File - GIUK - BALTOPS 2015 going hot, 17-18 June 2015. Alternate History Scenario.

[broncepulido]

 

File Name: BALTOPS 2015 going hot, 17-18 June 2015. Alternate History Scenario.

File Submitter: broncepulido

File Submitted: 04 Jul 2015

File Category: GIUK

 

 

BALTOPS 2015 going hot, 17-18 June 2015. Alternate History Scenario.

A Harpoon Commander's Edition scenario for the EC2003 Battle for GIUK Gap Battleset and the HCDB-150621 1980-2015 era Platform Database.

Image: HMS Ocean in BALTOPS 2015, near the landing target of Ustka, Poland. Photo by 1st Lt. Sarah E. Burns, USMC, a US servicewoman in duty, and as consequence in public domain. Taked from Wikipedia Commons.

This scenario is designed to be played from the Blue/NATO and partners side or from the Red/Russia side. You should play a few times first the Blue/NATO and Partners side to avoid spoilers, and only later play the Red/Russia side.

After the naval and security incidents full year of 2014 and the not less eventful first five months of 2015 and with the World beginning the so-called Second Cold War when President of Russia Vladimir Putin (ex-KGB lieutenant colonel) provoked in succession the Crimea, Ukraine, Donetsk, Baltic States, October 2014 Swedish submarine incursion, G-20 Brisbane meeting naval crisis, November 2014 Faslane submarine incident, frigate Yaroslav Mudryy February "Channel Dash", April 2015 Finnish submarine incursion (for many observers causing the pre-mobilization of Finland reserve forces), and constant and multiple overflies with military warplanes entangled in potential incidents with commercial flights (even employing transport types because the shortage of true military types in the Russian forces). That without counting other unrelated naval incidents, just as the Iranian seizure of the Maersk Tigris in 28 April 2015 (and neither counting very prominent landlocked actions, as the counter-DAESH operations in Middl
e East).
When the big anti-submarine exercise Dynamic Mongoose did begin in 4 May 2015 was interpreted by many journalists as an answer to the latest Russian actions and menacing postures, but it was actually a yearly exercise. But in the current world situation was legit to think otherwise, more with the intervention in the exercise of Swedish Navy elements, probably as consequence of the Russian-attributed Swedish submarine incident of October 2014, as Sweden is not a NATO member, but did participate as partner.
Further, when the also yearly BALTOPS 2015 multipurpose and landing exercise did begin from 5 to 20 June 2015 with theoretically neutral Swedish and Finnish partner participation, the Russian State-owned media (Russia Today, Sputnik, Russia Beyond the Headlines and others) and associated Western media did begin a campaign to delegitimize the NATO exercises (BALTOPS 2015 was a complex exercise simultaneous to others as Saber Strike 2015 and Noble Jump 2015), and to justify any Russian military action.
At last, in this alternate history path, on 17 June 2015 at BALTOPS 2015 peak, the NATO and partners show of force did go erroneously a few nautical miles East, and the ships for the programmed landing in the small Polish town of Ustka (BNp, a few days previously was another training landing in Sweden, near Ravlunda, BOp) are presented just off the coastline of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad between Lithuania and Poland (Formerly Konigsberg in East Prussia. What better excuse to request a land bridge from the Russian side, nobody remember the very near Danzig Corridor and the 1939 German Ultimatum to Poland?), and the situation goes to the boiling point very fast.
To keep his security promises to the Russian people Putin is forced to an open war and destroy the landing forces near Kaliningrad, employing all the forces in the Baltic theatre, and another very few deployed from others.
The state of readiness of the NATO forces is low, the first two days of the open conflict can count only with the forces at disposition of the current exercises, but with the complete Polish Air Force order of battle, in high state of readiness because the international situation (The Finnish Air Force will be limited to protect this homeland).
Will be vital for both sides to prevail these two first days of war, for Russia as propaganda and to show his force, for NATO and partners for resist and mobilize all the Western forces the next days, almost guaranteeing the victory against Putin's Russia.

Enrique Mas, July 4 2015.

 

 

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[broncepulido]

Some sources:

http://beforeitsnews.com/military/2015/06/u-s-air-force-takes-to-the-skies-for-baltops-2015-2472166.html

http://cne-cna-c6f.dodlive.mil/baltops-2015-daily-report/

http://www.janes.com/article/51335/usaf-deploys-combat-aircraft-to-eastern-europe-and-the-baltics

http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/news-and-latest-activity/news/2015/june/08/150609-baltops-in-poland

http://turkishnavy.net/2015/06/06/baltops-2015-naval-components/

http://theaviationist.com/2015/06/13/infographic-allied-shield-series-of-ex/

http://theaviationist.com/2015/06/14/photos-show-b-52s-loaded-with-mines-for-simulated-massive-naval-mine-drop-outside-sweden/

[broncepulido]

Modification 4 July 2015: added neutral subsurface targets.

