ROK/DPRK Atillery Duel

[VCDH]

Good morning,

 

Seems that one of the few surviving insects that didn't make it into the daily diet of the North Korean population found itself up someones A** this morning causing DPRK forces to shell ROK forces on Yeonpyeong Island at approximately 1430 local today. ROK forces conducted counter-battery operations and fighters were vectored into the area around the island. 2 ROK Marines were killed and 10 more personnel were wounded. There was the usual amount of damage caused by approximately 200 rounds of artillery. ROK artillery fired approximately 80 rounds into North Korea.

 

The shelling happens during the annual Hoguk military exercise. There have been the usual political announcements and market fallout.

 

Some extra information provided by Stratfor.

 

Later

D

[CV32]

This tends to happen when you do not put a neighbourhood bully on his a** in the dust the first time and let him know that you are not going to put up with his krap.

 

(Yes, an oversimplification of the dynamics at play here but nevertheless boiled down to the raw ingredients).

[Silent Hunter UK]

Unfortunately, said neighbourhood bully has a considerable amount of artillery and ballistic missiles...

 

Let's hope this doesn't turn into anything bigger. It's 10.57pm now in Korea; we'll have to see what the night brings.

[PAK]

To make matters worse that neighbourhood bully apparently has problems with his personality - there is a struggle for power transition in the North and it is quite probable, that the party, bureaucracy and the army are more or less fragmented into factions.

[Gunny]

After sinking Cheonan corvette, they now shell military bases and civilians... How long will it last?

Regards,

 

FG

[PAK]

ROK is not inclined in any way to go for war (imagine - Seoul is in range of northern artillery) but will have to do something to avoid losing face. South Korea's president promised "enormous retaliation" if attacks like today's would happen again.

[Silent Hunter UK]

George Washington carrier group to conduct exercises off Korea

[Gunny]

I went to Korea in 1995. "Peaceful" year, but lot of tension anyway. Soldiers patrolling on the beaches at night, concrete blocks ready to fall down on the road in case of mechanized offensive, MP checkpoints on the road, unusual road signs such as "bridge doesn't stand MBTs rolling over it"... But looks like people try to live normal lives even if "Comical Kim" flexes his "muscles".

 

Have a nice day, regards,

 

FG

[Silent Hunter UK]

unusual road signs such as "bridge doesn't stand MBTs rolling over it"

 

They have similar things in Germany, of course.

[VCDH]

This is the second time there's been a muted response from the ROK. Governments that don't protect their people usually don't last very long. I can't really see a third attack going without answer, not that it's un-needed. I for one think that a rather large dust up would be in order to remind everyone who's Top Kick.

 

Later

D

[CV32]

This is the second time there's been a muted response from the ROK. Governments that don't protect their people usually don't last very long. I can't really see a third attack going without answer, not that it's un-needed. I for one think that a rather large dust up would be in order to remind everyone who's Top Kick.

 

I agree. I believe the most appropriate low level response they should have considered, if they were inclined to go the 'low level' route, was to absolutely hammer the offending artillery positions into rubble. It would have been a demonstration of resolve and capability, and at the very least, would have removed a portion of the spectre of KPA artillery that seems to be hanging over heads in the ROK.

[Silent Hunter UK]

This is the second time there's been a muted response from the ROK. Governments that don't protect their people usually don't last very long. I can't really see a third attack going without answer, not that it's un-needed. I for one think that a rather large dust up would be in order to remind everyone who's Top Kick.

 

absolutely hammer the offending artillery positions into rubble.

 

The problem is actually doing that; the DPRK are rather good at hiding their artillery and with self-propelled systems like the FROG-7 or the Grad, they can fire and run.

[CV32]

The problem is actually doing that; the DPRK are rather good at hiding their artillery and with self-propelled systems like the FROG-7 or the Grad, they can fire and run.

 

They're not that good. The border areas between the DPRK and ROK are some of the most closely observed pieces of real estate in the world.

 

Rest assured that the ROK and USFK know full well where the offending artillery (and note in particular that I am pointing specifically to the batteries that fired on the island) are located. Or, at least, where they were located. This particular area is regularly the site of KPA artillery drills, so it is not likely a case of highly mobile artillery moving in and then out to parts unknown.

 

As time passes, the ability to exercise the option evaporates politically, of course, and to a lesser extent, militarily.

[VCDH]

Well trained the NKs they may be, but the fact remains that compared to the ROK they are pretty much armed with sticks and stones. I doubt any widescale attack by the NKs may reach a few miles into ROK territory but that woud be it. In fact the only reason I believe the NKs are pursuring nuclear weapons is to even their huge technological disadvantage. Even then, it might not do the job because of the similar response that would surely follow in the form of tactical nukes.

 

The big factor here is China. They look at North Korea as a buffer between it and the west. The more crazy these crazies act [and IMHO they really are in a separate reality] then the more likely the chance of a fight that the NKs would most likely lose. China probably wouldn't intervene on a large military scale prefering to force a change of government that would result in a less radical regime. Many people would be shot, but from what I understand the NKs are used to that.

 

As for popular opinion, the American one doesn't count. It's not their country. It's the ROK popular opinion that counts and if popular opinion wants paypack, then payback it'll be. There'll be losses but that's to be expected in any case.

 

Personally I think the ROK can probably handle it on their own.

 

Later

D

[CV32]

South Korean defense minister resigns

 

Seems the lack of a credible response to DPRK aggression has claimed its first next victim.