May 27, 201214 yr Related to my last post, here's a possible breakdown of Asia in 2020... China: Continues to grow as a global power India: Continues to grow as a regional player capable of global power projection In response to America having less global influence (not so much an American decline but that other nations like China are catching up), Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia have all taken steps to increase their navies and are more capable of handling convoy missions, anti-piracy missions around the world, even projecting power to an extent with helicopter carriers, etc. Iran, Yemen, North Korea, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Vietnam focus on building up their air forces, coastal naval forces, and submarine forces; they are not so much concerned with global power projection as being able to fight regional battles, expand into nearby territory, and deny other nations access to the sea lanes if they have to. Iraq has a small navy consisting of ships sold to it by the United States. Australia, New Zealand, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the other Gulf nations maintain their existing power levels, ready and able to defend their interests if they have to, but mostly concerned with tending their own gardens and leaving other people alone. How likely is this scenario, on a scale of 1 to 10? This is with 1 being "Okay, Mark, time for your medication" and 10 being "This is what will happen. No doubt." Assuming it is a likely overview of the power blocs we might see in 10 years, what are the most likely points of conflict...who is most likely to start shooting at whom, and what would they be quarreling over?
Create an account or sign in to comment