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Black Death Sea, 13-14 April 2022. Hypothetical Historical Scenario.


Black Death Sea, 13-14 April 2022. Hypothetical Historical Scenario.

A Harpoon Commander's Edition scenario for EC2003 Battle for the Mediterranean Battleset and the HCDB2-170308 new standard 1980-2025 Platform Database. This scenario is designed with advanced Scenario Editor and to be run with HCE 2015.008+ or later.

This scenario is designed to be played from the Blue/NATO-Ukrainian side or from the Red/Russian side. You should play a few times first the Blue side to avoid spoilers, and only later play the Red side.

Image: Guided missile cruiser Moskva (Ex-Slava), lead ship of her class (Project 1164 Atlant), only partially modernized and flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to her sinking on April 14, 2022. The bigger military unit sunk in combat after WWII. Photo by George Chernilevsky on July 22, 2009, ceded to public domain by the author and in took from Wikipedia.

 

After the Transnitria War of 1990-1992, the 2008 Russian invasion of Georgia and the first Russian invasion of Ukraine and its Crimea Peninsula and Donbas from 2014 the World was beginning the so-called Second Cold War or the first stages of WWIII. Against all sensible warnings and erroneous appeasement politics the President of Russia Vladimir Putin (ex-KGB lieutenant colonel) was showing clearly his plan to recover the Russian Empire and later Soviet territories for reinstitute the greatness of his Russia, and to guarantee his passage on the History as saviour of the Rodina ... or more probably as a sad and sadistic clown.

At last the Russian campaign for the invasion of Ukraine started on February 24, 2022, and the surprisingly bad performance of the Russian forces, forecasting a long war, and the Western steadfast support of Ukraine surprised the world.

The two most prominent facts at strategic level on the naval side were the closure of the Bosporus strait by Turkey on February 28, and the Russian naval blockade of the Ukrainian ports from the war start, preventing the export of the very need on other world points of the Ukrainian grains.

Most of the Ukrainian navy was seized, blockaded or scuttled in port the first days of the Russian invasion.

But the more important naval actions at tactical, propaganda and boosting of the Ukrainian morale were the destruction or damage of some Russian ships, the naval use of Baryaktar TB2 drones and many retaliatory air strikes on the occupied Snake Island. And of course as the main and most outstanding action the sinking on April 14 of the guided missile cruiser Moskva, flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, probably by the action of shore launched Ukrainian indigenous R-360 Neptune anti-ship missiles, based in ISTAR information supplied by NATO from day one of the invasion, and also prior to it.

This partly hypothetical scenario is based in that last naval action, and in alternative modes of its resolution.

 

Enrique Mas, May 24, 2022.


 

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Some sources:

https://www.theshipyard2.co.uk/navalbreakdowns

https://turkishnavy.net/

https://bosphorusobserver.com/

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/two-british-nuclear-submarines-decommissioned-in-one-day/

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2022/02/25/what-makes-the-black-sea-so-strategically-important/

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/03/russian-navy-landing-ships-seen-approaching-ukrainian-coast-near-odessa/

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/loss-of-russian-cruiser-moskva-what-we-know-so-far/

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/russian-navys-5-significant-losses-in-the-ukraine-war-so-far/

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/u-s-may-boost-ukraines-defense-with-harpoon-missiles/

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/05/how-the-russian-navy-is-losing-dominance-the-curse-of-snake-island/

https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/may/11732-russian-navy-s-oldest-submarine-alrosa-to-re-enter-service.html

https://www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/may/11739-russian-black-sea-fleet-oldest-sub-b871-alrosa-to-start-sea-trials-soon.html

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-surveillance-aircraft-monitors-russian-warships/

THAAD deployed in Deveselu from May 2019 as interim measure during Aegis Ashore update (and probably SM-3 Blk IIa from 2021, and expanded by satellite photos from 3x8 to 4x8 VLS)

https://www.cnic.navy.mil/regions/cnreurafcent/installations/nsf_deveselu.html

https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-shows-off-missile-base-in-romania-calling-it-purely-defensive-/30291193.html

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49635.htm

https://ro.usembassy.gov/a-phased-adaptive-approach-for-missile-defense-in-europe/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QDRrqgX-4Oc

https://ac.nato.int/archive/2022/france-deploys-mamba-missile-defence-system

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-Soviet_conflicts

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Hi Enrique,

is that already a running version? Orders and, I think, the relevant units are missing? As soon as You have a testbale version up, I´ll play it through. 

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Yes, it is a running version. I keep the vide Ukrainians and Russian bases only as geographical hits, and perhaps for ulterior developments (One of the scenario alibis is NATO ISTAR aircrafts over the Black Sea are imperturbed, as in real world, by Russian fighters to avoid an escalade and obviously because the Russian fighters undoubtedly shall be shoot down at 100% by NATO fighters with AWACS cover).

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14 minutes ago, broncepulido said:

Yes, it is a running version. I keep the vide Ukrainians and Russian bases only as geographical hits, and perhaps for ulterior developments (One of the scenario alibis is NATO ISTAR aircrafts over the Black Sea are imperturbed, as in real world, by Russian fighters to avoid an escalade and obviously because the Russian fighters undoubtedly shall be shoot down at 100% by NATO fighters with AWACS cover).

But there are no orders? How to play it? 

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2 hours ago, broncepulido said:

Uploaded Blue and Red orders files, previouly not uploaded because pulsation error (I uploaded the .sco file and not the near and correct zip file).

Thanks JSF!

You´re welcome.

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Looks interesting. One of the two scenarios I´m currentyl working on has some parallels to this one, at least regarding the strategic idea.  

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