Herman

The Drudge Report

REPORT: CHINA, RUSSIA TO 'REHEARSE INVASION OF TAIWAN'

Thu Mar 17 2005 11:02:09 ET

MOSCOW, March 17. (RIA Novosti)-Yesterday, Chief of the Russian General Staff Yury Baluyevsky left for China to settle a scandal over the first Russian-Chinese military exercise, Commonwealth-2005, which is due to be held this fall off the Yellow Sea coast, writes Kommersant.

The initial plans were to practice operational teamwork in combating terrorism during the exercise. However, Beijing, skillfully changing the format of the exercise, has tried to re-orient the two countries' armies to practicing an invasion of Taiwan.

The choice of where the exercise will take place became a stumbling block. The Russian military selected the Xinjiang-Uigur autonomous region, basing their choice on the area's problematic nature due to Uigur separatists and its proximity to Central Asia, which has become an arena in the fight against international terrorism. However, Beijing flatly rejected the proposal. Instead, it suggested the Zhejiang province near Taiwan.

A joint exercise in this area would look too provocative and trigger a strong reaction not only from Taiwan but also America and Japan, which recently included the island in the zone of their common strategic interests.

Beijing is trying to use Russia as an additional lever of pressure on the disobedient island to show it that its policy is also causing dissatisfaction in Russia, from which the Taiwanese are expecting assistance in their dialogue with Beijing and bid to join the WTO and the UN.

On the Russian military's insistence, the exercise was shifted north to the Shangdong peninsula. However, the Chinese are trying to change the format of the exercise with proposals to enlarge the contingents with Marines and Pacific Fleet warships. Marine landings to seize the area will be practiced during the "antiterrorist" exercise.

Russia's agreement to hold the exercise will inevitably cause a furor in America, Japan and Taiwan. But a refusal will spoil relations with China, which three months ago courteously agreed to Russia's proposal to hold an exercise.

Developing...

One of the finest Harpoon AARs that I have had the pleasure of reading.

Thanks for sharing it with us. Personally, it is reports like this that really motivate me as a designer to create more scenarios.

AAR: Resolve [spoiler Alert]

A very interesting mission this is: to suppress the enemy without causing too much damage. How ironic can orders be? This scenario is fraught with real life Rules of Engagement.

I launched my Ready +5 fighters immediately with supporting AEW units. I also launched my SEAD aircraft while re-arming others for the SEAD role because I didn’t want to inflict any more damage that absolutely necessary. I calculated that if I could keep the enemy blind, my bombers could penetrate without opposition.

One Hawkeye was assigned to cover Taiwan, who was lacking in any kind of AEW support. She looked pretty naked and open to attack. I also transferred my B-2 Spirits and B-1 Lancers to Taiwan in order to minimize their fuel demands.

Meanwhile, my CVBG had to play an offensive lineman’s role. [The designer of this scenario must be a football aficionado.] I was going to open a hole in China’s defensive line so that my running backs [b-1s and B-2s] could penetrate and run like crazy for the goal line, the ICBM base. The orders stated that the bombers had to make their ingress between the bases of Longyou and Beihai. I selected a point between Sek Kong and Beihai in order to create a rift in the IADS. This was the widest stretch of territory between all the bases. I hoped that I could escape detection and any roving air patrols.

My CAPs constantly encountered roving enemy air patrols of various sizes. These were easily dispatched from long range with BVR missile engagements. The enemy continued into the face of the missile fire without regard for their personal safety and were summarily butchered.

The SEAD planes were also enjoying success. Their volleys of decoys against Suixi, Ganghou, and Sek Kong coaxed the defending SAM batteries to radiate with active radar. These systems were quickly silenced by HARM-equipped aircraft following behind the decoys. Once a major breach was established in this new Great Wall of China, my fighters were able to hold the breach open whilst the stealthy bombers stole in on their mission.

After going ‘feet dry’ over the coast of China, the bombers plotted a circuitous route to the Datong ICBM complex in hopes of avoiding enemy contact. One nebulous radar return from any one of them could ruin their entire day.

