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Once a bad theory is adopted because it makes sense to one cohort (GOFOs who went to a two-week MBA camp) and is encouraged by others (influential civilian companies looking for another income stream), at the expense of what the first cohort should have been focused on but is an unpopular topic (winning wars), it spreads and develops its inertia. Even when one area discovers the theory does not survive contact with reality, other areas carry on because, well, going along is easier than admitting error and changing. When the maintenance CONOPS for the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) came out in the mid-00s with its reliance on civilian contractors and OEMs being responsible for maintenance that, on a normal ship, is done by the ship's company—many of us warned that it would not work. The miasma of arrogance that characterized the Age of Transformation™ would not hear of it, as you would not be able to make the manning CONOPS slide work if the maintenance CONOPS didn’t paper over the gaping holes. The Cult of Efficiency™ was in its ascendancy, while the Church of the Combat Effective™ were driven into basements, meeting in hushed tones. After over a decade and a half of everyone suffering through a series of senior leaders making farcical excuses, a half decade ago, Big Navy started to (officially) accept the reality that it was all vanity. Eventually the truth came out, as in the below from 2021, and a slightly better solution was found—though more work needs to be done. The Navy is beginning to implement contracting approaches for LCS maintenance in order to help mitigate schedule risk, while taking steps to avoid it in the future. GAO found in the 18 LCS maintenance delivery orders it reviewed that the Navy had to contract for more repair work than originally planned, increasing the risk to completing LCS maintenance on schedule. A majority of this unplanned work occurred because the Navy did not fully understand the ship's condition before starting maintenance. The Navy has begun taking steps to systematically collect and analyze maintenance data to determine the causes of unplanned work, which could help it more accurately plan for maintenance. The Navy has also recently begun applying some contracting approaches to more quickly incorporate unplanned work and mitigate the schedule risk, such as (1) setting a price for low-dollar value unplanned work to save negotiation time and (2) procuring some materials directly instead of waiting for contractors to do so. Such measures will be important to control cost and schedule risks as additional LCS enter the fleet in the coming years. Other similar vanities of that era are being corrected. The rebirth of SIMA is another example of positive change, but as mentioned earlier, more work needs to be done. This 'outsource it to the civilian sector—it briefs really well' mentality wasn’t just limited to the LCS program. Make no mistake, this was never about making a more combat effective Navy, no, this was always about feeding the Potomac Flotilla's warped priorities and industry's grasping business models. The Marines are suffering under the same mindlessness: The Marine Corps is facing “significant” challenges keeping some of its most important weapons in working order, because Marines too often must rely on contractors for equipment upkeep, the service’s second-ranking general recently wrote to a Senate panel. Gen. Bradford Gering, the Marine Corps assistant commandant, described for the Armed Services Committee cases involving several high-profile military systems — including parts for communications terminals and for armored vehicles — that Marines sometimes wait months for contractors to fix, when Marines could complete the repair in days or even hours for a fraction of the price if they controlled the data. … Warren and Sen. Tim Sheehy, R-Mont., have championed a so-called right-to-repair provision in the fiscal 2027 NDAA that would give the military services more control over the data they need to maintain their systems more rapidly than they do today and at lower cost. Their provision would expand the military’s access to repair materials, hold accountable companies that falsely assert restrictions and permit the military to contract with companies other than the original system manufacturers to perform repairs in wartime and contingency operations. If “right to repair” rings a bell, it is because a parallel fight is taking place against John Deere—one of the agriculture industry’s “Primes.” This is a bipartisan effort, as it should be. Civilian and uniformed leaders from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on down have supported shifting control over data rights from industry to the government to increase competition, reduce prices and ensure troops can fix their equipment on the battlefield. The department has begun to make some changes along those lines but many lawmakers believe a statutory change is required. Warren and Sheehy wrote Armed Services leaders in May to summarize the armed forces’ support for their measure. However, it has its opponents. Rep. Mike D. Rogers, R-Ala., the House Armed Services Committee chairman, has been sympathetic to the industry’s concerns. Late last year, the defense contractors successfully killed a right-to-repair proposal in the final negotiations over the fiscal 2026 NDAA. The issue is shaping up to be one of the big defense fights looming in the coming months, as lawmakers hope the NDAA can be enacted for the 66th consecutive year. It needs to be fixed, as we cannot fight wars like this. Because the Marine Corps is reliant on contractors to fix certain systems as a result of data restrictions, Marines have to wait too long and pay too much to fix several of their most important pieces of equipment, Gering said. One such system, he said, is the Amphibious Combat Vehicle program, which fields armored vehicles that can operate on both the water and land. Gering cited a panel in the driver’s compartment of the amphibious vehicle where key system controls are located. The panel “costs $3,040.88 to replace and takes approximately eight months for the repair via support from a secondary repairables exchange contract,” he said. “With access to an original part, however, the repair cycle could be reduced to less than one month — a trained Marine could repair this component in approximately four hours.” … Another key system affected are the masts that hold antennas for Mobile User Objective System terminals. These terminals link Marines who are on foot or in vehicles to communications satellites, providing the troops with smartphone-like voice and data connections to command posts that are beyond the line of sight. Marines were able to develop their own replacement mast that can be built for $10 in 10 hours, whereas a replacement mast from the original manufacturer “could cost up to $5,644.37 and take more than seven months to deliver,” Gering said — adding that the Marine Corps’ mast is “more durable than the original version.” This is a good fight…one that we never should have to fight…but a good one. BZ to all making this push. Leave a comment Share This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. View the full article

