Raw Intel

We cannot do anything about the continental powerhouses in NATO who can also make a bid difference helping the Ukrainians defend their soil. Specifically Germany and France, who mostly insist on token assistance or sitting on the sidelines relatively speaking as Russia gets ready for a mid-20th Century like summer offensive east of the Carpathians, but we can do what we can do. Though our industrial capacity is not ready to support a long, global conflict - we do have quite a deep warehouse of items that are slightly used, but good for a few more years. As we have already come off the sidelines in the Russo-Ukrainian War when it comes to supplying lethal aid, we might as …

What path best enhances American security and prosperity, along with her allies, when it comes to the Russo-Ukrainian War? Are American's interests best promoted by more support of Ukraine's ongoing fight for her independence, or by backing away to let things take their natural course? Isolationists, realists, and idealists are all trying to make their case as to where to go next as the war moves in to its second year. What are their arguments, and for those who say they promote a "Realist" policy - how do they define Realism? Out guest for the full hour this Sunday from 5 to 6pm Eastern to discuss this and related issues she raised in her latest article in National Revie…

Since 17 of our Sailors drowned in berthing after the collisions of the summer of 2017 to now - we have covered almost the time it took from the attack on Pearl Harbor to victory in Tokyo Bay ... and yet ... what have we really done? Look at the metrics. That's what I did over at USNIBlog. Come and see. http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=yIl2AUoC8zA http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?d=qj6IDK7rITs http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=g3oFD2hsujQ:40ZR1PD4JA8:gIN9vFwOqvQ http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=g3oFD2hsujQ:40ZR1PD4JA8:-BTjWOF_DHI http://feeds.feedburner.com/~ff/blogspot/FAFV?i=g3oFD2hsujQ:40ZR1PD4JA8:V_sGLiPB…

There is something going on more than the usual spring maneuvers in Russian occupied Ukraine. The below from Der Spiegel is in Crimea ... so not an easy jump further in to mainland Ukrainian territory ... but ... still. Moscow has been relocating military units near the Ukraine for weeks. Trains with tanks, howitzers and transporters are also rolling into the Crimea, annexed by Russia . A huge new army camp has arisen in the east of the Black Sea Peninsula, as satellite images available to SPIEGEL show. About 30 kilometers from the town of Marfivka near the coast, the Russian military has gradually built a makeshift base, as this animation shows. If the area was …

Exciting news, well at least to me, of the growing presence of Japan in the security environment in the Western Pacific. It looks like one area she might be selling aircraft and related services will be in Vietnam of all places. I barely contain my joy over at USNIBlog. Come on by for the details! View the full article

SummaryIn this conversation, Chris Brose, President and Chief Strategy Officer of Anduril, discusses the company’s mission to revolutionize defense technology by integrating commercial innovations into military applications. He emphasizes the need for mass-producible military capabilities, the importance of adaptability in modern warfare, and the challenges posed by the current U.S. acquisition system. Brose also highlights the significance of collaborative combat systems and international partnerships, particularly through the Ghost Shark program with the Australian Navy. He expresses optimism about the future of U.S. defense, advocating for a shift towards a more agile …

Why are Naval Academy football players dying? In the last seven years, three Midshipmen who played at least two years of football at the US Naval Academy and the Naval Academy Prep School have died of natural causes. 2014: Will McKamey, 19, 5-9, 170-pounds: died after collapsing and falling in to a coma during practice. History of brain injury. 2020: David Forney, 22, 6'3" 305 pounds: died of cardiac arrest in his room. 2021: Michael Myles James, 22, 5'11" 230 pounds (2018): unspecified natural causes in his sleep. Recruited to play football, went to NAPS, played freshman year. I have kids the same age as these MIDN, that is what first caught my attention. I cannot…

That is, of course, a subject question. However, there are objective facts that stand independent of that subjectivity.Where you are in time and place is important. In the area of national security, disconnects and discontinuities in time and place caused by a desire for reality to be what we want it to be consume the finite resources of time, money, and focus from actions to address what reality actual is. Denial fed by delusional distractions, as it were. Take a moment to back up a bit and think about the top national security concerns of 2021. What do they signal to you as the most important parts of the United States’ national security infrastructure needs to inve…

The decades-long slide into near irrelevance of the industry that led to our victory in WWII—our shipbuilding overmatch over the Axis powers—continues to receive more attention over the last couple of years. We have been “appreciating the problem” for as long as I’ve been blogg’n, and it has been a regular topic of The Long Game series we started at the OG Blog in 2004. There is a critical mass of “problem appreciation” that is beginning to resonate across the maritime sphere, but everyone is still waiting for concrete—pun intended—action. It won’t happen overnight, but one does want to see real progress. I am optimistic, but the task is as great as the generational negle…

Over the July 4th weekend, we slipped out of the American fortress in Bagram. The way we left tells you all you need to know about Afghanistan – the conflict we lost in December 2009 when the Taliban were given the last indication they needed that we were not going to press the issue on our time and change Afghanistan our way, but we would let them win on their time and return Afghanistan their way. It is all as clear now as it was when I wrote about our culmination at Obama’s West Point speech linked above. Regulars here know the story; the rest can follow the link above. Good ideas are timeless, so I want to return to a topic that predates CDRSalamander and this is a …

