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Indian Submarine Incursion 2016. Hypothetical/Historical Scenario.

A Harpoon Commander's Edition scenario for EC2003 Battle for the IOPG Battleset and the new HCDB2-161204 1980-2025 era Platform Database (But because the limited employed units, it's also playable with the old HCDB- 1980-2015 era Platform Database). This simple and introductory but historical accurate scenario is designed with advanced Scenario Editor and to be run with HCE 2015.008+ or later.

Image:An Indian Shishumar-class submarine on 29 July 2006, a German-designed and build conventional diesel-electric submarine, of the successful and widely exported Type 209/1500 model. Indian Navy official photo, took from Wikipedia Commons.

This scenario is designed to be played from the Blue/Indian side or from the Red/Pakistani side. You should play a few times first the Blue/Indian side to avoid spoilers, and only later play the Red/Pakistani side.

After the Second Cold War originated middle in the second presidential term of Vladimir Putin from May 2012, starting in 2014 and in the successive years the world was full of naval, military and security incidents.

Some were related with the Second Cold War, others not.
Between those last ones the supposed Indian submarine incursion near the Pakistani shores in 14 November 2016, detected and repealed by the Pakistani Navy, was one of the most worrying.
The incident was denounced by Pakistan and denied by India, and probably involved a conventional Indian diesel-electric submarine executing intelligence operations. The incident was not clear because apparently was buried in the media and forgotten few days later.
At time of building this scenario no other news were released on the matter.

A short list to remember them, mostly as result of President of Russia Vladimir Putin (ex-KGB lieutenant colonel) actions, provoking in succession the Crimea, Ukraine, Donetsk, Baltic States, October 2014 Swedish submarine incursion, G-20 Brisbane meeting naval crisis, November 2014 Faslane submarine incident, frigate Yaroslav Mudryy February "Channel Dash", April 2015 Finnish submarine incursion (for many observers causing the pre-mobilization of Finland reserve forces), Russian intervention in Syria from 30 September 2015, violation by Russian military helicopters of the Finnish and Georgian borders on 10 December 2015, March 2016 detection by the French of a Russian submarine near Bay of Biscay, violation by Russian military helicopters of the Polish border on 18 April 2016, the confuse Russian submarine B-265 Krasnodar incident with Polish warships (and the consecutive Putin sack of Russian Baltic Fleet numerous commanders), the HMS Montrose confuse and dangerous encounter with the new Baltic Sea Fleet Russian corvette Soobrazitelnyy in middle of the BALTOPS 2016 exercise in June 2016, the failed (in relation to carrier-based air strike operations) deployment of the Russian Northern Fleet Admiral Kuznetsov CVBG near the coasts of Syria from 4 November 2016 and the successive incident with a stalking Dutch submarine on 9 November, and with constant and multiple overflies with military warplanes entangled in potential incidents with commercial and military flights in Europe. That without counting with other unrelated naval incidents, just as the Iranian seizure of the Maersk Tigris in 28 April 2015, or the mid-October 2016 launching of anti-ship missiles against UAE and US warships from the Yemen shores and the successive retaliation with cruise missiles by US forces (and neither counting in landlocked actions, as the continuous counter-Daesh operations in Middle East).
And all those incidents without counting those more towards Far East with China as a less perceived and growing problem, and his own many types generated incidents. China was building structures with military capabilities, including from 2012 more relevant structures, as the 3000+ meters long (Very Large Airport in Harpoon parameters) runway in Fiery Cross Reef (finished at March 2016), and more important, building multiple artificial reefs and islands above previous simple shoals for claiming territory, and for. At last in an undetermined date late April 2015 China claims as territorial waters the 12 nautical miles circling his "new" islands.
As the US official doctrine is Freedom of Navigation (FON) worldwide on international waters (same in the Baltic and Black Seas), and as in this case with fears about a decision about not to send naval vessels into the zone would inadvertently help the Chinese build their own case for sovereignty in the area, some air and surface elements of US Navy begin to orbit near the Chinese claimed areas, but not crossing the 12 nm line surrounding the islands.

Both Indian and Pakistani navies must prevail over the other, to show his resolution to control the Arabian Sea and the access to the main Pakistani ports, and to prevent the other side to overcome. Only eluding that unbalanced situation, probably directing towards a nuclear escalade, a major conflict could be avoided.

Enrique Mas, December 6, 2016.

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