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The situation in Ukraine


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If any scenario creator is looking to put together scenarios depicting the evolving situation in Ukraine, I can offer the following information to assist:

Spotted yesterday morning off Finnmark by a Norwegian P-3C Orion:

Project 1164 (NATO Slava) class missile cruiser Marshal Ustinov, Project 1155 (NATO Udaloy) class destroyer Admiral Kulakov, Project 22350 (NATO Admiral Gorshkov) class frigate Admiral Kasatonov, a Project REF-675 (NATO Kaliningradneft) class tanker Vyazma and Project 712 (NATO Sliva) class rescue tug SB-406.

Already in the Mediterranean, Project 864 (NATO Vishnya) intel collector Vasiliy Tatischev.

Enroute to the Med, having passed through the English Channel:

Landing ships Project 775 (NATO Ropucha II) Minsk and Kaliningrad, the Project 775 (NATO Ropucha III) Korolev, the Project 775 (NATO Ropucha I) Olenegorskiy Gornyak, Project 775 (NATO Ropucha II) Georgiy Pobedonosets, and the Project 11711 (NATO Ivan Gren) class landing ship Pyotr Morgunov.

Departed naval base at Baltiysk in the Baltic Sea:

Project 20380 (NATO Steregushchy) class missile corvettes Stoykiy and Soobrazitelny.

In the Arabian Sea but apparently enroute to the Mediterranean:

Project 1164 (NATO Slava) class missile cruiser Varyag, Project 1155 (NATO Udaloy) class destroyer Admiral Tributs and Project 1559 (NATO Boris Chilikin) class fleet oiler Boris Butoma.

In the Black Sea:

Over 20 Russian Black Sea Fleet’s warships deploy to sea for drills (TASS)

These include the following:

Minesweepers Project 266M (NATO Natya) Ivan Golubets, Project 12700 (NATO Alexandrit) Ivan Antonov and Project 266ME (NATO Natya) Valentin Pikul

Project 1124M (NATO Grisha V) ASW corvettes Suzdalets and Yeysk (or Eysk?)

Two other unidentified ASW corvettes?

Frigates Project 11356 (NATO Grigorovich/Krivak IV) class Admiral Essen and Project 1135 (NATO Krivak) class Ladny

Missile corvettes Project 21631 class Grayvoron and Ingushetia, and Project 12411 (NATO Tarantul) class Naberezhnye Chelny.

Aviation OOB information can be found here:

How The Russian And Ukrainian Air Forces Stack Up Against Each Other (The War Zone)

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The Russian phibgru made a brief stop at Tartus, Syria and is now reportedly underway again.

Meanwhile, the Ustinov group entered the Med through Gibraltar yesterday and the Varyag group has also entered the Med via Suez.

There are now two Slavas in the Med, something which I think has not happened in a long time (if ever.)

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 4 weeks later...

Its now been a month since the war in Ukraine began, and although I am sure many of you have been watching closely, there hasn't been much chatter about it here.

Some of the Twitter feeds that I have been following, and which you might also find useful:

H.I. Sutton

Modern War Institute

ISW (Institute for the Study of War)

Calibre Obscura

Russian Defense Policy

Christo Grozev, Eliot Higgins and Bellingcat

ELINT News

Rob Lee

Jomini of the West

Intel Crab

Ukraine Weapons Tracker

Michael Kofman

OSINTtechnical

MilitaryLand.net

Not an exhaustive list but lots of useful material here.

 

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  • 3 weeks later...
3 hours ago, Silent Hunter UK said:

Ukrainians are claiming to have hit Moskva with two cruise missiles and set it on fire.

Reuters is reporting the Russians have admitted serious damage and a complete evacuation of the crew due to an ammunition explosion and fire. Ukraine claims hits from two Neptun coastal defence antiship missiles. This is big.

 

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