s each, the need for pooled management has been obvious to officials, despite rivalries between the military branches. Asia-Pacific Japan has officially acknowledged that three Eurofighters from the German Air Force will be arriving at Hyakuri Air Base on September 28. The Germans will participate in joint training with F-2 fighter pilots from the Japan Air Self-Defense Force. The ASDF says the goal is to promote mutual understanding, strengthen defense cooperation and improve the ASDF’s tactical skills. Today’s Video WATCH: The World’s Most Powerful Ship – USS Zumwalt Documentary View the full article

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Americas The US Air Force announced that Northrop Grumman would roll out the B-21 bomber in the first week of December at its production facilities in Palmdale, California. “We last introduced a new bomber over 30 years ago. As we look to the threats posed by our pacing challenge; we must continue to rapidly modernize. The B-21 Raider will provide formidable combat capability across a range of operations in highly contested environments of the future,” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. CQ Brown, Jr said. Textron won a $7.7 million modification to remove work, incorporate additional work and exercise an option to a previously awarded contract FA8617-22-C-6238 for Building Partner Capacity T-6C Program – Tranche 1. This descope and add work contract modification provides for the configuration change of the T-6C aircraft being produced under the basic contract. This modification also provides for the exercise of an option for an additional quantity of six personal life support equipment being produced under the basic contract via option exercise. Work will be performed in Wichita, Kansas, and is expected to be complete by September 30, 2024. Middle East & Africa Noble Supply and Logistics won a $500 million modification exercising the first one-year option period of a three-year base contract with two one-year option periods under solicitation SPE8E3-18-R-0010 for facilities maintenance, repair and operations support in the Central Command Area of Responsibility. This is a firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract. Locations of performance are Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, with an October 1, 2023, ordering period end date. Estimated completion date is October 1, 2023. Sikorsky won a $32.8 million modification to exercise an option for two UH-60M aircraft for Foreign Military Sales. UH-60 Black Hawk is a multi-mission helicopter developed by Sikorsky that has been operational in the US Army since 1978. The export version of the UH-60 Black Hawk is designated as S-70A. Work will take place in Connecticut. Estimated completion date is June 30, 2027. Fiscal 2010 Foreign Military Sales (Jordan) funds in the full amount were obligated at the time of the award. Europe Defense News reports that the British government has ordered an update of its defense and security review published last year and hopes to complete a revised plan by the end of 2022, Prime Minister Liz Truss has announced. Touted as the biggest defense review since the Cold War when it was unveiled in March 2021, Britain’s update of strategic aims and capabilities has been overtaken by events following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Asia-Pacific Australia’s first MQ-4C Triton high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) unmanned aircraft destined for the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) was unveiled on September 14 by Northrop Grumman at Palmdale California. The Triton’s will be particularly useful in protecting Australia’s northern maritime regions. Northrop Grumman began build in October 2020 with the fuselage and one-piece wing coupled together in December 2021. Today’s Video WATCH: T-6 TEXAN II–An Up Close Look at the Air Force’s Primary Trainer View the full article

