Raw Intel

I first saw this map three years ago, and it recently resurfaced in my thoughts. I remain convinced that a lot of the problem with trying to get everyone to fully understand the challenge in the Western Pacific is that to a large part, we think in a ‘north-up’ orientation. I don’t think that is all that helpful. Just a few days ago, we had another Pearl Harbor Day anniversary and we’ve all seen the maps, usually centered on Hawaii, where the Imperial Japanese Navy’s Kidō Butai comes at the Pacific Fleet from stage left off the map. Then we fought battles in the Coral Sea, Midway, and so on. To the lay eye — or to those who don’t have time to dig into the reasons — a trad…

So, half a decade after we started the program to design our next oiler, all we have is this circa-1998 MS Paint graphic. We have what we have. Let’s look at where it started. The TAOL program (referred to in some documents as the NGLS or Next-Generation Medium Logistics Ship program) was initiated in the Navy’s FY2021 budget submission. The program envisages building a new class of CLF ships (or a family of CLF ship designs) that would be smaller and individually less expensive to procure than the Navy’s current CLF ships. Figure 1 shows a sketch of a Navy notional TAOL design concept. The Navy states that the TAOL is planned to be, “a new class of ships to augment the …

China stole a march on us. In any multiplayer game, you cannot get scope-locked. While you may focus on one enemy or one particular part of the game, others are not standing by idly, politely waiting their turn to move. No, they will encourage your distraction. They will let you indulge yourself in other problems. Meanwhile, they move through the unguarded gates into fertile fields. We live on a large, round ball—but we think right and left because that is what our maps look like on our wall, across our screens. North-up, head-down, obsessing about the grind off some hot, dry, legacy concern or wet tropical island no one has heard of. Where are moves taking place we are n…

Learn from it. On the list of things future historians will blow-torch early 21st Century US Navy leadership over will be the almost criminal mismanagement of their battle fleet - and it's cruiser fleet most of all. Building off the least worst compromise of making a cruiser from a Spruance Class destroyer in the last quarter of the 20th Century, we coasted in the "peace dividend" 1990s by ignoring a century of shipbuilding experience by not having the replacement class of warship building as the last of the previous class was finishing up. A bit more than a decade and a half later, the absolute Monty Python skit that was CG(X) blew up the second best option. That…

We've spent a long time here and on Midrats discussing the almost criminal neglect of the "unsexy but important" parts of our maritime national security infrastructure by our uniformed and civilian leadership over the last three decades. It goes beyond the wholesale destruction of our base, shipyard, and repair facilities. Over and above our under-resourced auxiliaries from ice breakers to command ships. We have a moribund merchant marine, almost non-existent war reserve, and our repair facilities are so incredibly delicate they cannot meet the well planned peace time repairs, much less any realistic wartime requirements. And yet ... we continue to mindless drift in histo…

While the Royal Navy's new aircraft carrier and her battlegroup heading east of Suez for a bit of showing the flag, with her Dutch and American friends along for comic relief, the Arabian sea the last week seemed to wake up. The chief of Israel’s armed forces spoke with his British counterpart on Sunday, the Israeli military said, after London accused Iran of carrying out an attack on an Israeli-managed ship off Oman last week that killed a Briton and a Romanian. Lieutenant-General Aviv Kohavi and Britain’s Staff General Nick Carter “discussed recent events in the region and common challenges faced by both countries,” said an Israeli military statement... In case…

Geography doesn't change. To a slightly lesser extent, neither do historic patterns. Even if Ukraine wins the Russo-Ukrainian War, Russia will still be to the east from Central Europe. She will be back in one form or another. After the fall of the Soviet Union, liberation, and joining NATO - helped with a lot of ahistorical thinking on both sides of the Atlantic - there was a bit of hedging that there was time to rebuild Central European economies and civil society before a threat from the east came back. For almost three decades the former Warsaw Pact members of NATO let their military capabilities and investments fall closer to 1% of GDP as opposed to the 2% minimum. T…

To everything there is a season. Over the last 18 months, a lot of national, personal, and political capital was invested by the present administration to try to get Ukraine and Russia to the negotiation table to stop a war that has been going on longer than WWII. This is not just a war between brothers like the U.S. Civil War, where—as fights between brothers are—things become more brutal and go longer than expected, but it is a war where both sides are limited on what they can do to bring the war to any end outside complete victory. For Ukraine, the war is existential. Should Ukraine lose, she would be lucky to become little more than a rump Belarus after Russian force…

Want to get a more wholistic view of what is and what is not worth the investment of strategic effort, sacrifice, and investment? Follow the money. Pondering a great graphic over at USNIBlog. Come by and puzz'l your nogg'n with me for a bit. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=qj6IDK7rITs http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=M3Aa8mHvcmI:w4kkIfL0PHE:gIN9vFwOqvQ http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=M3Aa8mHvcmI:w4kkIfL0PHE:-BTjWOF_DHI http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=M3Aa8mHvcmI:w4kkIfL0PHE:V_sGLiPBpWU http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=M3Aa8mHvcmI:w4kkI…

