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File Name: The Krasnodar Incident, late April 2016. Historical Scenario/Alternate History Scenario.

File Submitter: broncepulido

File Submitted: 01 May 2016

File Category: GIUK



The Krasnodar Incident, late April 2016. Historical Scenario/Alternate History Scenario.

A Harpoon Commander's Edition introductory scenario for the EC2003 Battle for the GIUK GAP Battleset and the HCDB-150928 1980-2015 era Platform Database. This scenario is designed with advanced Scenario Editor and to be run with HCE 2015.008+ or later.

Image: The new diesel-electric submarine B-265 Krasnodar with the Russian Navy Saint Andrew's Cross flag raised on her commisioning day 5 November 2105 on the eve of Submariner Day, near Saint Petersburg, and before to be transferred to the Black Sea Fleet. Photo credit Mil.ru, Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, took from Wikipedia Commons.

This scenario is designed to be played from the Blue/Polish side or from the Red/Russian side. To avoid spoilers you should play a few times first the Blue side, and only later play the Red side.

The scenario is based in current historical events, mainly the Russian media propaganda stunt about a hypothetical subsurface collision between the just commissioned Russian conventional submarine Krasnodar and the Polish submarine Orzel in the Baltic Sea, in a time period when Orzel has not quitted the Gulf of Gdansk waters. This scenario depicts a derivative and open-fire limited submarine war, but is very improbable the political motivation in either side capable to generate an open and all-out war.
Is basically an introductory scenario, inspired by the (continuous) current events.
After the full of naval, military and security incidents year of 2014 the World was beginning the so-called Second Cold War. Mostly as result of President of Russia Vladimir Putin (ex-KGB lieutenant colonel) actions, provoking in succession the Crimea, Ukraine, Donetsk, Baltic States, October 2014 Swedish submarine incursion, G-20 Brisbane meeting naval crisis, November 2014 Faslane submarine incident, frigate Yaroslav Mudryy February "Channel Dash", April 2015 Finnish submarine incursion (for many observers causing the pre-mobilization of Finland reserve forces), Russian intervention in Syria from 30 September 2015, violation by Russian military helicopters of the Finnish and Georgian borders on 10 December 2015, March 2016 detection by the French of a Russian submarine near Bay of Biscay, violation by Russian military helicopters of the Polish border on 18 April 2016, and with constant and multiple overflies with military warplanes entangled in potential incidents with commercial and military flights in Europe. That without counting in other unrelated naval incidents, just as the Iranian seizure of the Maersk Tigris in 28 April 2015 (and neither counting in landlocked actions, as the ISIS operations in Middle East).
And all those incidents without counting more towards Far East with China as a less perceived and growing problem, and his own generated incidents. China was building structures with military capabilities, including from 2012 more relevant structures, as the 3000+ meters long (Very Large Airport in Harpoon parameters) runway in Fiery Cross Reef (now finished, at March 2016), and more important, building artificial reefs and islands above previous simple shoals for claiming territory. At last in an undetermined date late April 2015 China claims as territorial waters the 12 nautical miles circling his "new" islands.
As the US official doctrine is Freedom of Navigation (FON) worldwide on international waters (same in Baltic and Black Seas), and as in this case with fears about a decision not to send naval vessels into the zone would inadvertently help the Chinese build their own case for sovereignty in the area, some air and surface elements of US Navy begin to orbit near the Chinese claims, but not crossing the 12 nm line.
Between the first incidents were a VP-45 Pelicans' P-8A Poseidon in surveillance mission carrying a CNN TV team inside, warned by the Chinese to no flight 12 nm near of Fiery Cross Reef on 20 May 2015, and the trailing for some hours of the USS Fort Worth (LCS-3) by the Chinese frigate Yuncheng (571) on 11 May 2015. Late, from 26 October 2015, USS Lassen (DDG-82) implement the Freedom of Navigation (FON) near the Chinese occupied Subi and Mischief Reefs in the Spratlys, and a clash of destroyers was possible, but avoided with the humble and shy behaviour of the US side, transiting without radars illuminating or the helicopter flying, the 1 to 8 March 2016 sailing of the USS John C. Stennis Carrier Strike Group on the contested area, and the sailing of the cruiser USS Chancellorsville between Scarborough Shoal and Mischief Reef on late March 2016, when was persistently trailed by Chinese frigate Yueyang (575) and the action was limited to an exchange of weather pleasantries.
In this Alternate History case, the new Polish nationalist leaders (incumbents from August and November 2015) decides the Russian subsurface navigation of Gulf of Gdansk, near the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad (containing the old Prussian cities of Konigsberg and Pillau), can't be tolerated, and will be opposed by any means necessary.

Enrique Mas, 1 May 2016.



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  • 2 months later...

Very probably this submarine incident actually happened but colliding with a Polish patrol ship, and was the ultimate cause of this massive leadership cull in Russia's Baltic Fleet, as stated in the article:


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  • 8 months later...

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