CDR Salamander - Ukraine Needs to Open up to Commerce Raiding

[HG S2 (Intel Bot)]

Frankly, this should have started in earnest years ago, but I have a theory.

We’ll get to that in a moment, but here’s the summary of developments since we all fell into a turkey coma.

Ukrainian naval drones hit two oil tankers from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” as they travelled through the Black Sea, Ukrainian officials have said.

Footage verified by the BBC shows waterborne drones speeding through the waves into the vessels, before detonating into a ball of flame, sending black smoke into the air.

The targeted tankers were named by Turkish authorities as the Kairos and Virat, both flagged to the Gambia. Both were hit off the Turkish coast on Friday, with the Virat reportedly struck again on Saturday. No casualties were reported.

The attacks appear to be an escalation by Kyiv as it tries to hit Russia’s oil revenues, which are critical for funding its war in Ukraine.

…

The Kairos was struck in the south-west area of the Black Sea and the Virat in a central area further east. Both are on a list of ships subject to sanctions, according to London Stock Exchange data.

The attack employed Sea Baby drones - a type of naval drone produced by Ukraine’s security services, known as the SBU.

We have seen Ukrainian “Sea Baby” drones successfully used for years in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

Here is a video about them from two years ago when they were used to attack the Crimean bridge to the mainland.

Back about six weeks ago, Reuters gave us some OSINT I&W that we may see some expanded use.

Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) has unveiled the latest version of its “sea baby” naval drone that it says can operate at distances of over 1,500 km and carry a payload of up to 2,000 kg, approximately double the previous limit.

The improvements mark the latest development in unmanned weapons systems that play an increasingly important role in the war with Russia, as both sides race to stay ahead in drone warfare on land, in the air and at sea.

That brings us to this weekend.

Let’s head over to the chart room via the exceptionally good video from our friend, Sal Mercogliano.

That distance is only ~250 nautical miles to 300 nautical miles from Odessa (roughly 450 to 550 kilometers). The Black Sea is not that big and well within range of the updated Sea Baby.

What ships are in Russia’s “Shadow Fleet” are fairly well known in open source, and in the SCIF I am sure there is much more detailed information. This fleet is what feeds the Russian war machine…and yet, it is relatively untouched. No one is doing more than tut-tut’n about them.

Why?

You want a good story—well, that is a good story, “Why?”

Not the Russian Shadow Fleet’s operations—but rather why Ukraine has allowed it and other Russian merchant ships to exist at peace.

The Ukrainian people are under daily assault from the air by Russia, and the Ukrainians are doing what they can to bring the war home to Russia…but why ignoring the opportunity on the high seas?

As we are coming up on the 4th anniversary of the war, why has Ukraine not hit the high seas for what was commonly one of the first things nations do at war—go after their enemy’s maritime trade?

What is holding them back?

Ukraine has a great maritime tradition, and it does not suffer from a lack of trained mariners. Prior to the war, Ukraine had 76,442 (4%) mariners (47,058 were officers and 29,383 ratings). That was 4% of the global total. For thousands of years, “mariners” have been turned into fighting Sailors. This is not hard.

There is also a long history of nations without substantial blue water navies to create a threat and sow chaos on the high seas using what in the modern context are called, “Auxiliary Cruisers.”

Just look at two American examples. The original Bonhomme Richard was a merchant ship converted into a 42-gun frigate. The “Last Flag Down”—the Confederate States Ship Shenandoah is another one—and one closer to what I’m thinking about.

The world is not short of merchant ships to be purchased for a farthing. Ukrainian mariners roaming the high seas tracking down the Russian shadow fleet with a cargo hold of drones, a VBSS team or two, and a few divers with limpet mines…and finding Russian flagged ships at the same time…would make the entire globe a danger for the Russians…as it should be.

Going the legitimate route as above is one option (and the one I recommend), but there is the slightly less legitimate route to get to the same end: privateers. We know what is or is not part of the shadow fleet. Put a price tag on them.

Neither the United States nor Ukraine are signatories of The Paris Declaration Respecting Maritime Law of 16 April 1856 (ironically brought into being after The Crimean War). The only thing stopping either from going this route is will.

Again, Ukraine has the mariners. It has the existential war. It has targets. Who is holding the Ukrainians back? There’s your story, and here is the theory I promised earlier that I would get back to.

There is a LOT of money—from insurance rates to outright arbitrage on black market Russian oil, that will encourage the Ukrainians to not take the war to sea.

There is no shortage of people/companies/institutions/nations who will make it clear that they will not let anything get in the way of money and weapons heading into Ukraine for them to fight the Russians, as long as they also have the ability to make money by doing business with the Russians. As an extra bonus, they would like lower insurance rates on their shipping by the open seas not being turned into a war zone.

Bollocks to that. There is an existential war going on.

Why not expand on what the Ukrainians are doing in the Black Sea to the open ocean? Make the Russians invest the money, effort, and time to chase your enterprising Auxiliary Cruisers and Privateers on the high seas. The rest of the nations of the world have had plenty of time to find other ways to get their hydrocarbons.

The Ukrainians have the ability to take the fight to sea. Yes, they will have to engage in some skullduggery to get the ships, arm them up, and get their people on them—but if the Confederate Navy could do it in the middle of the 19th century, no reason the Ukrainians can’t. If the Israelis can do what they did in Cherbourg, the Ukrainians can do what they need to do.

As a side note, the Panama-flagged, Turkish owned tanker Mersin is experiencing a crisis off Senegal’s coast. She had Russian cargo, there is no firm evidence that she was attacked, but rumors go both ways, and reports this AM mention explosions on the 27th. It may just be mechanical failure, however…it does give you a little insight as to the problems the Russians—and the people buying oil from them—would have if off the coast of Africa, South America, and the expanses of the Pacific and Indian Oceans…they just started taking on water?

Nightly, Ukrainian apartment blocks are unsafe—why should Russian commerce be safe?

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