Raw Intel

Here is one hard fact; Australia has 1.7% of the population of Communist China. Additionally, Australia is 80% of the landmass of Communist China. Australia is also heavily reliant on China with regard to trade. 39% all goods exported in 2019-20 go to China, while 27% of all goods imported were from China. This is top of mind to the Chinese Communist Party. As they have in other parts of the world, once China gets comfortable with their economic leverage, they will begin to use it against you. They are not too good at it, and more often than not they come out as rather thuggish. They also lack cultural competence to see that what may work in some parts of the w…

Sometime, hundreds of thousands of years ago during the Early or Middle Paleolithic Era in a coastal area, lake, or river system, our primitive ancestors discovered the use of a dugout canoe to fish and transport what they could hunt or gather from the surrounding forest. At some point, they discovered that another band of humans were harvesting from their best fig tree and were fishing from their river. They were barely holding on as it was; they could not afford to let others come in and take one of their most reliable food sources. Two of the younger men found out where the outsiders were camped. It was half a day upriver, but impossible to get to by land. So, a wis…

You have to give the People’s Republic of China (PRC) credit for consistency. They like islands. On Sunday’s Midrats Podcast, we touched on this rather brazen act that would be laughable if not serious. The Batanes Islands, which are covered by the so-called maritime delimitation talks between Japan and the Philippines, are legally China's sovereign territory and form a natural geographic extension of China's Taiwan island. China should take corresponding actions to assert its sovereignty over the Batanes, the Global Times learned from Chinese experts and scholars at a symposium. The academic symposium on the sovereignty issue of the Batanes Islands was convened at Jinan…

The US military and her Commonwealth allies lost over 10,000 men killed in the Solomon Islands Campaign in WWII. Over 40 USN ships were sunk, 800 aircraft shot down. We killed almost 90,000 Japanese, sunk over 50 of her ships, and destroyed over 1,500 of her aircraft to kick her out. You should know the map and the names. How many warships do we have named after this campaign from battles to those who fought in it? How have we honored this legacy? How have we maintained this legacy? We've been reporting on our lack of stewardship in the islands of the Western Pacific for years now, and things are getting more attention, but still do not seem to be getting much better …

For decades, while the rest of the world’s powers have distracted and tangled themselves with wars of choice and blunder, the People’s Republic of China has been watching, learning, and building. To what end? Returning to Midrats to discuss this and more will be Dean Cheng. You can listen live here, today from 5-6 pm Eastern. If you are reading this after the show, refresh the Substack page later Sunday evening for all the podcast links. Dean Cheng, Senior Advisor, United States Institute of Peace; Non-resident Senior Fellow, Potomac Institute for Policy Studies; Non-resident Fellow, George Washington University Space Policy Institute. He recently retired after 13 years …

While the world's eyes are focused on Russia and Ukraine - and probably will for the foreseeable future - the People's Republic of China is not standing still. How can China use this moment to her advantage? What possible lessons can China take away from the Ukraine conflict so far, and perhaps more importantly, how should it impact how we and our allies look at China? Returning to Midrats to discuss these and related questions this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern will be our guest Dean Cheng. Dean is the Senior Research Fellow for Chinese political and security affairs at the Asia Studies Center of The Heritage Foundation. He specializes in Chinese military and foreign polic…

What are the of economic, demographic, and political forces driving China through this decade? What direction is her growth heading and where will she find herself at the end of the decade? Are the forces in play likely to move her towards a more peaceful or a more militaristic stance? Using the recent article he co-authored with Gabriel Collins in Foreign Policy, A Dangerous Decade of Chinese Power is Here, as a starting point, returning to Midrats for the full hour this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern will be Andrew S. Erickson. Andrew is a professor of strategy in the U.S. Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute and a visiting scholar in full-time residence at …

Of all the theories out there about if/when/where the People’s Republic of China may decide to claw back more territory they “lost” during their century of humiliation, there is one common thread that is there, but is not given the attention it deserves: demographics. The demographic collapse we are all about to see over the next few decades will arrive in East Asia first, then Europe. The greatest impact on the globe will be in East Asia, simply by the numbers, if nothing else. Demographics are one of those things you really cannot spin your way out of. You can’t catch up. A baby is born and reaches adulthood—or it does not. You can try to hide numbers and lie to your b…

Start the week with a short video and a French map to set your thinking in the right direction. Issue-1: The People’s Republic of China (PRC), having drained as much as she can from nearby seas, has decided to strip-mine life from the most remote corners of our shared oceans. All I can think about is how reckless and unsustainable this is. It all comes from a mix of greed and worries about internal security from a poor and malnourished population—a not uncommon historical Chinese problem Issue-2: China, even as she has grown powerful, remains an incredibly insecure nation against the rest of the world. Creating land around your sea lines of communication so you can claim …

I wouldn't call this a "secret base" or that much of a surprise. China is secretly building a naval facility in Cambodia for the exclusive use of its military, with both countries denying that is the case and taking extraordinary measures to conceal the operation, Western officials said. The military presence will be on the northern portion of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base on the Gulf of Thailand, which is slated to be the site of a groundbreaking ceremony this week, according to the officials, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. The establishment of a Chinese naval base in Cambodia — only its second such overseas outp…