As the strikers approached from the SW, all four aircraft separated to attack individually. This was done for two reasons. The multiple axes of attack allowed for the units to triangulate on radar contacts and also allowed for the possibility that if one or more elements were intercepted, the survivors could continue the mission. A Phalcon AEW unit was operating directly over the ICBM complex. This was very bad news as any radar return received by them would alert the entire region and the bombers were essentially defenceless.

The ‘escorting’ B-1 Lancers pinpointed the defending SAM batteries at 20nm range. There were a lot of them so they concentrated on the most lethal ones, the SA-10s and the LY-60s. They lofted their JSOW munitions and followed them in. If the B-2 strikers were detected, they would have to sacrifice themselves in hopes of drawing off any interceptors or SAMs. Brave men they were, indeed.

The JSOW weapons were easily shot down without inflicting much damage. Now the pucker factor was intense. The bombers closed on their targets, the command bunkers. Sweat was rolling off their brows as the radar intensity levels increased as more waves were reflected off of their aircraft. Would they be as invisible as advertised?

One Spirit found itself within range and loosed its Penetrators towards the bunkers. She immediately tried to pull off target but, being unwieldy aircraft, could not execute her turn quickly enough and carried on over the target. Ground defences identified her and killed her with SAM/AAA fire. Luckily, her bombs found their targets and demolished all three bunkers. The second B-2 was not needed. It was now time to get out of Dodge.

The surviving strikers were still on the egress portion of their flight when Victory was awarded over their radios. The ICBM command complex had been destroyed for the singular loss of a B-2 Spirit. It was expensive for the aircrew but cheap in terms of the entire war.

Thanks for an interesting and challenging scenario.

AAR: Operation Thistle - BAT90B2 [spoiler Alert]

I examined the forces available under my command and surmised that the subsurface threat would be high due to the fairly high number of ASW-capable platforms. I hoped that my units would actually be able to detect the submarines in the first place. Since the orders allowed for it, I re-configured my fighter assets to full defensive mode with the AMRAAM in lieu of the less effective SkyFlash AAMs.

My AEW assets were positioned north of the Faeroe Islands and well north of the Norwegian bases. They immediately detected EW emissions but could do nothing about them since I had no EW assets of my own.

A flight of Fencers stole in and detected my Oslo-class FF right away. This earned her a salvo of SS-N-12 Sandbox missiles which promptly blew her out of the water.

SSN Valiant caught scent of a submarine and quickly called in an Orion to prosecute it. Unfortunately, it turned out to be just a whale wandering by; a nice diversion. However, the Orion was armed with Harpoons so immediately put in an attack on a nearby SAG centred on the CG Slava to no effect. A Norwegian diesel submarine was also ordered to intercept along with all available ASuW forces on the air bases.

Meanwhile, the Norwegians, Swedes, and British fighters were slowing winning the aerial battle. The position of Harstad made it very challenging. It was forward enough to allow the Fulcrums based there plenty of manoeuvring latitude. The EW environment was really knocking my aerial picture for a loop but must have done similar things to the Russians as I was often able to sneak in and fire deadly AMRAAMs and escape without any return fire even though the Russian missiles had greater range than my AMRAAMs.

An attack from ALCMs was detected near Gardermoen and easily defeated. However, I worried that it was going to be a very long day since the AI could conceivably fire unlimited numbers of these stealthy missiles. It only takes a few to ruin anyone’s day so I moved my AEW assets ever closer to the Russian bases on the Kola peninsula in hopes of earlier detection. Unfortunately, this move garnered the attention of Foxhounds on patrol and the Sentry was sent scurrying for friendly air cover. This was going to prove a difficult exercise. Eventually, I was able to determine a point that was just outside the patrol range of the Foxhounds. I was pretty certain that my AEW aircraft were out of range but it still disconcerting every time I saw the interceptors come rushing at the Sentry only to turn back from lack of fuel.