So, what did you wake up to? President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday ordered Russia's first mobilisation since World War Two and backed a plan to annex swathes of Ukraine, warning the West he was not bluffing when he said he'd be ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia. In the biggest escalation of the Ukraine war since Moscow's Feb. 24 invasion, Putin explicitly raised the spectre of a nuclear conflict, approved a plan to annex a chunk of Ukraine the size of Hungary, and called up 300,000 reservists.This should not be a shock to anyone. If it is, perhaps you should consider investing your time in cat-blogging. It should bring to the front that NATO can no longer allow unserious nations to play like they are anything but security free riders. They need to contribute their fair share or pay some consequence. Alliances have benefits and responsibilities. You should not have one without the other. While percentage of GDP is an imperfect measure of contribution, it is better than all the other ones. It is as simple benchmark of national effort. As these are the best numbers we have, let's look at 2021 and then forward. It is amazing that after all Russia has shown Western Europe - both of its nature and the nature of modern warfare - that so many of our NATO allies continue to slow walk defense spending, doing the very minimum to be a full and fair partner in the alliance. Russian victory - however they define it - or Russian defeat - however Ukraine defines it - will not change the geography or nature of Russia. She is not going anywhere. This article back a couple of months ago is a nice summary of who is who in the alliance. Some nations get it more than others: Ever since NATO defence ministers agreed to spend a 2% GDP quota on their military budgets annually, it’s been a stick with which the big spenders can beat their frugal partners. … When NATO members again agreed to meet the 2% of GDP target at the summit in 2014, only the UK and Greece were keeping up the European side of the bargain. ... Across much of Central and Eastern Europe, politicians are now racing to make sure they meet the percentage target by at least next year. ... Poland’s parliament passed the Homeland Defence Act in March that will increase defence spending to three per cent of GDP, which would make Warsaw the second-biggest European spender in NATO, after Greece. Of course the Poles get it. Others - especially the former Soviet and Warsaw Pact nations - get it too. Others with rare exception are playing catch-up to where before the Russo-Ukrainian War only Poland and the UK were 2%+. According to NATO forecasts published last month, seven European members of NATO will hit the target this year — Croatia, Estonia, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and the UK. Romania and France will be off by less than 0.1%. All but Greece and the UK are from the former “Eastern bloc”....Just this month the governments of Slovakia, Slovenia and Latvia said they intended to reach the spending mark by at least 2023, if not this year. Romania has increased defence spending by 14% for 2022 and says it could meet the 2% target next year. … Finland, which recently agreed to join NATO, spent around 1.5% of GDP on defence in 2020. But its government announced an injection of €2 billion following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which could bring it above the 2% mark in 2022 or 2023.Who should be on everyone's naughty list?Sweden, which also recently agreed to join NATO, has vowed to reach the 2% mark by 2028. Now-former Prime Minister Mario Draghi said in April that Italy would meet the target the same year. Spain’s government says by 2029. Denmark thinks by 2033. Last week, Belgium’s parliament agreed to spend an additional €10 billion by 2030, taking it up to around 1.5% of GDP. Alexander De Croo, the prime minister, reckons the 2% mark will be reached by 2035....Germany has recently come under criticism after new financial plans released this month appear to indicate that defence spending will only be around 1.5% of GDP this year and 1.7% in 2023. Only by 2026 will it fulfil its 2% pledge, according to some media reports.There is so much deferred spending from our free-riding European allies. Between 1999 and 2021, EU combined defence spending increased by 20%, according to reports by the European Defence Agency. That compares with a 66% increase by the US, and 292% by Russia and 592% by China, over the same period."Out years" are where dragons live, so anyone not on guide-slope to 2%+ by the end of 2023 - when one way or another the Russo-Ukrainian War should be over - will find someway to not get there in a wave of excuses and bluffing. We should call their bluff. As such, and this is generous, we need to finally pursue PLAN SALAMANDER for NATO "Flags-to-Post" that I first proposed almost six years ago.In NATO, General and Flag Officer billets are distributed amongst nations in a rather complicated way, but this formula is controlled by NATO – and as such – can be changed. Entering argument: take the present formula for “fair distribution” and multiply by .75 any nation that spends 1.5% to 1.99% GDP on defense. Multiply by .5 any nation that spends between 1.25% to 1.499%. Multiply by .25 1.0% to 1.240%. If you fall below 1%, you get nothing and your OF5 (Col./Capt) billets are halved. 1.25x for 2.01%-2.25%. 1.5X for 2.26%-2.75%; 1.75x for 2.76% -3.0%. 2x for +3.01%.The math gets funky when a lot of people get over 2%, but we can refine it later. Doesn't cost a penny and will unquestionably get the attention of those nations. Trust me on this. By January 1st, 2024 no more excuses. A small and symbolic punishment, but a good start that may be all that is needed. This is not the second half of the 20th Century any more. 2% is something that the Russo-Ukrainian War should show as an artifact for a different world. Smart people know this. But General Jens Stoltenberg, the NATO secretary general, said at a summit last month that he reckons 19 partners will exceed the target by 2024. “Two per cent is increasingly considered a floor, not a ceiling,” he added. Europeans should be the primary drivers of having everyone spend more. As I have been warning since before the turn of the century - the USA is one election or significant political/civil/economic/natural disaster away from shrugging carrying the load for European security. They need to be ready to stand on their own. If they think Americans love their freedom more than they do - they are wrong. If they think a Russian defeat and Putin in the history books will keep their eastern front quiet - they are wrong. View the full article

Americas General Dynamics won a $414.8 million contract modification with one four-year option period for multiple items used in the Abrams Main Battle Tank, Stryker Family of Vehicles, Light Armored Vehicle Family of Vehicles, Cougar, Buffalo and RG-31. This is a firm-fixed-price, indefinite-delivery/definite-quantity contract. Estimated completion date is September 28, 2029. Boeing won a $51.7 million contract to procure the final 51 Advanced Capabilities Mission Computers retrofit kits (49 kits for EA-18G aircraft and two kits for software integration labs) in support of meeting the Navy’s mission requirements for the EA-18G aircraft. Work will take place in Minnesota, Missouri and Maryland. Estimated completion will be in September 2025. Middle East & Africa The Israeli navy held Leonardo’s 76/62 Super Rapid Multi Feeding naval gun acceptance ceremony on board the Israeli Navy’s ship Oz/Magen Sa’ar 6 class, at the naval base of Haifa last week. The 76/62 SR MF will deploy the corvettes’ air, anti-surface and anti-missile defense capabilities. The Israeli Navy procured four new guns now installed on board of new Sa’ar 6 corvettes and it is expected that advanced ammunition and more new guns will be procured in the coming years. Europe Switzerland has inked a deal to procure three dozen F-35A fighter jets, dodging a proposed popular referendum in the hopes of receiving the new jets by the end of the decade. Bern’s armaments director Martin Sonderegger and F-35 program manager Darko Savic signed the procurement contract on Monday, per a government release. The contract, worth $6.25 billion includes 36 of the conventional takeoff-and-landing aircraft variant, due to replace the nation’s fleets of F/A-18 Hornets and F-5 Tigers between 2027 and 2030. The Swiss parliament voted last week to green-light the procurement, which paved the way for the contract signatures. Asia-Pacific PKL Services won a $110.8 million deal for Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) flight operations and maintenance support training. This contract provides for F-15SG maintenance and operations training for the RSAF. Work will be performed at Mountain Home Air Force Base. Work will take place in Idaho. Expected completion date is September 30, 2027. The US administration is quietly working on a trade of nearly 50 military aircraft with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan in exchange for security assistance inside Afghanistan, Politico revealed. Afghan Air Force pilots flew the US-donated aircraft to the two neighboring Central Asian countries in August last year to avoid them being captured by the Taliban. Today’s Video WATCH: The F-35A – The right fighter aircraft for Switzerland View the full article