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Modern World War III/Battle Ocean 2015


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Here is another main plot to be used for various scenarios. I would be grateful for any opinions, feedback, etc. regarding how plausible it is, what else might happen, etc...

 

The genius of the Chinese plot was its simplicity. The West was prepared to fight a couple of regional wars, but not half-a-dozen all at once. And that was exactly what China and its allies gave them...

 

On August 1, 2015, at 6 AM Greenwich, almost to the minute, simultaneous attacks began around the world...

 

* North Korea initiated an invasion of South Korea; North Korea also launched a series of attacks against Japan designed to cripple their military power and shipping

* China initiated an invasion of Taiwan; China also launched a series of crippling attacks against Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines

* Indonesia initiated invasions of both East Timor and New Guinea; Indonesia also initiated attacks meant to cripple the military of Australia and the Philippines

* Iran, Pakistan, and Yemen initiated an invasion of Oman; they also launched attacks on Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., and Qatar

* Egypt and Syria initiated major attacks on Israel; Egypt has closed the Suez Canal; Egypt and Syria also launched attacks on Saudi Arabia and Libya

* Morocco and Algeria launched attacks on targets in France, Spain, Libya, and Italy

* Kurdish separatists, backed by Iranian military advisers and Chinese money, initiated a full-scale uprising in eastern Turkey

* Albania attacked targets in Greece

* Angola, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique attacked Zambia with the intent to take over and partition the country; Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Mozambique have all declared an alliance with China and closed their ports to Western ships and canceled all sales of oil to the West

* Venezuela invaded Guyana; Venezuela and Cuba attacked Panama, intending to at least temporarily close the Panama Canal

 

The long term goal of this massive, coordinated multinational attack is to give China control over Taiwan and dominance (through its Arab and African partners and client states) over the Middle East and Africa. China would have preferred to leave Israel alone, actually, but it was the price for getting Egypt and Syria to agree to the plan, and China sees the attack on Israel as a critical distraction to the West.

 

So...on a scale of 1 to 10, how plausible is this?

 

Also, how does the rest of the world react? Obviously, the US, Europe, and Australia will fight this new "axis of evil" but what about other countries. I imagine Russia would be going "What the hell just happened?" But who would they side with once they have a chance to think about what is happening? What about Brazil? I imagine they would not be happy with Venezuela at this point. What about India? (I'm guessing China's plan would be...don't put too much on your plate at one time; leave India alone for now and crush them once all the other problems are out of the way. But will it work...what if India and Russia form an alliance and go after Pakistan? Or do something else?)

 

Thoughts? Observations? Comments?

 

Thanks in advance.

 

Mark

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This is a 1, comments below:

 

On August 1, 2015, at 6 AM Greenwich, almost to the minute, simultaneous attacks began around the world...

 

* North Korea initiated an invasion of South Korea; North Korea also launched a series of attacks against Japan designed to cripple their military power and shipping

* China initiated an invasion of Taiwan; China also launched a series of crippling attacks against Vietnam, Japan, and the Philippines

 

Up to here, OK, I can buy this, although the Chinese have a lot to loose, starting with their oil.

 

* Indonesia initiated invasions of both East Timor and New Guinea; Indonesia also initiated attacks meant to cripple the military of Australia and the Philippines

 

Indonesia lacks resources to do all of this at the same time, they would be overwhelmed in short order.

 

* Iran, Pakistan, and Yemen initiated an invasion of Oman; they also launched attacks on Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E., and Qatar

 

Same issue as above, plus the Pakistanis and Saudis are allies, not enemies. And Oman? Iran can close the strait if it whishes without invading Oman. Yemen and the Saudis are enemies and have been for a long time.

 

 

* Egypt and Syria initiated major attacks on Israel; Egypt has closed the Suez Canal; Egypt and Syria also launched attacks on Saudi Arabia and Libya

 

Israel is way more powerful than Egypt and Syria combined, even if you add Jordan - the Egyptians have nothing to gain, same as the Jordans.

 

* Morocco and Algeria launched attacks on targets in France, Spain, Libya, and Italy

 

This is impossible, Algeria and Morocco are mortal enemies and remain at odds over Western Sahara

 

 

* Kurdish separatists, backed by Iranian military advisers and Chinese money, initiated a full-scale uprising in eastern Turkey

 

Plausible is it was against Iraq, but both Iran and Turkey share the same outlook on the Kurds and its not very friendly.

 

* Albania attacked targets in Greece

 

Problem is, Albania, for practical effects lack a military and there's nothing they want on the Greek side of the border, on the Kosovo side, however...