Alas, poor American icebreakers! I knew them, Shipmate: a fellow of infinite use, of most excellent capability: he hath borne me honor, commerce, and discovery a thousand times; and now, how abhorred in my imagination it is! My gorge rises at it! -Apologies to the Bard When you have the world’s largest navy, you soon realize you can be everywhere, all at once, because you want to. We all had fun at the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) navy and coast guard’s expense yesterday in Operation Bumper Boats, but now it is time to get back to serious things. As we discussed six months ago, the PRC is not an Arctic nation. It has, at best, a tertiary concern with the Arctic. Jus…

Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan managed to bring the national security eyeballs back to the Western Pacific after half a year in Eastern Europe. The People’s Republic of China has not been distracted by the Russo-Ukrainian War any more than she was with our two decades distraction in Central and Southwest Asia. She remains focused on two things: - Pushing America to her side of the Pacific. - Establish herself as the primary regional and then global power. Where does China stand today, and where is she heading for the rest of the decade? We have a great guest this Sunday at 3pm Eastern to dive in to these and related topics, James E. Fanell, Captain, USN (Ret.) Jim concl…

Known to all on and considered to be part of the Front Part is friend to the blog, Midrats, and me personally, is Dr. Claude Berube; reserve Naval Officer, author, professor, and all-around good guy. After a long record of service teaching political science and history at the United States Naval Academy and director of the U.S. Naval Academy Museum, Claude is moving on to start a new chapter. In a highly enjoyable retrospective of his time in Annapolis, Claude becomes a guest on the podcast he started, Preble Hall, as interviews by Dr. Marcus Faulkner. Enjoy. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=…

Ever wonder how fast things can come at you in combat ... and how fast you have to react to survive? Simply stunning video from the shootdown of a Russian S-25 in Ukraine: No other aircraft has been so valuable - and no aircraft has been shot down more - than the SU-25 in this conflict. Many regulars here are very familiar with "time compression" in such situations. Time slows down a lot. If you have not experienced that, you may wonder how he is able to eject so fast to survive a direct hit at 200-meters (about 600'). Well, training is one, but time compression is another. This slow-motion video makes it a little closer to what it felt like to the pilot. RUS Su…

OK, that may be a stretch but we may have an opening to discuss the logistics and maintenance holes that everyone else was ignoring this century. I'm not a fan of all he has plans for 2021, but I am encouraged by a recent statement. Details over at USNIBlog. Come on by and tell me your thoughts. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=qj6IDK7rITs http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=4-1vGL_D2kA:2QuwJRWKFt0:gIN9vFwOqvQ http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=4-1vGL_D2kA:2QuwJRWKFt0:-BTjWOF_DHI http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=4-1vGL_D2kA:2QuwJRWKFt0:V_sGLiPBpWU http:…

Gina Harkins over at Military Times yesterday has some great quotes from CNO Gilday. He is saying things most readers here will be happy with. It would have been ideal for a CNO 10-12 years ago to have said most of the following – because it was as true then as it is now – but we’ll take today over another decade’s wait. We need to look for action and follow through, but this is all very sound stuff; "I don't mean to be dramatic, but I feel like, if the Navy loses its head, if we go off course and we take our eyes off those things we need to focus on ... I think we may not be able to recover in this century," Gilday told reporters Friday, ahead of the document's rele…

Along the spectrum from peacetime exercises to wartime combined operations, successfully integrating multinational forces is not a pick-up game. To do it right requires leaders and institutions years of practice, trust, and demonstrated ability. This is true of all military operations, but especially true when moving forces ashore during amphibious operations. In our constellation of allies, partners and friends along the shores of the Indo-Pacific theater, since 2015 the United States Marine Forces Pacific has led the multi-national Pacific Amphibious Leaders Symposium. Today we are going to dive in to not just the symposium itself to the broader topic of combined amphib…

While we are saddled with the best thinking the early 1980s can muster, the Communist Chinese government just updated their military law to better align with their national security requirements. What, exactly, are we doing? I'm pondering a bit over at USNIBlog. Come gnash your teeth with me. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=qj6IDK7rITs http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=TGw0uEizdH0:U75thItqEkE:gIN9vFwOqvQ http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=TGw0uEizdH0:U75thItqEkE:-BTjWOF_DHI http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=TGw0uEizdH0:U75thItqEkE:V_sGLiPBpWU http://fe…

As regulars here know, there are two defining cultures that shaped who I am. First, both sides of my family are Old Line Southern families who have been in the South for four centuries. Second, I grew up in Florida with the children of Cuban and Iranian refugees. The former, especially, shaped my view of the greatest cancer on this planet in the last two centuries—Communism. As a fellow Floridian of the same age, I just nodded and smiled when Secretary of State Marco Rubio's State Department published, Cuba: the Capital of 21st Century Communism. It pulls it all together. It is a document that serves as a marker, a Ref. A, and a testament. I encourage you to put it on you…

Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) along with Congressmen Jim Banks (R-IN), Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), and Mike Gallagher (R-WI) commissioned a study by Lieutenant General Robert E. Schmidle, USMC, Ret. and Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, USN, Ret. on a series of issues familiar to regulars here and on Midrats. It was released on Monday and at only 22 pages is an easy read, the aptly titled, "A Report on the Culture of the United States Navy Surface Fleet" is a compact summary you should take time to read in full. What does it use as the basis for its review? 77 unique and formal interviews were conducted with Navy personnel via an extensive hour-long process to establish a common c…