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File Name: NATO Baltic Air Policing in action, late May 2014. Alternate history scenario.

File Submitter: broncepulido

File Submitted: 07 Apr 2014

File Category: GIUK

 

 

NATO Baltic Air Policing in action, late May 2014. Alternate history scenario.

 

A Harpoon Commander's Edition scenario for the EC2003 Battle for GIUK Gap Battleset and the HCDB-130818 1980-2015 era Platform Database.

 

Image source Wikipedia: Description: Su-27SM3 at the Celebration of the 100th anniversary of Russian Air Force. Date 12 August 2012, 16:48:23 Source http://vitalykuzmin.net/?q=node/464 Author Vitaly V. Kuzmin.

 

This scenario is designed to be played from the Blue/Baltic-States-NATO side or from the Red/Belarus-Russia side. You should play a few times first the Blue side to avoid spoilers, and only later play the Red/Belarus-Russia side if you've interest on it, but I think the victory conditions are very difficult to get for an AI-controlled Red side.

 

Years after the demise of Soviet Union, when since March 2004 the three Baltic States Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia joined NATO, the 24/7 task to police the airspace of the Baltic States (without own effective Air Forces) was conducted on three or later four-month rotation from Lithuania's First Air Base in Siauliai Airport (a little famous Soviet base because was home of the Tu-126 Moss AWACS), from 2011 called Ronald Reagan International Airport. Usual deployments consist of only four fighter aircraft and support personnel.

As a reflect of the started 21 March 2014 Ukrainian Crises the NATO Baltic Air Policy detachment in the Ronald Reagan International Airport was reinforced with a greater number of fighters.

But from the other side of the border the President of Russia Vladimir Putin was working for years in a plan to recover the Russian Empire and later Soviet territories, to reinstitute the greatness of Russia, and to guarantee his passage on the History as saviour of the Rodina.

Some months before the Crimean and Ukrainian crises, from 8 December 2013 begun the deployment of updated Su-27SM3 Russian fighters in the Belarusian 61st Fighter Air Base at Baranovichi, with all the pilots deployed qualified as Pilot First Class, and later apparently to form a full Flanker regiment to be based at Lida 206th Assault Air Base from 2015 (the Su-27 was previously retired from Belarusian service in December 2012)..

Also, deployment of advanced Iskander surface-to-surface missiles and a battery of the very impressive S-400 Triumf/SA-21 SAM in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad between Lithuania and Poland (Formerly Konigsberg in East Prussia. What better excuse to request a land bridge from Russia, nobody remember the very near Danzig Corridor and the 1939 German Ultimatum to Poland?) can give some ideas about future events. More clear even from 7 April 2014, when after only a day of occupation by Russian affine forces was proclaimed the Donetsk People's Republic, previously to the general Russian invasion of Ukraine on 10 May 2014 (date hypothetical on writing this text).

At last the Putin's plans were disclosed in late May 2014, when the Belarusian forces, acting as a Russian proxy to avoid a global conflict, and exploiting the numerous minor crises spread in the World (North Korea, Iran, Venezuela, China, India-Pakistan, Middle East, Sahel, ...) and the lack of momentum of the Obama Administration.

As response to the limited war started by Belarus with only a little support from the Russian forces based at Kaliningrad, NATO transferred the forces based in the Baltic States to Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, but expelled them from NATO!, to avoid a generalized conflict.

In consequence, the Baltic States stand alone for the few first days of war, waiting for help only if they keep fighting to survive, and his cause is later supported by the Western Powers, after a political and strategic change.

 

Renamed places are:

AGa Amari AB, EEEI, Estonia.

ZHb, Saint Petersburg, Russia.

ZTa Minsk Machulishchy AB, UMLI, Belarus.

ZUa Hrodna/Grodno IA, UMMG, Belarus.

ZVa Pruzhany AB, UMNV, Belarus.

ZWa Luninets AB, BY-9934, Belarus.

ZXa Lida AB, UMDD, Belarus.

 

Notes:

Belarussian Su-25 are represented by Ukrainian Su-25.

The two MPQ-64 Sentinel radars of the LTAFADB are represented by Giraffe 75 radars.

 

Enrique Mas, April 7, 2014.

 

 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Scenario not modified, post this simply to remark the deployment of 150 US paratroopers in Poland and 450 on the Baltic States referenced near 25 April 2014: http://www.voanews.com/content/us-to-send-600-paratroops-to-poland-baltics/1898765.html

Also, in another reference I don't remember now, the spectulative Mainstay deployed on the scenario in Kaliningrad are deployed actually in Belarus!

Edit, Mainstay and more Flankers deployment at Barinovichi referenced here:

http://www.janes.com/article/35421/russia-deploys-combat-aircraft-to-belarus

and here (24 Su-27SM3 to be deployed before end-2014):

http://en.itar-tass.com/russia/723892

http://globalaviationreport.com/2014/03/19/russian-fighter-jets-and-early-warning-aircraft-deploying-to-belarus/

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  • 2 weeks later...

A second slightly modified scenario, BAL14C, added on May 4, 2014, to reflect some current-history accuracies:

1.- The Danish F-16A MLU deployed are four, not six, and were deployed on April 30, 2014, in the rebuilded and now operative Estonian Air Base of Amari.

2.- The Russian A-50 Mainstay were deployed at Baranovichi, Belarus, not as I imagined at Kaliningrad (My idea was to cover the Western Approaches).

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