A Greek Air Force fighter pilot pulled off a landing gear failure Thursday afternoon that could have ended very differently, bringing an F-16 down on its belly at Zakynthos airport after the jet’s wheels refused to extend during a routine training flight. The Hellenic Air Force confirmed the emergency landing occurred around 1:45 p.m. local […]View the full article

Poland’s spending on drones and counter-drone systems has grown 260-fold in under three years, reaching roughly $6.9 billion (26 billion zloty) this year alone, Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk announced at a production line unveiling in Sochaczewa, according to Interia. Tomczyk made the announcement Thursday while touring the new manufacturing facility of Hornet-Polskie Drony, […]View the full article

The U.S. Navy released photos showing divers entering Dry Dock 2 as the attack submarine USS Illinois (SSN-786) prepared to undock at Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard and Intermediate Maintenance Facility on June 24, 2026, marking the completion of a scheduled maintenance period for one of the fleet’s most closely watched Virginia-class boats. Open-source trackers monitoring […]View the full article

The scientists and technicians who build America’s newest nuclear bomb just finished a critical manufacturing step three months ahead of schedule, the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration announced, marking another milestone in what officials describe as one of the fastest nuclear weapons development efforts since the Cold War. NNSA said its Y-12 […]View the full article

MITS Capital, an American-Ukrainian investment group, announced on July 9 that it has invested in Dropla Tech, a Danish-Ukrainian defense technology company whose flagship system detects landmines, improvised explosive devices, and ambush drones in real time, though neither company disclosed the deal size or Dropla Tech’s current valuation. Dropla Tech’s core technology, called Blue Eyes […]View the full article

Türkiye President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced an additional $24 billion in funding for Türkiye’s Steel Dome air and missile defense project during the opening session of the NATO Summit in Ankara, according to Turkish defense outlet Ulusavunma. “We have taken measures to raise the ratio of our defense spending to 3.5 percent by 2030,” Erdoğan […]View the full article

Russian state-aligned outlet Izvestia has confirmed that Russian military units operating on the front have received T-72B3A tanks equipped with an upgraded version of the Arena-M active protection system, and that crews are now undergoing additional training before the vehicles are sent to support assault groups attacking fortified Ukrainian positions. Arena-M belongs to a category […]View the full article

Russian state defense conglomerate Rostec announced the delivery of a new batch of Su-30SM2 Flanker-C multirole fighters and Su-34 Fullback fighter-bombers to the Russian military, according to a statement from the manufacturer, framing the handover as part of an ongoing effort to modernize a combat aircraft fleet that open-source trackers say has absorbed dozens of […]View the full article

The U.S. Air Force jet meant to finally retire a training aircraft older than most of the pilots flying it is running years behind schedule, even as the service quietly started shopping for companies to upgrade the replacement before it has fully entered service. The Air Force posted a notice on July 8 seeking companies […]View the full article

A British firm building uncrewed patrol boats for NATO navies just crossed the billion-dollar valuation mark, with Kraken Technology Group announcing the close of a $175 million Series B funding round on July 9 that values the company at $1 billion. The round, led by Digital Transformation Capital Partners, or DTCP, arrives less than a […]View the full article