Roving groups of Fencer bombers were detected and dispatched with Sidewinders relatively easily. It would prove to be the only easy part of the afternoon.

Sure enough, successive waves of ALCMs were detected approaching Bergen but picked up early enough to ensure each was destroyed.

The Time-Over-Target strike on the Slava SAG was perfectly executed and resulted in the destruction of the Slava and another cruiser. A nearby Tornado promptly destroyed the ASW helo coverage and set the stage for the diesel submarine to penetrate the screen. Kobben unleashed her torpedoes and killed DDG Udaloy, DDG Kashin, and CG Kresta while biting off a piece of the CG Kara.

The Sentry positioned over the Faeroes got the surprise of their life when a flight of Fulcrums ‘materialized’ right next to them and unleashed a volley of Alamo AAMs. They quickly beat feet while screaming for cover. Luckily for them, a flight of Tornados was in the vicinity to dispatch the intruders. It was very unnerving to count down the seconds as the missiles closed on my Sentry; all the while praying that they would run out of gas. To add insult to injury, it happened again! Those Fulcrums are bad news. My AEW survived the second raid, too.

With the Slava SAG pretty much destroyed, a second, more powerful SAG, was detected on the horizon. This one was centred on BCGN Lazarev. The Orion that detected it quickly loosed 4 Harpoons and was rewarded with 2 hits on a Kara-class cruiser as the SAG was operating under EmCon and thus did not detect the ASMs until it was too late. A second ASuW effort was organized and launched.

The BCGN was a real threat since my oil rigs were already under its offensive SSM umbrella. My only hope was to keep the enemy blind as to the position of my vessels or else I could expect another barrage of those super lethal projectiles. The SSN Valiant crept to a position in front of the SAG and waited. She loosed her torpedoes and ran for her life but could not evade the 12 torpedoes fired back at her. Her consolation was to destroy the BCGN and 2 DDGs with her weapons.

The second airstrike destroyed the remainder of the SAG and the rest of the game was spent maintaining barrier CAPs and hunting down submarines attempting to approach the oil rigs. As expected, intermittent ALCM attacks kept the defenders on their toes and victory was granted with 2 hours remaining on the clock.

Thanks for a very enjoyable scenario.

If you want a simple reason for the absence of US forces, you can use that Taiwan/PRC situation to justify it.

Also, you can make up tons of reasons. How about a killer Tsunami that affects the entire western seaboard? Military forces are held back for relief efforts. One idea that I intend to use is to postulate that the San Andreas fault finally gives way and plunges much of California all the way up to Vancouver into the Pacific.

You think that American forces are going to be a bit distracted?

Whatever you decide, should be fine. You set your own realism. Other folks can choose to believe or not believe in your story. It's only background. Before the Twin Tower Attacks, no one would have thought that using airliners was realistic, either.

Russia: No System Will Stop New Missiles

By STEVE GUTTERMAN

Associated Press Writer

March 1, 2005, 4:16 PM EST

MOSCOW -- Russia will develop missiles impervious to any defense, Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said Tuesday in an apparent allusion the nascent U.S. missile defense system.

A year ago, President Vladimir Putin said Russia could build unrivaled new strategic weapons, and in November he said it is developing a new nuclear missile system unlike any weapon other countries have or could come up with in the near future.

Ivanov suggested the weapons would be based on the mobile version of the Russian Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles and on a new sea-based system, the Bulava, according to Interfax news agency.

"There is not and will not be any defense against these missiles," he said, according to Interfax.

The Topol-M can hit targets more than 6,000 miles away, and has been in silos since 1998, with about 40 on duty now, according to military officials. Military officials have said they plan to begin deploying the mobile version this year.

Ivanov said the missiles would be for defense and not be intended for use against any country, but he added that "Russia is stretched across 10 times zones, we have many neighbors, and not all of them are as predictable as European states," according to Interfax.

In December, Putin encouraged the Defense Ministry to keep up production of new strategic missile systems, a process slowed in the past by a shortage of funds.

