CV32

Antiship Missile Lessons from Sinking of the Moskva (Proceedings, May 2022)

Russia Likely has Local Air Superiority in Donbas, but it May Not Matter (RUSI)

Russian submarine rescue ship Kommuna reportedly headed to the site of the Moskva sinking.

Welcome!

A similar modeling:

Neptunes, the MOSKVA, and How Not to Sink a Cruiser (Real Clear Defense)

Eight New Points on the Porcupine: More Ukrainian Lessons for Taiwan (War on the Rocks)

Notable for me in the photo above:

1. The 3R41 Volna (NATO Top Dome) fire control radar for the S-300F Fort (NATO SA-N-6a Grumble) air defence system in its usual, standby position, rather than appearing to have been in the process of engaging anything.

2. The Osa-2M (NATO SA-N-4b Gecko) air defence systems, on either side of the hangar, are still in their retracted positions inside their cylindrical enclosures, rather than appearing to have been in the process of engaging anything.

This seems to be strongly suggestive of a ship that was caught entirely by surprise.

The area of the apparent damage/fire -- just aft of the P-1000 Vulkan (NATO SS-N-12 Sandbox mod 2) antiship missile launchers, and just ahead of the funnels -- makes sense for a missile(s) hit. Given that active radar guided antiship missiles (like Neptun) would ordinarily home on the centroid of the radar return.

Notably, there are a pair of AK-630M CIWS in this area, lending more credence to the idea that the air defences of Moskva were completely surprised.

A tremendous amount of work went into the HCWW database but it only managed to attract a handful of scenarios.

Part of the reason might be the fact that the code is not particularly suited for gunnery warfare.

2022 WWIII Video Game Tournament Championship (Third World War 1987)

Re Moskva:

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/04/analysis-chain-of-negligence-caused-the-loss-of-the-moskva-cruiser/

Good reading.

https://rockymountainnavy.com/2022/04/14/moskva-burning-using-the-wargame-harpoon-v-from-admiraltytrilogy-com-to-assess-the-story/

Yet another twist ... she has sunk while under tow, according to Moscow.

2 hours ago, Silent Hunter UK said:

DoD has said it is still afloat and heading for Sevastopol.

Yes, I see a US defence official has stated she is still afloat and moving east. Possibly under tow. There are a congregation of Russian search & rescue and support vessels in the area, and Russian warships in the Black Sea appear to have moved generally away from the Ukrainian coast (and thus away from the potential missile threat.) The presence of an orbiting Global Hawk (callsign Forte10) southwest of Crimea is probably providing superb and timely intel.

There appears to be a strong possibility that Moskva has been sunk.

3 hours ago, Silent Hunter UK said:

Ukrainians are claiming to have hit Moskva with two cruise missiles and set it on fire.

Reuters is reporting the Russians have admitted serious damage and a complete evacuation of the crew due to an ammunition explosion and fire. Ukraine claims hits from two Neptun coastal defence antiship missiles. This is big.

Its now been a month since the war in Ukraine began, and although I am sure many of you have been watching closely, there hasn't been much chatter about it here.

Some of the Twitter feeds that I have been following, and which you might also find useful:

H.I. Sutton

Modern War Institute

ISW (Institute for the Study of War)

Calibre Obscura

Russian Defense Policy

Christo Grozev, Eliot Higgins and Bellingcat

ELINT News

Rob Lee

Jomini of the West

Intel Crab

Ukraine Weapons Tracker

Michael Kofman

OSINTtechnical

MilitaryLand.net

Not an exhaustive list but lots of useful material here.

Abundantly clear now that at least some aspect of the long standing speculation is over. 😬

As of 21 February:

If New Looks could kill: Russia’s military capability in 2022 (IISS, 15 February 2022)

Black Sea flagship Slava class cruiser Moskva has joined her sisters Varyag and Ustinov in the Med. Three Slavas in the Med!

The phibgru has entered the Dardanelles enroute to the Black Sea.

The Project 636.3 (Kilo) class sub Rostov-on-Don is due to return to the Black Sea on 11 February.

10 hours ago, eeustice said:

Harpoon has been around since the early 90's. I purchased my first copy on 5 1/4 inch floppy disks. It existed as a board game before that.

 

1979 for paper and 1989 for the PC game.

Welcome to the forum, Jason. 🙂

The Russian phibgru made a brief stop at Tartus, Syria and is now reportedly underway again.

Meanwhile, the Ustinov group entered the Med through Gibraltar yesterday and the Varyag group has also entered the Med via Suez.

There are now two Slavas in the Med, something which I think has not happened in a long time (if ever.)