The Belgian government announced plans to acquire the Norwegian-built NASAMS air defense system, according to a press release from manufacturer Kongsberg, signing a cooperation agreement with the Netherlands at the NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye, that would bring 10 NASAMS batteries into Belgian service as the centerpiece of the country’s first serious rebuild of its […]View the full article

NATO has handed three American and European tech companies the chance to reshape how the alliance’s 32 member nations talk to each other during a real air war, awarding contracts to Anduril, Palantir, and French firm Athea SAS on July 7 as part of a competition to build the software backbone for the alliance’s next-generation […]View the full article

German engineering firm RENK just locked in more than $308 million in future business keeping one of Europe’s newest tracked infantry vehicles actually moving, extending its transmission supply agreement with Rheinmetall for the KF41 Lynx on July 9. The expanded framework agreement, worth more than €270 million ($308.72 million) including options, covers the supply of […]View the full article

A soldier crewing an Army Bradley Fighting Vehicle spots a target through swirling dust or pitch darkness using a sighting system built decades ago, and the Army just committed nearly $56 million to keep engineers refining that system for years to come. DRS Network & Imaging Systems, a subsidiary of Leonardo DRS based in Melbourne, […]View the full article

Leidos received a contract modification worth roughly $27.2 million on behalf of USSOCOM to buy what the military calls All Up Rounds, meaning fully assembled, ready-to-fire missiles rather than components or prototypes, for the AGM-190A Havoc Spear Small Cruise Missile program, with the work centered in Huntsville, Alabama, and expected to run through February 2029. […]View the full article

The U.S. Naval Sea Systems Command awarded ReconCraft LLC, a boatbuilder based in Anchorage, Alaska, a $24.96 million contract for autonomous low-profile vessels, a category of uncrewed watercraft the military has openly borrowed from the same low-visibility, semi-submersible design smugglers pioneered to avoid radar and visual detection while running narcotics through open water. Autonomous low-profile […]View the full article

Key Topics:Reflection on America’s 250th celebration and patriotic observances, including the significance of the World Cup and tall ships. Analysis of Iran’s naval activities and the prospects of extended punitive campaigns in the Gulf. Insights into Ukraine’s ongoing conflict, new missile capabilities, and the normalization of long-range conventional st… Read more View the full article

