File - MEDC - Black Sea Red Sharks, November 2022. Hypothetical Historical Scenario.

[broncepulido]

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Black Sea Red Sharks, November 2022. Hypothetical Historical Scenario.

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Black Sea Red Sharks, November 2022. Hypothetical Historical Scenario.

A Harpoon Commander's Edition scenario for EC2003 Battle for the Mediterranean Battleset and the HCDB2-170308 new standard 1980-2025 Platform Database. This scenario is designed with advanced Scenario Editor and to be run with HCE 2015.008+ or later.

This scenario is designed to be played from the Blue/NATO-Ukrainian side or from the Red/Russian side. You should play a few times first the Blue side to avoid spoilers, and only later play the Red side.

Image: Grain bulk carriers near Istanbul, November 2022. Author's personal photo.

After the Transnitria War of 1990-1992, the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia and the first Russian invasion of Ukraine and its Crimea Peninsula and Donbas from 2014 the World was beginning the so-called Second Cold War or the first stages of WWIII. Against all sensible warnings and erroneous appeasement politics the President of Russia Vladimir Putin (ex-KGB lieutenant colonel) was showing clearly his plan to recover the Russian Empire and later Soviet territories for reinstitute the greatness of his Russia, and to guarantee his passage on the History as saviour of the Rodina ... or more probably as a sad and sadistic clown.
At last the Russian campaign for the invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, 2022, and the surprisingly bad performance of the Russian forces, forecasting a long war, and the Western steadfast support of Ukraine surprised the world.
The two most prominent facts at strategic level on the naval side were the closure of the Bosporus strait by Turkey on February 28, and the Russian naval blockade of the Ukrainian ports from the war start, preventing the export of the very need on other world points of the Ukrainian grains.
Most of the Ukrainian navy was seized, blockaded or scuttled in port the first days of the Russian invasion.
But the more important naval actions at tactical, propaganda and boosting of the Ukrainian morale were the destruction or damage of some Russian ships, the naval use of Baryaktar TB2 drones and many retaliatory air strikes on the occupied Snake Island. And of course as the main and most outstanding action the sinking on April 14 of the guided missile cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, probably by the action of shore launched Ukrainian indigenous R-360 Neptune anti-ship missiles, based in ISTAR information supplied by NATO from day one of the invasion, and also prior to it.
After came the yet unresolved and only partly successful bombing of the Kerch Bridge on October 8, 2022, and as other naval highpoint the four places Nordstream 1 and 2 gas pipelines sabotage on September 26, 2022. The four blasts took place just outside the Danish territorial waters, east the Island of Bornholm, an interesting touristic resort with many medieval and pseudoesoteric points of interest.
And later came the Ukrainian simultaneous attacks with UAVs (Diversion movement?) and USVs against the Russian Navy at Sevastopol, damaging the frigate Admiral Makarov and the minesweeper Ivan Golubets, preventing resting and freedom of movements to the Russian naval assets.
As absurd consequence Putin ridiculously suspended the 27 July 2022 UN created Black Sea Grain Initiative traffic with security excuses from October 29 to November 2, railing again the food flux to need countries.
This partly hypothetical scenario is based on Putin trying to stop the grain traffic in angry ways, with the bulk carrying ships escorted mainly by Turkish naval elements (The only capable navy in the Black Sea), with very limited air support in both sides to prevent escalades (Just as in others actions of the campaign).

Enrique Mas, November 12, 2022.

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• Submitter
  broncepulido
• Submitted
  11/13/2022
• Category
  MEDC

 

[broncepulido]

Some sources:

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-will-a-black-sea-grain-corridor-solve-the-export-crisis/a-62067106

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/oct/31/ukraine-ships-out-record-tonnage-grain-russia-withdrawal-scheme

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bulk_carrier

https://news.usni.org/2022/11/07/russian-navy-pulls-warships-from-black-sea-into-port-after-attacks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-29/russia-halting-involvement-in-ukraine-grain-safe-transit-deal

https://www.politico.eu/article/un-turkey-ukraine-to-pause-black-sea-shipments-as-russia-warns-about-security/

https://time.news/russia-resumes-participation-in-ukrainian-grain-export-deal/

https://www.un.org/en/black-sea-grain-initiative

https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/09/1126811

http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones.html

https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/may/11732-russian-navy-s-oldest-submarine-alrosa-to-re-enter-service.html

[broncepulido]

Great article but apparently humble as usual in Strategy Page.

For me this is the scenario related highpoint:

" On October 28th, Ukraine used a combined force of explosives-carrying UAVs and ASVs (autonomous surface vessel) bomb boats against three Russian frigates and several other ships docked at the Sevastopol naval base in Crimea. The night attack was detected and machine-guns and autocannon were seen firing on the attackers. One of the frigates and an amphibious ship were hit by the ASVs and damaged. This attack upset the Russians who responded by launching more attacks on Ukrainian civilians and ending its cooperation in allowing Ukraine to export grain that was needed in many Middle Eastern nations that get a lot of their imported food from Ukraine. The additional Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities led to higher than usual losses for the cruise missiles employed. Turkey had negotiated the grain export deal and responded to the Russian action by putting Turkish flags on the grain ships. Turkey is a member of NATO and an attack on the reflagged grain ships would be an attack on a NATO nation that would mean all NATO nations would be at war with Russia. This led Russia to quietly reinstate its cooperation with the grain export arrangement".

 

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htweap/articles/20221114.aspx