[Palex80]

Short After Action Report (Warning spoilers):

 

This is an interesting scenario and quite challenging, because your forces are quite dispersed in the beginning.

You need to assemble your air forces fast, if you want to survive this one.

 

I started by transferring all available air assets to bases in Poland and put up some CAPs over the Baltic countries. Projecting air power far into the Baltic Sea was difficult, mostly because of effective SAMs on the Russian sides. There is a huge amount of SAMs around Russian bases. I launched my B2s against the Kola airbases and changed the loadout of the B52s to ALCMs. A couple of E3s provided valuable AEW services.

 

The Russians came in pretty dumb with air strikes going for the land units and SAMs, largely ignoring the air bases, which allowed me to massacre their forces. Beware that you Mig29s are little match for the enemy fighters, they will die rather fast.

Your Su22s and helicopters are mostly useless against land targets due to the heavy SAM coverade, I used the Su22s against the small flotillas of Russian ships in the Baltic, since they lacked proper SAM coverage there.

 

Repeated B2-/B52-strikes were effective against the Russian bases, although the large number of SAMs there managed to shoot down tons of missiles unfortunately.

I had quite a buch of F16s, which I equipped with JASSMs and JSOWs, which worked out fine against the closer Russian bases and SAM installations. My navy took a little pounding by Russian aircraft, mostly the German MCM vessels seemed helpless against the Russians.

 

Unfortunately I was presented with a sad result, since the enemy managed to meet his minimum victory conditions first, probably because I lost quite a large number of aircraft (mostly obsolete Su22s) to SAMs.

 

Alltogether an interesting scenario, the geography of the battlefield with your forces being quite dispersed in the beginning made it interesting. Maybe decluttering it from all the (useless) helicopters and small transport aircraft would enhance it.

[broncepulido]

Modification July 10, 2015:

 

- 790 IAP (based at Borisovsky Khotilovo (ZKa), Russia) full equipped with 24xMiG-31BM (2008+) (previously one of the two squadros was equipped with older MiG-31/B/BS (1982+)), as indicated in an Alexander Mladenov article in July 2015 issue of Air International. Replacement of older MiG-31/B/BS in 790 IAP was completed in December 2014.

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A5%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE_(%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B0)

 

For the record the other, also historical correct, units flying MiG-31BM in this scenario are:

 

- 98 OSAP (Composite Air Regiment), based at Monchegorsk (ZMa), with 14xMiG-31BM.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monchegorsk_(air_base)

 

- Escadrille/Flight (in Russian literally эскадрилья, same phonetics as "Escadrille") of the 3958th Air Base at Savastleyka/Murom, Russia, with 12xMiG-31BM (this odd unit is not reflected in the Mladenov article).

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B9%D0%BA%D0%B0_(%D0%B0%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%B0%D0%B1%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B0)

 

Sources:

Air International July 2015, "The Foxhound's New Tricks", by Alexander Mladenov.

Wikipedia Russian edition MiG-31 entry (for current MiG-31 units):

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%9C%D0%B8%D0%93-31

[broncepulido]

Unfortunately I was presented with a sad result, since the enemy managed to meet his minimum victory conditions first, probably because I lost quite a large number of aircraft (mostly obsolete Su22s) to SAMs.

Yeah Palex80, I think that can be an outcome, but I'm not sure if modify or not the victory conditions on this sense.

 

About the presence of minor and useless Polish air units (helicopters, light transports), one of my aims was to reflect a few the fog of war in the human player side, forcing he to discriminate useless units from the others, and also to show the complete Polish Air Force OOB.

 

This latest extreme was almost a personal compromise, because after my public speech late May 2015 (reflected in this PowerPoint http://harpgamer.com/harpforum/index.php?/topic/24844-how-to-put-harpoon-and-harpgamer-in-a-little-academic-presentation/) a blonde officer of the Polish embassy in Madrid invited me to dinner, and we were all the afternoon debating the Polish fears to Russian, the inconscience of many Western countries (of course including Spain) in front of the Russian menace, and a partly feeling of loneliness and abandon of Poland and the Baltic States by NATO and EU in face of Russia (point a little improved with BALTOPS 2015 and other exercises). In consequence of that, the scenario is in part a personal tribute to Poland and his defence posture.

[broncepulido]

Update 15 August 2016:

These Kaliningrad-based air elements were not included in the original scenario:

Su-27P fighters of the 689 Guards Interceptor Aviation Regimen (Gv IAP), Russian Naval Aviation, and the attack and assault helicopters of the 288 Independent Helicopter Squadron, all based at Chkalovsk, Kaliningrad Oblast (This permanent force by error was not included in the original BALTOPS 2015 scenario, as is assigned to Naval Aviation, not Air Force).

http://www.xliby.ru/transport_i_aviacija/vzlyot_2007_12/p15.php