CDR Salamander - Great Britain is a Warning

If everyone can, push to the side any political comments about Starmer or Trump. These are temporary players on a stage with a play going on for well over a century: that of the special relationship in national security matters between the United Kingdom and the United States.

We have not always supported each other with vigor. From the Suez Crisis to the Vietnam War—nations have agency and these things happen.

Once these spots of bother pass one way or the other, what was a constant was that, though a shadow of her height in the first half of the 20th Century, the UK was still a serious military power. It was a power that her friends and allies baked into their plans and assumptions when thinking about future conflicts.

We’ve passed that point. Yes, she has new frigates on the way. Yes, she has increased defense spending as a percentage of GDP. But, she has boxed herself into an economic box canyon that the core to any strong military power—economic power—will take decades to repair, if there is a desire to. Her regulatory environment makes California look like a libertarian paradise.

She has not stopped her deindustrialization. She is blindly submitting to the suicide cult of net-zero. The cost of energy—the mother’s milk of all prosperity—is among the highest in the West.

There are important lessons to be taken from the state Great Britain finds itself in, and what will happen, as a result, to its military capabilities now and in the future.

You can’t blame just Labour, the Conservatives have run the country for most of the last two decades. If you think Nigel Farage’s upstart Reform Party will have any different approach to defense, you’d be sadly mistaken.

Via the WSJ Editorial Board.

Mr. Farage pledged that if his party ever wins power, it will keep something called the “triple lock” on benefits as part of the British equivalent to America’s Social Security program for the elderly. Under this policy, a retiree’s “state pension” payout rises by the highest of average wage growth, inflation, or 2.5% every year. Introduced in 2011 when the Conservative Party was in power, the triple lock has caused a significant increase in benefits per retiree even as an aging population swells the ranks of claimants.

By one count, the triple lock costs about £12 billion more per year than if payouts had increased solely in line with average earnings. For comparison, annual defense spending is only some £66 billion.

If you think the UK will be able to return her military to where it needs to be through debt, you’re delusional.

• UK public debt stands at 101% of GDP, and the deficit in 2024 was the third-highest among European countries

…

The UK, like a number of other developed economies, is facing a difficult fiscal outlook. Public debt, at 101% of GDP and climbing, is historically high outside of major wars.

At the same time, the deficit was 5.7% of GDP in 2024—the third-highest among European countries.

Remember what I said about debt load? Don’t throw too much shade, Americans.

What exactly is the mother country spending her money on? Here’s her budgeted public sector expenditures 2026/27, by function, in billions GBP.

She is spending 50% more on debt interest than she is spending on national defense.

Is everyone familiar with “Ferguson’s Law,” which states that any great power that spends more on debt servicing than on defense risks ceasing to be a great power?

If not, read up on it.

Again, America…be careful about throwing shade. We’re not far behind.

Can the UK tax its way out of this?

No, not really. Taxes are at a level not seen since the end of WWII.

What does that mean for those concerned about the national defense of the United Kingdom, her allies & commonwealth, and the United States?

For my entire life, the UK had a strong enough military to be a player on the world stage—either by herself against medium powers—or as the junior partner of first resort for the United States.

I served with them. I went to war with them. They were/are good, but—as we used to joke about their very small strike plates in the 00s body armor—they are woefully underfunded.

The incident with Cyprus and the sad state of HMS Dragon are just a problematic symptom of a larger problem.

In a way, today’s post builds off the Royal Navy update last month.

People should soak this all in. If you care about the UK, or only care about how here sickness can impact her friends and neighbors, I’d recommend you listen to Liam Halligan on the Winston Marshall podcast.

To tie things up for today, regulars know I like to remind everyone that the greatest threat to the U.S. is our own national debt.

We are not as bad as the UK by most measures, but we are following in her direction. We should look at what she has done to herself and do what we can to ensure we do not follow in her footsteps.

I’m not optimistic.

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