This week, navalists everywhere are having fun with the comments by Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth at Center for Strategic and International Studies back on December 1st. First of all ... let's go to the map room. What? Not clear enough? Let me help. Over on twitter, I promised a thorough fisking of her comments ... so here we go. "A more powerful Chinese military helps to underwrite Beijing's strategy to achieve the 'great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation' by 2049 — to include development of the PLA [People's Liberation Army] into a 'world class military' by midcentury," "China's focus on modernizing its military capabilities will strengthen its ability …

No, it is not.Today, no nation can find lasting security without addressing the climate crisis. We face all kinds of threats in our line of work, but few of them truly deserve to be called existential. The climate crisis does…climate change is making the world more unsafe, and we need to act. - Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, at the Leaders Summit on Climate, April 22, 2021 As a species, humans have thrived under drastically higher and lower sea levels; colder and warmer climates. The slow changes we are seeing now are not existential. Not even close. It is a challenge - maybe in some areas a mounting crisis, but not existential. It is something that, even if a mounti…

In September of last year, the national security story was the announcement of AUKUS - trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Though the Russo-Ukrainian War quickly took it from headlines, it is still moving forward - and in ways you may not expect. These three Anglosphere nations have a long cultural, diplomatic, economic, and military history together - so many of the building blocks are already there to make something impressive. Using his recent article in the Australian Strategic Policy Institute as a starting off point, our guest for the full hour returning to Midrats this Sunday from 5-6pm Eastern will be Dr. Alessio …

On Sunday’s Midrats Podcast, our guest Liz Buchanan mentioned an article out of Australia by Laura Tingle, China's parade of military might raises big questions about the AUKUS muddle. I gave it a read and thought it would be a good move to start the week with it. Yes, it is Tuesday and not Monday, but I’m having “a moment.” Bear with me for the next 10 days or so. Tingle covers a lot of ground here, and she suffers a bit of a foreigner’s incomplete understanding of Trump World, but I’d like to put that to the side and focus on a welcome Australian view of the present state of play WRT AUKUS. For an island nation roughly the size of the continental USA with a population b…

Yes, September is Australian Appreciation Month on the Midrats Podcast. Building on our discussion earlier this month with Liz Buchanan, we are returning to the perspective from the Antipodes with returning guest, Gray Connolly. From Afghanistan, to the Antarctic, we’ll have a broad-reaching discussion of allied national security concerns from the Australian perspective. You can listen at this link, or via Spotify widget below. Gray Connolly served as a Naval Intelligence officer in the Royal Australian Navy. He graduated from the Royal Australian Naval College and holds the King’s Commission. Gray is a graduate in Arts (Honours - History) from the University of Sydney a…

This may get lost in the background noise, but if you are concerned about the rule of law, democratic governance and security in the Pacific, you would be hard pressed to find more important news than this; Australia and Japan are set to sign a treaty to beef up defence and security cooperation at a virtual summit on Thursday, in the latest move to strengthen ties amid China's rising military power and economic clout in the Indo-Pacific region. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the two leaders will sign a Reciprocal Access Agreement, which will for the first time set out a framework for the two countries' defence forces to cooperate with each other. What do t…

There is absolutely nothing wrong with admitting you were wrong and foolish. It’s OK. You can be fooled by people who take advantage of your good nature. Fair-play and high-trust societies can, if they are not wary, be taken advantage of by bad-faith actors. The key is that when your vision becomes clear about what has happened, you take appropriate action. You learn your lesson, and you carry on in a more productive manner. This did not happen by accident, nor was it inspired by capitalist desire alone, though that was the mechanism. Behold the fruit this tree bears. Via Angus Grigg, Alex McDonald, and Will Nicholas at the Australian Broadcasting Corp. Chinese companies …

The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) has made its decision, and it’s a good one. Via Mike Yeo at Breaking Defense; Australia has selected Japan’s improved Mogami-class frigate design for its future fleet of general-purpose frigates, in a deal with further cements ties between the two US Indo-Pacific allies and gives Japan its first major defense export. “Following a rigorous and competitive tender process, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ Mogami-class frigate was assessed as best able to quickly meet the capability requirements and strategic needs of the Australian Defence Force (ADF),” said the Australian Defence Department in a media release. The Royal Australian Navy (RAN) will…

It is one thing to talk about a "Pacific Pivot" or the importance of the Indo-Pacific theater ... but you signal you are serious by your actions. I think Australia has put down a marker ... and they are making the correct move. They see the Long Game. A three-decades-long Australian naval presence in the Middle East will come to an abrupt end this year as the Federal Government grapples with an increasingly uncertain strategic environment closer to home. Defence Minister Linda Reynolds has announced Australia will no longer send a Royal Australian Navy ship to the Middle East every year. ... The shift was flagged in the Government's recent Defence Strategic Update,…

For a whole host of reasons, Australia needs a potent and numerous submarine force. Geography and potential opponents make the case pretty straight forward. It looks like they are not on a smooth path; As this is written, the head of the French naval construction company Naval Group, Pierre Eric Pommellet, is in Australia meeting federal ministers in an attempt to rescue the contract. Tragically for Australia – and for Monsieur Pommellet – not one of those ministers has the experience or competence to wrangle a successful result. Many informed commentators in France, Australia and elsewhere now expect the much-celebrated deal to be abandoned. If that happens, replacing…