CDR Salamander - Will Scandinavian and Baltic Europe Lead our European Allies to the Strait of Hormuz?

In the first week of this year, I made my feeling about the unfortunate Greenland kerfuffle clear, so no need to replow that field. I also have a love/frustration relationship with the Danes.

As we tried to fill the CJSOR for ISAF in the 00s, the unending nightmare was having to say, “Well, that is nice…but what are the national caveats?”

At least for the first decade of the war, if you saw GBR, AUS, NLD, CAN, EST, DNK on that CJSOR line, you could take a bit of a breath as you knew there would be very few national caveats that would make their utility much different than a U.S. unit. Other nations…not so much.

Denmark and Estonia were, in essence, interchangeable with American units. It was just a shame that their nations,

1. Had populations of 5.4 and 1.4 million souls each at mid-decade, respectively.

2. At the same time, were spending 1.5% and 1.8% of GDP on defense.

Though their nations were small and their units’ contributions were limited in number, their people on the tactical level were pound-for-pound better than most…but their governments were simply not spending their fair share on defense—limiting their ability to contribute.

The heart was willing, but the pocketbook was light.

That drove my disappointment that, of all nations, we decided to stomp on the Danes more than most over the last year or so. They got defensive and flinty—to about the same degree I would if I were in their shoes.

All that being said—the Danes are a practical people who have a significant maritime industry and are clear headed about how that impacts their and everyone else’s economy.

The Danish Foreign Minister is, understandable, trying to nudge the EU to step up.

In light of escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, Denmark has taken the initiative to advocate for a comprehensive EU-wide response aimed at enhancing security in this vital maritime passage. Recognizing the strategic significance of the Strait, which facilitates a substantial portion of global oil transportation, Danish officials are pushing for unified action among European Union member states.

The call for an EU response comes as recent incidents have raised alarms about the safety of shipping routes in the region. Denmark’s government emphasizes that a coordinated approach is necessary to deter potential threats and safeguard the interests of EU nations that rely on these shipping lanes for energy supplies.

Proposals from Denmark include increased naval presence and surveillance, as well as the establishment of collaborative frameworks for rapid response to incidents at sea. The country is seeking to engage with other EU members to discuss potential contributions to maritime security operations.

The EU moves at the speed of smell.

Denmark is a small nation with an excellent, but modest navy. She cannot do the right thing by herself…and she seems to be doing exactly what I would do if I were them…find a way to help her neighbors do what is needed without giving the USA the satisfaction of having to serve in a U.S. led C2 architecture.

We’re still friends, but we’ve hurt each others feeling recently and it will take time.

Yes, international relations is often like middle school. I don’t like it, I just accept it.

Oh, and Estonia…they’re forming up.

Estonia’s defense minister is open to helping the United States in its war with Iran.

In an interview Tuesday evening, minister Hanno Pevkur said he was meeting with U.S. officials, including deputy national security adviser Andy Baker and defense leaders, and had a message: “We are ready to talk.”

This is an airtight statement of an adult.

Pevkur said “it’s not worth much to discuss” how the situation unfolded. “The reality is that it happened, it is ongoing, and we need to find a solution.”

Finland’s President Alexander Stubb said Tuesday he could see a potential deal in offering Trump European military support to secure the waterway, in exchange for the U.S. supporting Ukraine to reach an acceptable peace deal with Russia.

There is a window of opportunity here for the U.S. to mend some unforced errors. I hope we take advantage of this.

Estonia has three ~35 year old former Royal Navy minesweepers…but they also have more real world experience hunting mines than about anyone on the planet. By their offer in synch with the Danish effort, it should add some weight to the effort to bring others to form up…one would hope.

Along those same lines, NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte is solid on the Iran and Strait of Hormuz question.

Progress.

UPDATE: The momentum is real.

Earlier today we say the issue of a Joint statement from the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan on the Strait of Hormuz.

I’ll cut out the diplomatic boilerplace and Model UN chaff and cut to the meaty bits

…we emphasise that such interference with international shipping and the disruption of global energy supply chains constitute a threat to international peace and security. In this regard, we call for an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations.

We express our readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait. We welcome the commitment of nations who are engaging in preparatory planning.

…

Maritime security and freedom of navigation benefit all countries. We call on all states to respect international law and uphold the fundamental principles of international prosperity and security.

The inclusion of Japan is no small matter. Such a maritime group outside of a U.S. structure needs robust air defense. The Royal Navy’s best air defense destroyers are flat footed at the moment from an availability point of view and are a bit worn out, the other navies are used to having a U.S. Navy ship carry that load…however the Japanese Navy’s DDGs are functional equivalents of U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke DDGs.

It would be a good moment to see the Japanese Navy pick up the mission she did so well in the Great War.

They’ve done this before.

…in the spring of 1917. The light cruiser Akashi and eight destroyers arrived in Malta in April 1917. Along with additional ships that arrived later, these constituted the Second Special Squadron. At that point, the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman fleets were largely bottled up and overmatched by the combination of Italian, French, and British ships. However, the Japanese could (and did) contribute to the anti-submarine mission. The U-boat war had left the Royal Navy hard-pressed, despite its continuing advantage over the Germans in the North Sea. The Second Special Squadron did not sink any submarines, but it did defend against several attacks and conduct rescues of shipwrecked sailors. The destroyer HIJMS Sakaki took a torpedo from a German submarine in June 1917, but managed to make port despite the deaths of 59 sailors.

Altogether, three cruisers and 12 destroyers served the Allied cause in the Mediterranean. British officers rated Japanese naval professionalism as significantly higher than that of the French or the Italians.

Good. All good.

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