 

* Angola, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique attacked Zambia with the intent to take over and partition the country; Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela, and Mozambique have all declared an alliance with China and closed their ports to Western ships and canceled all sales of oil to the West

 

Highly likely nobody will notice this, just like the war over Congo went unreported.

 

 

* Venezuela invaded Guyana; Venezuela and Cuba attacked Panama, intending to at least temporarily close the Panama Canal

 

IIRC the Chinese already have an stake on the canal.

 

The long term goal of this massive, coordinated multinational attack is to give China control over Taiwan and dominance (through its Arab and African partners and client states) over the Middle East and Africa.

 

They already have significant influence thanks to their buys of resources, they don't need military power. What can happen is that India and the PRC get in a ruckus and the Indians may try to blockade the flow of oil to China. India has already proved to be friendly to Vietnam, and there's the ASEAN and the Spratlys thing.

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Mark, in many ways I agree with JMS. Although the global cauldron is a good common thread to use for campaign generation, this one is more implausible than some of your previous ideas. You've got too many clients for one "super power" to manage. The ChiComs are good, but their not THAT good. With this many banana republics with their fingers in the pie, Clancy's Law of Security applies - The chance of a secret being blown, is directly proportional to the SQUARE of the number of people in on it.

Instead of looking for consensus on ideas, put your ideas into a couple of sceanrios and post them. Good or bad, the feedback will tell you.

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Mark, in many ways I agree with JMS. Although the global cauldron is a good common thread to use for campaign generation, this one is more implausible than some of your previous ideas. You've got too many clients for one "super power" to manage. The ChiComs are good, but their not THAT good. With this many banana republics with their fingers in the pie, Clancy's Law of Security applies - The chance of a secret being blown, is directly proportional to the SQUARE of the number of people in on it.

Instead of looking for consensus on ideas, put your ideas into a couple of sceanrios and post them. Good or bad, the feedback will tell you.

 

Thanks for the feedback on this one. I wasn't sure about some of the specifics, and clearly I was wrong about some of them. I did like the main idea...if you can't beat the Americans in a straight fight, get your little brothers to pile up on him from other directions and then beat him down. But you're definitely right that keeping this a secret AND coordinating the whole thing would probably be impossible. Oh well...back to the drawing board!

 

I do like the idea of a China-India war perhaps getting out of hand...how about this...

 

1) India and Vietnam get mad at China and blockade their shipping

2) China gets mad and sends lots of ships and submarines to blow up Indian and Vietnamese shipping--especially submarines; they have a lot of submarines and even the old ones can still sink ships

3) Pakistan and Iran decide to help China; other Arab and African nations join in, although they do not do much besides cancel oil shipments, close ports, etc. Even so, that's significant. And some nations like Syria might move ships, subs, or aircraft to Iran or Pakistan to help out in the Gulf.

4) The US decides to send escorts to protect oil shipments; they are helped by Japan and Europe and South Korea, who all need the oil to flow

5) Someone sinks a US or European ship (like you didn't see THIS train wreck coming a mile away...)

6) US starts putting more direct pressure on China, who responds by making air and missile strikes on Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan (no invasion, but they're trying to cripple any air power the US and its allies might have)

7) Just because it seems like a good time to do it, North Korea attacks South Korea

8) US, India, and allies take the fight to China, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, and their allies...the goal again is not invasion but simply the destruction of their warfighting capabilities. Once those are gone, after all, China and its allies can say what they want; they cannot threaten their neighbors or the sea lanes anymore. Of course, getting there might take some time...

 

How does this sound? Any better? Any steps or details that need revision?

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Mark, in many ways I agree with JMS. Although the global cauldron is a good common thread to use for campaign generation, this one is more implausible than some of your previous ideas. You've got too many clients for one "super power" to manage. The ChiComs are good, but their not THAT good. With this many banana republics with their fingers in the pie, Clancy's Law of Security applies - The chance of a secret being blown, is directly proportional to the SQUARE of the number of people in on it.

Instead of looking for consensus on ideas, put your ideas into a couple of sceanrios and post them. Good or bad, the feedback will tell you.

 

Thanks for the feedback on this one. I wasn't sure about some of the specifics, and clearly I was wrong about some of them. I did like the main idea...if you can't beat the Americans in a straight fight, get your little brothers to pile up on him from other directions and then beat him down. But you're definitely right that keeping this a secret AND coordinating the whole thing would probably be impossible. Oh well...back to the drawing board!

 

I do like the idea of a China-India war perhaps getting out of hand...how about this...