To everything there is a season. Over the last 18 months, a lot of national, personal, and political capital was invested by the present administration to try to get Ukraine and Russia to the negotiation table to stop a war that has been going on longer than WWII. This is not just a war between brothers like the U.S. Civil War, where—as fights between brothers are—things become more brutal and go longer than expected, but it is a war where both sides are limited on what they can do to bring the war to any end outside complete victory. For Ukraine, the war is existential. Should Ukraine lose, she would be lucky to become little more than a rump Belarus after Russian forces conduct a victory parade in central Kiev (no one will spell it Kyiv again). For Russia, it is an attempt to regain what was lost. Should they lose, no Ukrainian army will reach Moscow, but odds are Russia will cascade into something between the 2017 bloodletting and the chaos after the fall of the Soviet Union. Though I appreciate applied optimism, if there was a space for compromise, it is gone. If we have played out the peace option, then for Europe and North America and their support for Ukraine, there are two options: Back away and leave Ukraine to her fate, or Decide to decisively support Ukraine’s effort and accept the risk of a Russian systemic crisis in the future The events of the last few days lead me to think we will see the later option…which has been trending that way since early spring. As that news started to trickle in, I was grinning a bit on behalf of our friend Rebeccah Heinrichs. Some of the items in her July 2nd article in National Review, An Opening for Trump to Secure Peace in Ukraine, seem to be fleshing out. That is an excuse to share the article and show you what I’m referring to. Firstly, she opens with a correct diagnosis of the problem. The root of the problem is that Vladimir Putin is ideologically committed to his hostility against the United States and the West. This is why Trump’s strategy hasn’t worked. He has sought to appear impartial and demand that both sides compromise, focusing on territory in the Donbas, as if the war is a violent real estate dispute between feuding personalities. Putin cannot compromise and is not inclined to compromise. Anything but victory is a death sentence for him personally and the entire structure that supports him. He knows it. His grip on power is firm, but brittle. Only Putin can end the war by, at the very least, accepting a cease-fire. Ukraine and NATO could then focus on rebuilding their stocks and defense industrial capacity to deter further Russian aggression, especially as the U.S. urges Europe to help carry more of the burden of defense. Putin cannot accept a cease-fire, in my opinion as outlined earlier. Ukraine and the West will not have the luxury to rebuild on its timeline. We will have continued war, and we will need to expand capacity. This is a lot more than a Westphallian map exercise. There was a small chance it could have been, but time has proven that chance is no longer in play. What is Plan-B? Trump has shown a willingness to adapt when his plans don’t work, and now is the time to shift the strategy. The only way for Trump to help end the war is by applying pain and pressure to Russia and encouraging Ukraine and the rest of NATO to do the same. Here is where Rebeccah’s drafts are seeping into the ether. From today’s WSJ: President Trump said he supported Ukraine striking targets deep inside Russian territory, calling it an escalation that could help end the war. The comments mark his strongest praise yet of Ukraine’s military strategy and deal a significant blow to Russia’s efforts to keep Trump on its side in talks to end the war. In a marked contrast to past meetings between the two leaders, Trump opened his press conference with President Volodymyr Zelensky by offering warm words and fresh promises of military cooperation with Ukraine, providing a major boon for Kyiv and its supporters in Europe. … “It’s an escalation, but it’s also an escalation that could help lead to an end,” Trump said of backing Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russian territory. He spoke during a session with the Ukrainian president at the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, on Wednesday. Back to Rebeccah’s article, she outlines the next logical step. The United States should encourage, not restrict, Ukraine’s bolder operations and should exhort NATO nations to continue supplying Ukraine with weapons, including by purchasing key systems from American companies. Expanded capacity? Lockheed is game: Lockheed Martin welcomes the commitment of the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden to explore a dedicated PAC-3® Missile Maintenance Facility in Europe. The joint government-to-government agreement was signed today during the NATO Summit Defense Industry Forum, part of the 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara. …and it appears that the U.S. is prepared to do even more than that: Trump praised Ukraine’s bravery, signaled he would consider granting Kyiv a license to produce U.S. Patriot missile interceptors and said he would consider traveling to Kyiv at the right time in peace talks. Ukraine has run critically low on Patriot missiles, which have been used to intercept Russian ballistic missiles. The shortage left its capital and other cities exposed during deadly large-scale Russian attacks this summer. The path from licensing rights to standing up production lines for Patriot interceptors could take years, and Trump didn’t offer more specifics on the plan. Will they build them in Ukraine proper or in some other European country? How long until warshots are coming out the factory door? No idea at this point, but coming out of the Ankara Summit everyone should be clear—the West’s support for Ukraine is entering a new phase of unknown magnitude or time. Buckle up. Also…keep reading what Rebeccah is writing. She’s sauntering through the zeitgeist like she owns the place. Leave a comment Share This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. View the full article

A torpedo-tube-launched robot built to secretly plant mines from American submarines just got another $14 million push toward becoming operational, as the U.S. Navy exercises new contract options with General Dynamics Mission Systems to keep developing the system. The Navy Sea Systems Command awarded the Massachusetts-based defense contractor a modification worth roughly $13.97 million on […]View the full article

The U.S. Army awarded Lockheed Martin a $502 million contract to provide ongoing support services for the Modernized Target Acquisition Designation Sight and Pilot Night Vision Sight system, known in Army circles by the shorthand M-TADS/PNVS, the combined sensor and targeting package mounted on every AH-64 Apache helicopter in the U.S. fleet. The M-TADS/PNVS, also […]View the full article

An uncrewed patrol boat just fell out of an airplane at 1,300 feet and splashed down ready to go to work, and the company behind it says nobody has ever pulled that off before. Kraken Technology Group and Capewell announced on July 8 that they completed the world’s first extracted-load airdrop of an uncrewed surface […]View the full article

Every precision strike, every navigation-guided munition, and every soldier’s handheld GPS unit ultimately depends on a network of ground stations most Americans will never see, and the Space Force just handed Lockheed Martin $105 million to keep that invisible backbone working for the next generation of GPS satellites. The contract, awarded July 7, covers modifications […]View the full article

The U.S. Space Force just handed two young rocket companies a shot at billions of dollars in Pentagon launch business, expanding the exclusive club of firms trusted to carry America’s most sensitive satellites into orbit. Impulse Space and Relativity Federal joined a $5.6 billion contract vehicle called National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 1 […]View the full article

Ukraine just secured a German promise to bankroll production of one of its most closely guarded new weapons, a jet-powered strike drone capable of hitting targets deep inside Russian territory, in a deal signed on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Ankara, Türkiye. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced the agreement on X, confirming […]View the full article