CDR Salamander - Carriers: Not Dead Yet, and Unquestionably not Unloved

Ethan Gossrow over at Naval News did a detailed look at the carrier portion of the 30-year shipbuilding plan that gives some texture for those who, like myself, are concerned about the slow approach to bringing new carriers online.

Even though today is no different from any other day over the last half decade, there are those who will continue to try to explain why the USN’s CVNs are “obsolete” and not worth the investment. However, reality continues to get in their way, as he quotes from the Plan:

There is no other way to project national will anywhere on the planet like a CVN. There just isn’t.

Even though we are an 11-carrier navy in a 15-carrier world…we’re not growing.

The U.S. Navy’s carrier availability rates may periodically drop due to Nimitz-class hulls being retired as the Fords continue to be slowly be inducted into service. By 2040, 4 carriers are scheduled to be delivered to the Navy, CVN-79 in 2027, CVN-80 in 2031, CVN-81 in 2034, and CVN-82 in 2039. However, in the same time frame, 1 U.S. Carrier will exit service for each one inducted (assuming there are no deviations from current projections), with the departure timeline leaving gaps in 2030, 2033, 2037, and 2038 where there are only 10 carriers in service.

Aircraft carrier sustainability is of particular concern to both Congress and Navy leadership, with previous Navy plans structured around maintaining a congressionally demanded minimum of 11 carriers, with the last instance of a 10 carrier Navy occurring between the commissioning of CVN-78 and the decommissioning of the USS Enterprise (CVN-65) in the early to mid 2010s. A 10 carrier Navy appears to be on the horizon again, placing further strain on what is perhaps the U.S.’s most in demand strategic asset.

It isn’t for lack of funding:

Gerald R. Ford-class…will receive roughly $4.07 billion in funding in Fiscal Year 2027, and a total of $22.34 billion stretching into FY 2031. The $22.3 billion allotted will provide $4.2 billion for advanced procurement relating to CVN-82 and $3.9 billion in advanced procurement for CVN-83.

Total CVN earmarked funding across the next 5 fiscal years is as follows; $4.067 billion for FY 2027, $4.822 billion for FY 2028, $5.358 billion for FY 2029, $5.027 billion for FY 2030, and $3.066 billion in FY 2031. Industrial base upgrades come in the form of $6.7 billion invested in the surface ship industrial base and a further $7.2 billion invested in Nuclear shipyard capability from fiscal years 2027-2031.

Additionally, the procurement of CVN-82 will be moved up by one fiscal year, transitioning from FY 2030 to FY 2029 with the acceleration fueled by additional funding. CVN-82 will be the Navy’s only new carrier to be procured within the FY 27 – FY 31 period, even despite the apparent re-prioritization given to the U.S. Navy’s primary strike asset.

This is the best case scenario.

Can this be sustained on a bipartisan basis, regardless of who is in power in the Executive and Legislative Branches? It will need to be.

Everyone needs to hone their arguments and have them ready. Make no mistake, over the next decade there will be a regular assault on the carriers by Good Idea Fairies and Smartest People in the Room™ who will try to bolster themselves and their theories by going after the carriers.

Your arguments better be good, because their Syren’s song will be hard to resist.

Share

Leave a comment

View the full article