I don't know who lead it will be or what crisis will cause it, but at some point we will realize that the golden calf idol of a procurement process we seem to think is a god is not only false, it is evil. An entire generation going or two of acquisition professionals have grown up in a system that consistently fails the nation. It doesn't have to be this inefficient or this ineffective, but it is. Latest datapoint is the overthinking and self-doubt is the replacement for the Super Hornet. We have individuals who know what needs to be done - and if they had their way we would be a long way down the road to a modern fighter to replaced the butched-up 1970s runner-up th…

One thing the USA can do better than anyone else is move a lot of people quickly even in the most hazardous environment. As mentioned by MG Taylor, USA this AM, in the last 24-hrs 25 C-17, 3 C-130 and 61 commercial aircraft carried 16,000 people out of Kabul. The US military was responsible for a little under 11,000 of those. MG Taylor: As of this morning, 25 U.S. Military C-17s, 3 U.S. Military C-130s and 61 charter/commercial flights departed Kabul. The total passenger count for those flights was approximately 16,000. Of that number, the U.S. military transported just under 11,000 personnel. pic.twitter.com/wsZYBAa3Mh — Department of Defense 🇺🇸 (@DeptofDefense) August…

Just a little note that at least for the first half of this week, I will have limited access to internet to properly blog on what I’d like to, so things will be thin for a bit ... all is well ... thanks for you patience. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=qj6IDK7rITs http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=6aAsZbf8uYk:cbrvbY2VASg:gIN9vFwOqvQ http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=6aAsZbf8uYk:cbrvbY2VASg:-BTjWOF_DHI http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=6aAsZbf8uYk:cbrvbY2VASg:V_sGLiPBpWU http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=6aAsZbf8uYk:cbrvbY2VASg:F7zBnMyn0Lo …

Having trouble keeping up with the world around you? Head swirling with too much? You’re not alone. Good news…we’ll get you all caught up and set right. Returning to the Midrats Podcast this Sunday LIVE from 5-6 PM Eastern will be Blake Herzinger. You can listen live at this link. If you’re reading this after the show, refresh the Substack page later Sunday evening and the podcast will be uploaded and linked. Leave a comment Share This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. View the full article

Show LinksCoast Guard Petty Officer Scott Ruskan Modern Chinese Maritime Forces, 01JUL2025 Edition. Frontline states say “bye” to the Ottawa Convention on Mines. King's Navy: Fleet Admiral Ernest J. King and the Rise of American Sea Power, 1897–1947 Heritage DataViz on US Fleet promises v. PLAN Execution MK-58 torpedo SummaryIn this episode, the host discusse… Read more View the full article

Show LinksReforming the promotion system in DOD Australian Missile Canister Loading Equipment (MCLE) USNS Oscar V. Peterson (T‑AO 206) SummaryIn this episode of the Commander Salamander UNCLAS Read Board Podcast, the host discusses various topics related to national security, military developments, and the challenges faced by the Navy. Key themes include t… Read more View the full article

Show LinksGaza COA Decision Brief, 11 October, 2023 We're Burning Another Amphib: this time the USS New Orleans (LPD 18) The Melting Point: High Command and War in the 21st Century, by Kenneth F. McKenzie Longstreet: The Confederate General Who Defied the South Hardcover, by Elizabeth Varon (Author) SummaryIn this episode, Sal discusses various pressing top… Read more View the full article

Show LinksTrump says he now thinks Ukraine can win back all territory taken by Russia Operation Granby and stockpiles SummaryIn this episode, the host discusses various pressing national security issues, including the implications of air-launched cruise missiles, the ongoing Gaza conflict, and the historical context of political violence. The conversation… Read more View the full article

Show LinksIan Ellis’s outline of Caribbean U.S. Navy deployment The Melting Point: High Command and War in the 21st Century, by Kenneth F. McKenzie SummaryIn this conversation, Sal discusses various geopolitical issues, including a potential peace deal in Israel and Gaza, the implications of Iran’s weakened position, reflections on General McKenzie’s book… Read more View the full article

SummaryIn this episode, the host reflects on personal experiences growing up in Florida’s East Coast during the Space Age, discusses the current state of naval ships, and addresses geopolitical concerns in Venezuela and Nigeria. The conversation also touches on the situation in Sudan and the rise of South Korea in military production, concluding with re… Read more View the full article

SummaryIn this episode, Sal discusses various pressing global issues, including the evolving role of Saudi Arabia, the ongoing drug cartel crisis in the Americas, and the ethical responsibilities of military personnel in politics. He also addresses the challenges within the military-industrial complex, a recent surge in aircraft mishaps, and the importa… Read more View the full article