 

1) India and Vietnam get mad at China and blockade their shipping

2) China gets mad and sends lots of ships and submarines to blow up Indian and Vietnamese shipping--especially submarines; they have a lot of submarines and even the old ones can still sink ships

3) Pakistan and Iran decide to help China; other Arab and African nations join in, although they do not do much besides cancel oil shipments, close ports, etc. Even so, that's significant. And some nations like Syria might move ships, subs, or aircraft to Iran or Pakistan to help out in the Gulf.

4) The US decides to send escorts to protect oil shipments; they are helped by Japan and Europe and South Korea, who all need the oil to flow

5) Someone sinks a US or European ship (like you didn't see THIS train wreck coming a mile away...)

6) US starts putting more direct pressure on China, who responds by making air and missile strikes on Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan (no invasion, but they're trying to cripple any air power the US and its allies might have)

7) Just because it seems like a good time to do it, North Korea attacks South Korea

8) US, India, and allies take the fight to China, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, and their allies...the goal again is not invasion but simply the destruction of their warfighting capabilities. Once those are gone, after all, China and its allies can say what they want; they cannot threaten their neighbors or the sea lanes anymore. Of course, getting there might take some time...

 

How does this sound? Any better? Any steps or details that need revision?

 

Other than the fact that it would take a Nuclear strike to wipe out much of the Republic of China's air force (they, like the Swiss DO have under mountain airbases right?) Red China will have too much on it's plate to successfully pull off all of the above points. Also India involvement will, indirectly set Russia as a close friend to the US due to the India-Russian treaties that have been in force since the 1970s.

 

Also even today with all the issues the US has with Pakistan, I do not see the US giving up so easily on Pakistan.

 

Lastly there is no way that North Korea could sustain an attack against South Korea without the three following items

1) Russia remains completely neutral and is NOT friendly to western powers

2) China must support the attack with their own forces

3) and this is not mutually exclusive to the above but it is the only way to guarantee short term success. North Korea must deploy their nuclear weapons just south of the DMZ to wipe out 2/3rds of the South Korean defensive forces and infrastructure.

 

Ok I am not 10000000% certain on the under mountain bases for Republic of China but other than that I think the above statements are pretty accurate.

Craig P

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Slightly different tack, say by 2015 the PRC has gone on an economic slump, while India is booming and the PRC is hurting from the competition, then oil is struck on the Spratleys:

 

1) The PRC launch a campaign to take over the Spratleys, destroying Vietnamese and Malayan outposts and deploying the ex-Varyag to the area.

2) the US condemns an unprovoked attack on its ASEAN allies, the Vietnamese go for closer ties with India (say, they get Tejas light jets at discount prices to replace MiG-21s), Indian ships start basing out of Cam Rahn.

3) A thoroughly irked PRC decides to teach the VN a lesson (they did in '79) and mines the approaches to Haiphong, Cam Rahn and Ho Chi Min city using subs, unfortunately sinking an Indian destroyer and a merchant ship

4) Amid a nationalistic uproar, the Indian government orders a blockade of Chinese shipping (to Europe and oil from the Gulf).

5) Iran protests the boarding of its tankers, Pakistan starts escorting Chinese shipping out of the Gulf, to a Mid Ocean Rendezvous Point with the PRC Navy. US/EU urges both sides for restrain.

6) An Indian plane tracking the Chinese convoys is shot down by... (choose, Pakistani fighters or J-15s from Varyag).

7) In retaliation, the Indian Akula attacks the PRC convoy sinking tankers and escorts - the Indian government launches also a retaliatory attack on the Pakistani Navy airbase at Karachi (IIRC PNS Mehran)

8) A new Indo-Pakistani war erupts

9) the USN/EU forces are deployed to escort international shipping in the area, friction ensues with the Iranians.

10) for whatever reason (USN shoots down an airlines like in '88, or the PRC bribes them, or for internal reasons), Iran decides to close the strait to international shipping, this is too much for the "international community" and they decide to put an end to the whole issue "neutralising" Iran, the Chinese step up their support, etc, etc.

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The most useful source of scenario ideas, IMHO, or at least in my own experience, has been the actual historical record taken in combination with bleeding edge news stories.

 

Take any country, or a region. Examine - even in rudimentary fashion - its political, economic and military history. Look at its strategic alliances, past, present and future potential. How has its politics developed in the past, and where are they headed? What is the lifeblood of its economy? Where are the stress points?

 

Any scenario - utterly cogent, wildly implausible, or properly considered 'a just maybe' - can thereby be achieved.

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