File - IOPG - Hot Fishes in Hot Waters, February 2019. Historical Scenario.

broncepulido · April 13, 2024

Hot Fishes in Hot Waters, February 2019. Historical Scenario.

A Harpoon Commander's Edition scenario for EC2003 IOPG Battleset and the HCDB2-170308 new standard 1980-2025 Platform Database. This scenario is designed with advanced Scenario Editor and to be run with HCE 2015.008+ or later.

This scenario is designed to be played from the Blue/Indian side or from the Red/Pakistani side. You should play a few times first the Blue side to avoid spoilers, and only later play the Red side.

Image: INS Chakra (II) S72 (ex Russian Pacific Fleet K-152 Nerpa), a Project 971I/Akula-class nuclear attack submarine, leased from Russia for India, and employed on Indian waters from 29 March 2012 to 5 June 2021, when returned to Russia in Vladivostok. Official Indian Armed Forces photo 31 March 2012 in fair use, and took from Wikipedia Commons.

In the immediate aftermath of the 14 February 2019 Pulwama terrorist attack, on the continuous Indian-Pakistani conflict for Jammu and Kashmir, succeeded by the Indian retaliation by the 26 February 2019 confuse Balakot airstrike, a intermediate submarine action is usually beleaguered.

Soon after the Pulwama terror attack, on February 19 India pulled out its Navy from the exercise TROPEX 19 and deployed a major part of its fleet with 60 vessels to March 10, from the Andaman and Nicobar islands to close to Pakistani territorial waters, apparently hunting for the Pakistani Agosta 90B-class submarine Saad, improved with an AIP system.

Including in the exercise was the aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya and also the then two only Indian nuclear submarines, the SSN Chakra and the SSBN Arihant, the last one concluding her first operational deterrent patrol few months before in November 2018.

Both Indian and Pakistani navies must prevail over the other, to show his resolution to control the Arabian Sea and the access to the main Pakistani ports, and to prevent the other side to overcome. Only eluding that unbalanced situation, probably directing towards a nuclear escalade, a major conflict could be avoided.

At last on 4 March 2019 the Indian Scorpene-class submarine Kalvari was detected by a Pakistani P-3C Orion some 86 nm of Gwadar, well into the Pakistani Exclusive Economic Zone.

But cold heads prevailed and no more shots were fired.

This scenario speculates on the situation going hot between the both sides submarine and ASW elements. Even a submarine lost by a hostile action could be covered as a lamentable accident to avoid a further escalade.

The sea is perhaps too much wide and open and both side forces scarce, but after an encounter the actions can be short and destructive.

Enrique Mas, April 12, 2024.

Submitter

broncepulido
Submitted

04/14/2024
Category

IOPG

broncepulido · April 13, 2024

Notes on some platforms:

- Pakistani P-3C are of unknown availability, systems and weapons, perhaps Mk46 Mod5 ASW torpedoes, rarely Swedish Tp43 or the outdated Italian A.244 (As per Jane's 2015-2016), but with state of art AGM-84L Harpoon II. In consequence to represent it as with updated ASW systems are employed USN P-3C-III Orion 86. Six aircrafts available in 2019.

- Very probably only one Pakistani ATR-72 present at the scenario date, and yet without ASW capabilities. It is not represented.

- The few (or speculative, as per SIPRI are HQ-9/P delivered 2021) Pakistani HQ-22 SAMs (per Military Balance, delivered 2023) are represented by more or less equivalent HQ-15, showing the Pakistani capability to perturb the use of Indian ASW aircraft near its coast, and at the same time preventing a escalade employing fighter to shoot down the Indian ASW aircrafts. Its placements are purely hypothetical. But forget that, later I reckon the scenario is settled before any very long range SAM delivery, in 2019 Pakistan had only HQ-16.

- The Indian Scorpene-class submarines are equipped with previously owned German SUT torpedoes, because the failed by military-political corruption acquisition process of more modern torpedoes.