Related to my other posts on this subject, how likely are these 2020 possibilities...

 

South Africa: Mostly capable of defending its own interests with a medium-sized air force and a good coastal navy; capable of convoy missions; not really able to project power

 

Nigeria: Mostly capable of defending its own interests with a medium-sized air force and a good coastal navy; capable of convoy missions (they would need a couple of frigates to do this...who would they buy them from...England?); not really able to project power

 

Most other African nations have little in the way of navies, but continue to buy aircraft...I'm going to guess mostly F-7s from China and other less expensive Chinese aircraft; China and Africa are going to be great friends in the years to come in this area, I hear. Any of them likely to buy true warships in the near future?

 

Brazil will continue to develop its navy and will have actual global projection power, similar to, say, France, Spain, or Italy. I wonder who Brazil would be most likely to fight with as an ally or against as an enemy, both in Latin America and on the global stage? How do they feel about the Japanese, the Chinese, etc.?

 

Venezuela, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and Chile all have good coastal navies, air forces capable of regional conflicts, frigates and destroyers capable of convoy missions, and submarines, but no true power projection. They would, however, all be tough nuts for anyone like the US or the EU to try to crack. Venezuela in particular will probably be able to buy more planes, ships, and subs with its oil money.

 

What happens to Cuba, Mexico, and Argentina? Anyone? I'm guessing they would all strive to be like Peru or Venezuela. Would Argentina try to buy or build a new carrier (or at least a CVH)?

 

Thoughts? Ideas? Opinions?

This seems right on. it's an 8, no meds needed. How about, in the absence of a diminished USA, Brazilian resistance to Chinese adventurism in or near Venezuela? Or in West Africa? The general subject of Chinese influence in Africa has great potential, Brad has already explored that in "Trophy Hunter", an excellent scenario.