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Foreign warships will need Iran's permission


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From Fars News Agency

 

[excerpt]

 

Tuesday 03 Jan 2012

Tehran - 22:17 / GMT - 18:47

 

Foreign Warships Will Need Iran's Permission to Pass through Strait of Hormoz

 

TEHRAN (FNA)- All foreign warships will soon be unable to pass through the Strait of Hormoz unless they first receive a permission from the Iranian Navy ships deployed in the region, an Iranian parliamentarian said, adding that the country's lawmakers are now working on a relevant plan as the strategic waterway is part of the Iranian territories.

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From DefenseNews

 

[excerpt]

 

Tension Soars on Iran Warning to U.S. Navy Ship

By MARC BURLEIGH, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Published: 3 Jan 2012 10:44

 

TEHRAN - Iran's military on Jan. 3 warned one of the U.S. Navy's biggest aircraft carriers not to return to the Persian Gulf, in an escalating showdown over Tehran's nuclear drive that could pitch into armed confrontation.

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Iran's military threats are generally laughable, its true, but even their idle threat is enough to mess with the market, and it may not be the Stennis or even a US warship that actually gets attacked (if ever).

 

Plenty of tankers made it through the Hormuz during the 'Tanker War' but it was generally unpleasant and more than a few civilians died.

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Does this apply to the Omani bit of the strait?

 

Who knows? The statement was attributed to a politician, who probably is least among those who know where Iranian supreme dominion over the Strait ends and the Gulf of Oman begins. :rolleyes:

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Does this apply to the Omani bit of the strait?

 

Who knows? The statement was attributed to a politician, who probably is least among those who know where Iranian supreme dominion over the Strait ends and the Gulf of Oman begins. :rolleyes:

 

Or the fact that half of the Strait belongs to Oman.

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From Chicago Tribune

 

[excerpt]

 

Analysis: Iran could close Hormuz -- but not for long

Peter Apps, Political Risk Correspondent Reuters

9:39 a.m. CST, January 5, 2012

 

LONDON (Reuters) - Should Iran's rulers ever make good their threats to block the Straits of Hormuz, they could almost certainly achieve their aim within a matter of hours. ...

 

Few believe Tehran could keep the straits closed for long -- perhaps no more than a handful of days -- but that alone would still temporarily block shipment of a fifth of all traded global oil, sending prices rocketing and severely denting hopes of global economic recovery.

 

CV32: Could Iran take and hold onto sea control in the Hormuz for more than a short period? Unlikely. Could they close it for more than a "handful of days"? Oh, I think so, and the 'analysis' here is a tad deficient, imho. Indeed it would have severe, perhaps catastrophic, results for Iran. But rational or logical strategy hasn't always been a key tenet of Iranian political-military action, afaik. It would depend on the definition of "closed", of course, but I think the Hormuz could be made untenable for merchant (i.e. tanker) traffic for more than a handful of days. How? Mines. Sea mines require no command & control once laid, no comms traffic, no link with Tehran and its leadership. They don't shy away from combat, and they don't run scared when faced with 'shock and awe'. They just wait. And once the first tanker starts to sink and spill its million gallons of crude into the Hormuz, chaos will reign. Neither the petrochemical companies, Lloyds of London, or the tanker crews will be anxious to send another through until the mines have been cleared. And I'm betting that would take more than a "handful of days".

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I would hope that there would be assets in the areas looking for this type of action by the Iranians.

 

Me too, but with the amount of traffic passing through the Hormuz daily, much of it military and civilian alike, I wouldn't bet on anyone spotting mine laying until it is too late. As the article did mention, even the suggestion of potential minefields might be enough. Let alone actual mines.

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