"Russia will ... remain a major nuclear power," Ivanov said, according to Interfax. "But we will not bake missiles like pies. Their quantity should be such that it allows for the provision of our own security in any potential development of the international situation."

Russia opposed Washington's withdrawal in 2002 from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in order to deploy a national missile defense shield, saying the 30-year-old U.S.-Soviet pact was a key element of international security.

Russian officials subsequently tempered their criticism. Putin said it was a "mistake" that would hurt global security but not threaten Russia.

The ABM treaty banned missile defense systems on the assumption that the fear of retaliation would prevent each nation from launching a first strike -- a strategy known as mutually assured destruction.

The Bush administration has said its prospective missile defense system would be aimed against potential missile threats from nations such as Iraq or North Korea, and would be unable to fend off a massive nuclear strike Russia is capable of launching.

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/wi...2C6251739.story

You might be looking in the ScenShare folder. The HCDBE is posted to the FoSS folder here: HCDBE

For Rene's convenience, room has now been made available for the HCDBE to be hosted on the ScS site, as well.

Here is the info from a very old version of the Harpoon Paper rules. They may have been superseded by later versions.

IRST - 20nm

FLIR - 20nm for surface contacts (35nm if previously detected) Subs during snorkel operations at 10nm

Ship IR - 20nm

ESM - P(detection) = 80% at 110% of the radar horizon between the two units

Detects missile radar homer at 5nm

RWR - only tells that they are under attack from Radar-guided weapons

Cheers,

Herman

Yes, IIRC, the aircraft evasion behaviour was not de-activated until after the 16b8 version. I'm certain that someone will correct me if I am wrong here.

When HC2005 is released, I don't think that you will see this avoidance problem any longer.

Doesn't anyone else find this strategem reminiscent of the Electronic Fence that Secretary of Defense McNamara proposed to throw up around the Ho Chi Minh Trail and North Vietnam?

I am pretty certain that the Aircraft Evasion behaviour has been changed for the HC2005 version. This is the latest beta release from AGSI 16b8+. If you are still using the 16b3 version, then the AI has problems with penetrating SAM/AAM 'bubbles'.

Assuming that you have no problems with the Evasion behaviour, try launching groups of the same size. This might help the co-ordination. The calculation of distance is pretty easily done so you should be able to delay the closer aircraft so that all aircraft arrive TOT.

Don't forget to allow for weapons ranges. i.e. Do you want the ARMs to fire at the same time the bombers arrive on the target or a few minutes prior to their arrival?

Sounds like you have an interesting situation brewing. Let me know if this stuff helps. If you need more help, feel free to post the file so that others can try to help.

Cheers.

Wow, February seems to be the lucky month for the Harpoon community.

2 new sites to support our hobby. Such an embarrassment of riches.

WarfareHQ.com is the latest site to host a dedicated Harpoon discussion section and File Archive. Players and designers can also post their scenarios, databases, After-Action Reports, and any other manner of files to the File Archives. All versions of computer Harpoon and even the paper rules may be discussed.

On a personal note, the number of different sites is not meant as competition with one another but is only meant to give us another place to discuss Harpoon and Harpoon-related topics. I will be joining and supporting any site that hosts Harpoon discussion and encourage everyone else to do the same.

Hi guys,

after a "Very educational night" along Rook and HermanH, i'm thinking more and more about "specialized" databases, let's call them "thematics" databases, as they'll be intended to be exhaustive on a determined geographic area (Europe,Pacific,IO), timeline (Cold's war end '89-'91, Lebanon,...) or a fictional background (WWIII, United States of Europe,...).

So, are proposing Thematic databases for not just geographic regions but also time periods? i.e. MEDC 1960 - 1980, MEDC 1980 - 1990, MEDC, 1990 - 2005,....

I thought that you were originally suggesting DBs on a geographic basis that would encompass all time periods? i.e. GIUK, NACV, MEDC, IOPG, and WestPac.